Opinion | Lost gates hurt the Maple Leafs the most. And another flat-cap season would compound the damage

With each passing game on their road trip across the western United States, the Toronto Maple Leafs’ players are being reminded of the energy and atmosphere no longer awaiting them at home.

With each passing day where significant fan restrictions remain in place for Canadian-based arenas, the business of NHL hockey grows slightly less robust.

It is the Leafs, arguably, who stand to be hurt most by this latest wave of challenges in another COVID-disrupted NHL season. They’ve already hosted two games this month without fans at Scotiabank Arena, foregoing a gate estimated at $3.5 million per night, and will likely play others at less than full capacity pending the look of the still-to-be-finalized February portion of the schedule.

Equally as significant as those dollars is how the lost revenue in Toronto and elsewhere stands to impact the overall NHL outlook for next year.

There is growing concern among front offices that it will result in a flat salary cap ceiling of $81.5 million (U.S.) for a fourth straight season — which would be another small blow for a Leafs team that strategically locked up its top four forwards for big money on long-term deals with the idea that they’d eat up less of the cap with each flip of the calendar.

No one was factoring in a “one in 100 years” pandemic as part of the projections made alongside those contracts.

Remember that back before the world went upside down — not even two full years ago — the NHL was looking at a considerably more rosy financial picture. During a general managers meeting held a week before the original COVID-19 pause in March 2020, commissioner Gary Bettman projected a cap ceiling between $84 million and $88.2 million for the 2020-21 season.

In an alternate universe, that means teams such as the Leafs would have north of $90 million to spend on payroll by now. Maybe Zach Hyman wouldn’t have been allowed to walk away in free agency last summer had the extra room been available to general manager Kyle Dubas at that time.

Bettman told team owners last month to expect a slight bump in next season’s cap to $82.5 million, but that was before Omicron ripped through the continent and attendance restrictions returned in the seven Canadian markets.

The league has since been busy rescheduling games, including more than two dozen that were to be played in Canada. There’s no clear indication how long it will be before the provinces allow crowds to return to 100 per cent capacity, and earlier this week deputy NHL commissioner Bill Daly told the Star that the league wasn’t yet in position to project if next year’s cap might end up being flat as a result of the revenue hit.

That wouldn’t be a desirable outcome for anyone.

The difference between a $1-million cap bump or not in 2022-23 would be worth $512 million in total player compensation over the next four seasons. And a flat cap would likely see the middle class either squeezed or replaced by younger, cheaper players.

That’s the group Dubas needs to continue plucking above-replacement-level talent from.

He did an excellent job last summer by signing David Kämpf, Ondrej Kaše and Michael Bunting with the cap space created by Hyman’s departure. They’ve each made a measurable contribution on low-cost deals for a team hovering near the top of the NHL standings.

However, it’s a feat he’ll have to repeat again and again if the cap remains flat. This new environment has completely eliminated the inflationary aspect of the system which once helped teams make room for further long-term commitments or big spends in free agency.

Dubas won’t be afforded that luxury.

He’ll need to get creative to find a way to extend No. 1 goaltender Jack Campbell for next season while also accounting for the $2.5-million raise already given to Morgan Rielly. Ilya Mikheyev will be an unrestricted free agent, while Kaše, Rasmus Sandin and Timothy Liljegren are all pending restricted free agents.

A rising cap would lift all boats, as would a season of normal revenues.

The Leafs negotiated hard with William Nylander on his second NHL contract — it’s fantastic value today — but they took a softer approach with Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner. There were people in other organizations who felt they could have used the weight of the collective agreement more aggressively during the Marner negotiations, in particular, because of his limited rights and big ask.

But the Leafs decided at the time to bet big on the talent and let a rising cap make up any small difference left on the bargaining table.

“We’re trying to build a team that can have sustained success, not just contend once,” Dubas explained in February 2019. “I think you look, there’s (many) teams all across every professional sport, they’re very good teams for a long time but they can’t ever push it across the finish line.

“I think a lot of that is luck related and luck based, and I think we want to give ourselves the maximum number of chances we can to make a real good go at it.”

As strong as the Leafs front office has been at finding creative solutions around the margins, it has been anything but lucky since locking in the core.

Chris Johnston is a Toronto-based journalist with a new gaming company. His work will be seen on the website and app for the new gaming company, and also in the Toronto Star. Follow him on Twitter: @reporterchris