Opinion | Blue Jays need to be pitch perfect with bullpen moves if they want to reach the post-season

One of the questions the Blue Jays had to ask themselves at the start of the off-season was what moves should be made to upgrade the bullpen. So far, the answer has been: Not much.

While general manager Ross Atkins made a pair of significant investments in his starting rotation by signing José Berríos and Kevin Gausman to long-term deals prior to the Dec. 2 lockout, the other part of the pitching staff has been left mostly untouched.

To date, the Jays have been resisting the urge to spend a lot of money on a veteran closer. They took a pass on Raisel Iglesias, who re-signed with the Angels for $58 million (U.S.). They watched Mark Melancon join Arizona and they still figure to be an unlikely landing spot for Kenley Jansen.

Through the first month of the off-season, their only move was signing Yimi Garcia to a two-year contract worth $11 million. Garcia has closing experience, including 15 saves last season with the Miami Marlins, but if things go well with the Jays he is expected to slot alongside Adam Cimber, Trevor Richards and Tim Mayza in a setup role as opposed to threatening Jordan Romano for ninth-inning duties.

Garcia’s signing in late November went largely unnoticed, with the Jays agreeing to terms with Gausman one day later, but he is the kind of addition that should have been expected. With bigger priorities elsewhere, the Jays seem content with minor tinkering in relief instead of major renovations. After all, every dollar saved here can be used on another part of the roster.

“The great thing about Jordan is that he always tells us, ‘I just want to win,’ ” Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins said earlier in the off-season when asked about the possibility of Romano switching roles. “We have consistently talked to him about the potential impact, the potential role, and his consistent response is, ‘I want to be part of a winning team, and whatever makes us better I’m all in.’ Which is remarkable, it’s authentic.”

Adding a closer and bumping Romano into a setup role would be one obvious way to upgrade the Toronto bullpen, but this is a team that believes a lot of its early-season problems in 2021 have already been resolved. Moves for Cimber and Richards last summer alleviated concerns and, when those two were paired with Mayza and Romano, it gave the Jays a strong back four.

Prior to their arrival, the bullpen was a mess. Rafael Dolis failed to discover his 2020 form and the erratic Tyler Chatwood proved to be a bust of epic proportions. Injuries to Julian Merryweather, David Phelps and Ryan Borucki didn’t help.

Barring a big move, the Jays’ big four will return in their same roles next season. They’ll be joined by Garcia and — assuming he doesn’t land a spot in the rotation — swingman Ross Stripling. That leaves two spots up for grabs between a group that includes Phelps, Borucki, Merryweather, Nate Pearson and a few other candidates from the minors.

It also means the Jays potentially have enough flexibility to add one more reliever. A lot of the top options are already off the board, but some intriguing low-risk options include Archie Bradley, Trevor Rosenthal, Adam Ottavino, Andrew Chafin and Ian Kennedy. They are solid pitchers who would help the Jays survive the war of attrition throughout a 162-game season, but not impact pieces.

“Swing and miss is always nice late in the game,” Atkins said prior to signing Garcia. “To complement Cimber and Richards, another arm that could get a strikeout late in the game would be a nice piece to have, and hopefully we have a couple of those.”

Targeting midtier relievers, instead of the upper class, makes sense. The Jays still need to find replacements for second baseman Marcus Semien and starter Steven Matz. A left-handed bat to complement a right-handed heavy outfield would be nice, too. It’s going to take money to fill each of those spots and by avoiding large expenditures in a volatile relief market there will be more of it available.

What the Jays shouldn’t be trying to do is replicate its patient approach from 2021. This year will be post-season or bust. That means the Jays will have to be prepared to overpay through trade if the current strategy doesn’t work out. Deals before June are rare because asking prices are high with the trade deadline months away, but they happen when one side antes up. While the Jays typically avoid those premium prices, they won’t have that luxury this year.

The Jays’ bullpen in the second half of last season wasn’t sexy, but it was effective. Romano didn’t blow a save all year. Cimber keeps the ball in the park and seems to have a rubber arm. Richards is prone to giving up homers, yet he also misses a lot of bats. Mayza proved last year he is a late-inning weapon.

The success of the bullpen this year will be dependent not only on those four, but the guys who come after. A lot could go right with this group, a lot could go wrong, too. That’s usually how it works in relief. Bullpens are volatile, with relievers notoriously difficult to predict from one year to the next. Considering the risk, keeping the stakes low is a logical approach so the larger bets can be saved for other areas.