Opinion | Blue Jays five-star reviews — and second-half previews

There are some legitimate questions surrounding the Blue Jays’ lack of depth, but there’s very little doubt they have enough high-end talent to hang with Major League Baseball’s top teams.

Despite a sluggish first half that created a seven-game deficit in the American League East standings, the Jays were well represented during this week’s all-star festivities in Seattle with five selections, tied for third-most in the majors. Only the Atlanta Braves (eight) and Texas Rangers (six) had more.

Five all-stars also tied the second-most in franchise history, joining the 2016 and 2006 teams. The only time the Jays had more was when they sent seven to the All-Star Game in 1993 before going on to win a World Series title, their second in as many years.

Here’s a closer look at this year’s representatives and the road they took to Seattle:

First-half analysis: He was without a doubt the Jays’ most valuable position player. On offence, he leads the team in FanGraphs wins above replacement with three, and nobody in the AL has more hits than his 122. He’s hitting a career-best .317 in 90 games, and across a full season the 25-year-old has never had a higher on-base or slugging percentage than he does now.

Second-half forecast: Bichette has been projected as a future batting champion since the day he arrived in the majors, and this might be the year he finally does it. He won’t likely catch Luis Arráez of the Miami Marlins, who has been flirting with .400 for most of the year in the National League, but he is within striking distance of Tampa Bay’s Yandy Díaz (.323) for top spot in the AL. Bichette set a Jays record for hits before the all-star break with 122. Vernon Wells’s season mark of 215, from 2003, could be in jeopardy.

All-Star Game: Bichette entered as a defensive replacement for Corey Seager in the top of the fourth. He flew out in his first at-bat, then hit a sacrifice fly to give the AL a 2-1 lead in the sixth.

First-half analysis: He might be an all-star, but he has been performing well below expectations for most of the year. His .344 on-base mark is the lowest since 2020, and a .443 slugging percentage is his worst since 2019. One of the big issues has been a lack of plate discipline with Guerrero chasing a career-high 30.7 per cent of pitches outside the zone, compared to 24.5 when he was the AL MVP runner-up in 2021. Another issue has been a ground-ball percentage of 47.2 vs. 44.8 in 2021.

Second-half forecast: There were a few signs before the break that Guerrero might be starting to turn things around. In his last 15 games, he hit four homers and four doubles while batting .271 with an .881 on-base plus slugging percentage. The Jays need Guerrero to break out in the second half if they intend to do some damage down the stretch.

All-Star Game: Guerrero entered in the sixth and promptly made a throwing error before grounding out to third later in the same frame. The home run derby champ stepped to the plate again in the bottom of the ninth against Phillies closer Craig Kimbrel and had a chance to tie the game with one swing, but struck out on three pitches and the NL went on to secure a 3-2 win.

First-half analysis: He has been a pleasant surprise for the Jays this season. But much like Santiago Espinal in 2022, his spot on the all-star team speaks to a league-wide lack of depth at second base more than his own skills. A .734 on-base plus slugging mark is respectable but nothing to get overly excited about, and yet Merrifield has been a key glue guy for the Jays because of his ability to move around the field, hit for a decent average and steal bases.

Second-half forecast: The Jays would be thrilled if Merrifield maintains his current pace. In 95 games with the Royals last season, he slashed just .240/.290/.352. But in the ensuing 126 games with the Jays, those numbers jumped to .284/.337/.408. More of the same would suit his teammates just fine.

All-Star Game: Merrifield replaced Marcus Semien at second in the sixth and flew out to right in that inning, then hit a leadoff single in the eighth.

First-half analysis: It goes to show how spoiled Jays fans have been over the last few years in the ninth inning, because a lot of people seem to believe Romano’s having a down season and yet the numbers indicate otherwise. A 2.87 ERA is his highest since 2019, but he managed to convert all but three of 29 save chances. The biggest issue has been four losses in non-save situations where he has a 4.50 ERA across eight innings.

Second-half forecast: Romano surrendered four home runs in the first half, which matches his total from all last season. He also has been giving up a lot of deep fly balls that stayed just inside the park, so that trend will be worth monitoring as fatigue potentially sets in down the stretch.

All-Star Game: Romano entered in the seventh, but didn’t last long. He retired Will Smith, then surrendered a deep shot to left off the bat of former teammate Lourdes Gurriel Jr. It was initially called a home run before being ruled foul upon review. More concerning for the Jays is that Romano left mid-at-bat with back tightness.

First-half analysis: The only critique is that the Jays didn’t score nearly enough runs for him. Among qualified starters, only Kansas City’s Zack Greinke has received less run support than the 3.03 per nine innings the Jays are averaging in Gausman’s outings. He lost his season opener despite not having allowed an earned run. In May, the Jays lost three consecutive outings even though Gausman allowed just four runs across 22 innings. It was more of the same in June and early July.

Second-half forecast: Gausman leads the AL with 153 strikeouts and his 11.9 strikeouts per nine inning are a franchise high. Even so, it’s difficult to imagine him making a run at the Jays single-season record for strikeouts, set by Roger Clemens with 292 in 1997. Fatigue has been an issue for Gausman in each of the last two seasons, with an ERA more than a run higher during the second half compared to the first.

All-Star Game: After starting against the Detroit Tigers on Saturday, he wasn’t eligible to pitch in Seattle and skipped the trip to spend time with his family.

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