Opinion | Blue Jays’ pitching fortunes could hinge on Jose Berrios

Which version of José Berríos will the Blue Jays get this season?

The front-line starter who was acquired at the 2021 trade deadline, or last season’s flop that surrendered more hits and earned runs than any pitcher in the league?

The answer could very well determine whether the Jays pitching staff ends up being elite, average, or downright awful. That’s because there’s enough upside for this group to rank among the game’s best and just enough risk that it could crumble under the weight of its own lofty expectations.

Berríos, last year’s opening-day starter, looms large in either scenario. If the rotation thrives it will probably be at least in part because of Berríos’ re-emergence. If the group falters, it’s easy to envision scenarios where he’d be left shouldering much of the blame.

The top three of the rotation is set. Alek Manoah will make the first opening day start of his career on Thursday in St. Louis after finishing third in voting for last year’s AL Cy Young Award. Kevin Gausman, one of the game’s top starters since the start of 2020, will get Game 2. The series finale against the Cardinals will go to reliable veteran Chris Bassitt and his 3.29 ERA over the last six years.

It was only a year ago that Berríos belonged in the same tier. After five consecutive seasons with a 4.00 ERA or below, the Jays made him their ace and rewarded Berríos with a $131 million (U.S.) contract. He responded by not being able to get out of the first inning in his opening day start and later finishing the year with a 5.23 ERA, highest in the majors among qualified starters.

At the start of the year, the Jays were projected to have one of the league’s top rotations. Berríos’s regression, a season-ending injury to Hyun-Jin Ryu and the ineffectiveness of Yusei Kikuchi instead led to a 3.98 ERA for the team’s starters, which ranked 18th in the majors.

“Last year was tough, but the biggest thing about him was that he was as accountable as anybody I’ve ever seen,” Jays manager John Schneider said of Berríos earlier this spring. “To us, which he didn’t need to do, and to his teammates, which he didn’t need to do.

“He competes with the best of them. He probably felt like he wasn’t pulling his weight, which isn’t really the case either because he had some great outings. But the way he handled it was like everything he does, a total pro.”

Berríos attempted to move beyond last season’s disappointment by making a series of mechanical adjustments this spring. The goal was to improve fastball command and limit the pitches he throws into hittable parts of the zone. There wasn’t any noticeable difference during the World Baseball Classic, but five innings of one-run ball in a late spring start against the Orioles offered a sign of hope.

Kikuchi is another Jays starter who is looking to get over last year’s embarrassment. Like Berríos, he made a series of mechanical adjustments this spring and achieved even better results. Good doesn’t begin to describe how Kikuchi looked in the spring by striking out 25 batters over 18 innings, he was flat-out dominant. Still, those games didn’t mean a thing and last year’s 5.19 ERA combined with a sketchy track record are valid reasons to be skeptical about a career turnaround.

The Jays overcame a couple weak spots in last year’s rotation to make the playoffs, but the continued struggles from Berríos and Kikuchi cost them the division and an easier path through October. To avoid similar missteps in 2023, at least one of these two will have to step up, otherwise the bullpen will be out of gas by June. If either Manoah, Gausman or Bassitt goes down with an injury, the Jays will end up needing both.

The New York Yankees were once projected to have the league’s best rotation, but they’ve since lost Carlos Rodón, Luis Severino and Frankie Montas to injuries. Strong showings from Berríos or Kikuchi could push the Jays into the top spot, otherwise a lack of depth will put them behind teams like the Astros and Rays.

Depth isn’t an issue in the bullpen, where the Jays have a slew of options. Jordan Romano and Yimi Garcia will return to the top two roles and there are more viable options backing them up than at this point last year. The arrival of Erik Swanson will help, as should a full year from Anthony Bass.

Add in lefty Tim Mayza along with the workaholic Adam Cimber and the Jays have the makings of a strong unit. Just as crucial, there appears to be a competent group in the minors who will be pushing for their own opportunities. Zach Pop was ready to step in for the injured Mitch White at the end of camp and others like Nate Pearson or maybe even prospect Yosver Zulueta are available to backfill as well.

This is a perfectly competent group to get through the regular season, but the playoffs are another story. Unless Pearson has a breakout year, another impact arm that misses bats is still required so that Swanson and Bass can stick to their strengths in lower-leverage spots. Sure that’s nitpicky, but it has to be that way with contending teams.

In their quest to reach the World Series, the Jays sacrificed offence this winter to improve their pitching and defence. That means while last year’s 3.87 team ERA, which ranked 15th in the majors, was enough to get into the post-season, it will have to be better for a similar script to be written in 2023.

A bounceback is the Jays’ best shot at making it happen.

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