Opinion | Short-handed Jays rotation is close to the breaking point. They’ll need help in the second half

The surprising regression of Alek Manoah had the potential to throw the season into disarray, but an assist from Major League Baseball has provided the Blue Jays with a break when they needed it most.

When Manoah was optioned to the minors in early June, it exposed a lack of depth in starting pitching within the organization. The Jays didn’t have any reliable candidates in the minors ready to step up and fill in for the guy who a year ago finished in the top three in voting for the American League Cy Young Award.

Under normal circumstances, that would have presented major problems for a team that views itself as a contender. Every five days, the Jays figured to be in an unenviable position that would result in uncompetitive starts and too much work for the bullpen.

That has yet to happen, thanks in large part to four off-days spread out over a month. Since the beginning of June, the Jays have required just two “starts” from that spot in the rotation, and only two more are tentatively scheduled before the all-star break from July 10 to 13.

The situation isn’t ideal, but it could have been a whole lot worse.

“You look at the off-day (Thursday), you look at Trevor (Richards) in the eighth inning at Miami, you can kind of line things up accordingly,” Jays manager John Schneider said prior to a 5-4 loss to the Oakland A’s on Friday night. “We’re at the point in the schedule where you can rely on some off-days and deploy accordingly.”

The Jays might be able to survive Manoah’s absence for a few more weeks because of the schedule, but that doesn’t mean the current situation is problem free. If everyone had been healthy and performing, this would have been the perfect stretch to give the starters extra rest and make sure they have plenty left in the tank for the end of the year.

That’s not possible with four regulars required to pitch every five days, while the club mixes in Richards as an opener whenever there isn’t an off-day. If that trend persists, it will lead to extra work and potential performance issues down the road.

In six starts this season on five days’ rest, Jays ace Kevin Gausman is 2-0 with a 1.08 ERA. In nine outings on regular four days’ rest, Gausman is 5-2 with a 5.12 ERA. Across his career, Gausman has a 3.14 ERA when he gets an extra day, 4.17 when he doesn’t.

Even if those numbers normalize, the additional innings now could lead to increased fatigue later in the season, which has been a problem in the past. In 2021, Gausman posted a 1.73 ERA in the first half and a 4.42 ERA in the second half. Last year the results were similar, with a 2.87 ERA in the first half and a 3.90 ERA in the second.

Gausman isn’t the only guy who might be negatively affected by the current strategy. José Berríos has a 3.66 ERA in eight starts on four days’ rest this season, and that number drops to 2.03 in five outings when given an extra day. Chris Bassitt, who allowed four runs in five innings Friday, has performed better on normal rest this season, but across a nine-year career his ERA on four days’ rest is 3.93 vs. 3.43 on five.

These pitchers are sacrificing some of their individual statistics to help the team. Considering the lack of viable starters in Triple-A Buffalo, they didn’t really have a choice.

“It was a conversation, obviously, taking a look at how many starts are going to be had before the all-star break,” Gausman said recently about the rotation. “Right now, we only have four guys. So yeah, we need all four of our guys to make as many starts as we can before the all-star break. It wasn’t really much more than that.”

The Jays might be able to operate this way until mid-July, but only having four starters isn’t going to work long term. The good news for the Jays is that help should be on the way shortly after the break via the return of Manoah and Hyun-Jin Ryu, or with replacements acquired at the Aug. 1 trade deadline.

Manoah hasn’t pitched an official game since he allowed six runs against the Houston Astros on June 5. He has been working out at the club’s minor-league complex in Dunedin, where he recently tossed five innings in a simulated game. He is expected to throw a bullpen this weekend followed by another simulated outing before potentially pitching in a minor-league game.

Earlier this month, Ryu began the slow process of getting stretched out as he continues to recover from last year’s Tommy John surgery. He tossed one inning in his last outing and is scheduled for another side session before likely being assigned to pitch two innings in his next appearance.

Manoah and Ryu might factor in after the all-star break. That means the Jays likely only require a couple more appearances from Richards as an opener before he can return to a full-time bullpen role. Unless, of course, someone else gets hurt.

“I don’t think there’s a set date,” Schneider said when asked if Manoah could be ready in early July for one of the two projected bullpen games. “It’s not like we’re targeting that because it’s the next go-around in the rotation. It will depend on how he’s doing. We told him from the get-go: we’ll know when you’re ready, you’ll tell us when you’re ready. So it’s not like anyone has circled a date on the calendar.”

A four-man rotation won’t be sustainable for much longer. The Jays will eventually need some additional help. For now, though, it has allowed them to keep pace in the AL wild-card standings and without their opening-day starter around to help, that’s about as good as they could have hoped for.

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