Opinion | Picking winners is as easy picking goalies in the Stanley Cup playoffs
I went a remarkable 12-3 last year in my NHL Stanley Cup playoff predictions. The team that tripped me up? Montreal.
Simply didn’t believe in them for two rounds. I chose Toronto’s and Winnipeg’s goal-scoring ability over Carey Price.
Finally picked them in the third round, and got it right. Then of course it was easy to pick Tampa in the final. But yes, 12-3 for the 15 series. I dined out on that for a while.
The weird thing is I ignored my own rule of thumb: If in doubt, take the best goalie. I know, I know, it’s the voodoo position of hockey. Still. Wudda, cudda, shudda with Carey Price.
And the NHL stats department kinda sorta backs me up:
- Six of the last 10 Stanley Cup champions had one goaltender start every game of their postseason run, including each of the last three. Additionally, Jonathan Quick in 2012, Corey Crawford in 2013 and Andrei Vasilevskiy in 2020 and 2021 were never pulled after a start and played every minute in goal.
- However, there was a four-year run (2015 to 2018) when the Stanley Cup winner had multiple goaltenders make two or more starts during the postseason run, including three instances where the goaltender who started Game 1 of the opening round was different from the goaltender who earned the Cup-clinching victory. (Jeff Zatkoff ceded to Matt Murray in 2016, Marc-Andre Fleury ceded to Murray in 2017, and Philip Grubauer ceded to Braden Holtby in 2018).
If you have a question, email me at [email protected] and I’ll answer it in the next Mailbag.
Can’t say I’m much of a bettor. Two bucks on the ponies now and then. And fantasy sports keeps me going. (It’s cut-throat, by the way, to be in fantasy hockey pools with hockey media types. Damn that Eric Duhatschek.)
I have a Blue Jays game riding on whether Calgary will go further than Minnesota. I can’t even remember why I got into an argument about those two teams. I have a soft spot for the Flames. And the bet predates Marc-Andre Fleury and the trade deadline, so, dunno. I may be buying.
But betting is everywhere these days. Just look at the signage inside any rink.
You might be betting. Please don’t take it seriously. But here are my bold predictions.
Tampa-Toronto: Taking Andrei Vasilevskiy in seven. I’ve taken Toronto to win in the first round for five straight years. Enough.
Boston-Carolina: Take the Hurricanes. Let’s say six. Frederik Andersen gets his playoff redemption, the Hurricanes depth outmatches the Bruins, and Boston starts to show its age.
Pittsburgh-NY Rangers: Rangers in six. Igor Shesterkin and a bunch of guys who don’t know how they got there. I’ll go further and say Alexis Lafreniere becomes a star, too. Penguins about ready to age-out as well.
Washington-Florida: Panthers in six. Even Sergei Bobrovsky can’t blow this. The NHL’s best offence takes on the 13th best defence. That said, both teams allow 2.95 goals a game. A series where you might want to consider the over in any given game. If you’re not familiar with Aleksander Barkov, now’s a good time to get to know him.
St. Louis-Minnesota: Much as it pains me to say because of that other bet, take the Wild in seven. Again, goalies. Unless you have faith in Ville Husso.
Nashville-Colorado: The Avalanche in five. There is simply so much in that lineup – at least until Nazem Kadri gets suspended — and not enough in the Predators lineup. Nathan MacKinnon is due.
Dallas-Calgary: Flames in five. I believe not only in Jacob Markstrom, but in Darryl Sutter. I like they kept last year’s underachieving team together. Lots of firepower. Dallas got into the playoffs on fumes.
L.A.-Edmonton: Oilers in six. Another series that goaltending forgot. The Kings are happy to be there. The now-robust Oilers will be happy to beat them up.
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