Opinion | Why the Jays’ quest to win the AL East is getting even harder

The American League East has long been considered baseball’s toughest division, but the recent move to a more balanced schedule has revealed just how dominant this group really is.

The Blue Jays and their four divisional rivals combined for a .623 winning percentage in April. That was the third-highest mark of any month this century, and the highest by a division with five teams.

Equally impressive, the AL East’s plus-146 run differential was the fifth-most by a division in a single month, and all five teams outscored their opponents. Compare that to the AL Central, where the Minnesota Twins were the only club that could claim the same.

The Tampa Bay Rays are on pace for 128 wins, the Baltimore Orioles were playing at a 110-win clip, and the Jays aren’t far behind at 101 despite an 18-11 record that is only good enough for third in the division.

So, what gives? Is the AL East better than ever before? Are these records sustainable, or is this just a fluke that can be chalked up to small sample sizes?

Partial answers to those questions can be found in the revamped schedule.

MLB recently dropped the number of divisional games each team plays from 76 to 52. For the Jays, that means instead of seeing the Rays, Yankees, Orioles and Red Sox 19 times each, they only play 13.

That’s a big drop, and it’s most evident at the start of the season. April is typically littered with divisional matchups, but that hasn’t been the case under the new system. Last season through 28 games, the Jays played an AL East opponent 14 times. After Monday night’s 6-5 loss to the Red Sox, they have played just seven this year.

In previous campaigns, AL East teams started by beating up on each other. This year, they’re securing wins elsewhere. The Jays’ record would be good enough for first place in the Central or West. In the East, a .651 percentage meant they were five games back of Tampa.

“I think with everyone playing everyone, every series is equally as important,” Jays manager John Schneider said. “It is easier to make up ground or put some length between you and a divisional opponent playing them more, but I think it’s good that everyone’s playing everyone and that it evens out over the course of the year.”

The Jays have played 18 per cent of their regular-season games, but only 13 per cent of their matchups against the East. They have yet to play the second-place Orioles, and Monday night’s loss was their first time facing the Red Sox.

The lack of early divisional games helps explain why the Jays are tied with the Orioles for the most difficult remaining schedule. Their upcoming opponents have a combined winning percentage of .529, while the Yankees and Rays are close behind at .518, tied for fourth in that category.

Once the intradivision games start to pile up, the percentages should drop. The Rays (5-2) and Jays (4-3) are currently the only AL East teams with winning records against divisional rivals, while the Orioles are 4-5 and the Yankees are 3-3. The Red Sox were worst of all at 4-7.

“We feel great,” Jays starter Chris Bassitt said about the opening stretch. “We’ve had a pretty tough schedule, and I don’t think it gets much lighter. Boston is a good team, Pittsburgh is a good team. We haven’t had an easy team, so to speak. Where we are, how we’ve bonded, how we fight with each other, how hard we work, I think a lot of great things are to come for the future.”

In terms of opponents, May figures to be a much more difficult. The Jays have 12 games against the AL East, plus additional matchups featuring the defending NL champion Philadelphia Phillies, NL-East leading Atlanta Braves and second-place New York Mets.

Further complicating matters, the Jays have played 13 home games, tied with the Cleveland Guardians for the fewest in the AL. It’s not getting better any time soon, either, with just 12 home games slated for May vs. 16 on the road.

“Pitching, bullpen, good approach, good defence, aggressive on the bases,” Schneider said while pointing out the strengths his team displayed through the opening month.

“You look back and you really like the (5-1) homestand, you like winning two out of three against (Seattle). You win series and you keep moving on. On to Boston and hopefully do more of the same.”

The more balanced schedule increases the likelihood of the AL East securing the most wild cards. Last year, two wild cards came from the division. This year, there’s a chance it could have all three with the only real threats coming from the West.

The season is barely a month old, but it already might be time to adjust the number of victories required to take top spot. The win totals of every AL East team are going to be inflated thanks in large part to the diminished quality of opponents.

While the Rays aren’t going to keep playing this well forever, they also might not cool off quite as much as they would have under the old format. The Yankees finished with 99 victories last season to win the division by seven games. Even if that’s enough to get the job done again, the gap between first and second almost certainly won’t be as large.

These are the new realities of the AL East. The rest of the competition isn’t as good as it used to be, which means it should be easier to make the playoffs, but winning the division will be as difficult as ever. Considering their hot start, the Jays seem well positioned to meet the challenge, yet they’ll have to keep their foot on the gas all year to have a shot at a division title and the corresponding first-round bye.

SHARE: