Entering the final week of the NFL season, there are still playoff spots and seeding scenarios to sort out in both conferences. But there are also a half-dozen win totals hanging in the balance, too.
Six teams still have a chance to cash over or under on their preseason totals, many of which seemed like a virtual lock to go one way or the other just a few weeks ago. Now, after 17 weeks of waiting, it all rests on the results Sunday.
Here are the six teams whose win totals are yet to be decided, along with each team’s record, preseason total and our prediction on which side will ultimately cash:
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Baltimore Ravens (10-6, 10.5 wins)
It’s hard to believe that this win total is still in doubt after the way the Ravens started the year — becoming only the third team in NFL history to boast a double-digit lead in each of its first 10 games without ever trailing by double digits.
Somehow, Baltimore won just seven of those games, and it’s a long shot to beat the Bengals (-9) on Sunday with quarterback Lamar Jackson out again with a knee injury. Don’t count on this one cashing with Tyler Huntley under center.
Prediction: Under 10.5
Los Angeles Chargers (10-6, 10.5 wins)
Will the Chargers play their starters in Week 18? That will go a long way toward determining which way their preseason total will end up.
Under bettors were in a great spot when this team was .500 late in the year, but a 5-1 run entering the game Sunday against the Broncos (-3.5) has given new life to over bettors. Ultimately, we think the Chargers will pull this one out against a struggling Denver squad even if the regulars don’t get a full workload.
Prediction: Over 10.5
Miami Dolphins (8-8, 8.5 wins)
Our sincerest sympathies go out to anyone who bet the Over for the Dolphins’ preseason total, which looked like an absolute lock after a sizzling 8-3 start.
They’ve lost five straight since then, and they’ll be without starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (concussion) for the all-important finale against the Jets (+3.5). With third-stringer Skylar Thompson set to start against the team that flustered him earlier this year, we don’t love Miami’s outlook.
Prediction: Under 8.5
New England Patriots (8-8, 8.5 wins)
The Patriots have rallied late in the season to give themselves a chance of cashing the Over here — and an outside shot at securing the final AFC wild-card spot, too.
Both depend on New England beating the rival Bills on Sunday, which feels like something worth betting against. Buffalo still needs to win this weekend to secure better playoff seeding, which leaves the Patriots as a mere speed bump in their way.
Prediction: Under 8.5
Washington Commanders (7-8-1, 7.5)
The Commanders’ season can be split into three distinct chapters: the Carson Wentz era, the Taylor Heinicke era and whatever the last few weeks have been.
This group started 2-4 under Wentz before ripping off a 5-1-1 run under Heinicke heading into the bye week. They then fell apart amid a three-game losing streak, and I don’t have high hopes for rookie Sam Howell — who’s set to make his first-ever start on Sunday — to shock a Cowboys team that still has something to play for.
Prediction: Under 7.5
Carolina Panthers (6-10, 6.5 wins)
We’re going out on a limb here on the Panthers, who have won three of their last five games despite being underdogs in four of them and all three of their outright victories.
They’ll need to beat the Saints on Sunday to complete the late-season comeback for preseason over bettors, and while oddsmakers don’t love their chances of doing so, I’d expect interim coach Steve Wilks to have his team ready for one final statement win to close out the year.
Prediction: Over 6.5
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