NFL Championship weekend predictions: Take Chiefs, 49ers

Championship weekend is here, not only for the four teams that will be on the field Sunday but also for your favorite Bettor’s Guide prognosticator, who is attempting to add a playoff banner to the 2021 regular-season championship.

Thus far in the playoffs, this space has had good but not great success predicting these final four squads. The ATS record is 2-0 in 49ers games, 2-0 in Rams games, 1-1 in Bengals games and 0-2 in Chiefs games. We’ll start with that last one, as I try to decide whether I want to let Patrick Mahomes hit me in the head with a hammer for the third week in a row.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-7.5) over Cincinnati Bengals; Under 54.5

To elaborate on 0-2 spread mark in these playoffs in Chiefs games, the divisional-round pick of the Steelers +12.5 was stupid. There was no realistic scenario suggesting Pittsburgh could stay close after losing 36-10 in Kansas City just three weeks earlier.

I’m still smarting from last week’s loss with Buffalo (as the Lock of the Week, no less) at Arrowhead. I continue to believe I had the right side there. If somehow the Bills would have been granted an instant rematch, I’d pick them again over the Chiefs. Josh Allen’s fourth touchdown hookup with Gabriel Davis with 13 seconds to go should have been enough, right?!

But it wasn’t … because of Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. Those three names are the reason most teams don’t have enough to beat the Chiefs.

The question here isn’t whether Joe Burrow and the young Bengals are going to be able to vanquish the Chiefs and continue on their own magic-carpet ride to Super Bowl LVI. They’re most likely not, and BetMGM is offering +275 on the moneyline if you think I’m wrong about that. Rather, we’re talking about the spread, and that’s a more challenging question.

In last week’s column, I figured Burrow would have a rough time in his first road playoff game, and that turned out to be the case. The Titans sacked him nine — nine! — times. They intercepted him once and did not allow a touchdown pass. The Bengals couldn’t stop Titans WR A.J. Brown, who had five catches for 142 yards and a touchdown.

So why are the Bengals playing Sunday? You can thank Ryan Tannehill and his three horrendously timed interceptions — first play of the game, first drive of the second half and last drive of the fourth quarter ahead of Evan McPherson’s deciding field goal.

Is this formula for victory — or even staying close — replicable for the Bengals on Sunday? I’d say no. The crowd noise will be even louder than Burrow heard in Tennessee. The Chiefs may not get nine sacks, but they have plenty of guys who can invade the pocket — including Chris Jones, Frank Clark and Melvin Ingram. You can break a calculator trying to figure out how many yards Hill, Kelce, Mecole Hardman and Byron Pringle can rack up against the Cincinnati secondary.

And the Bengals can’t count on getting bailed out by three interceptions this week, not when Mahomes has thrown just one pick compared to 23 touchdown passes at Arrowhead in his playoff career.

I’m aware of these two facts: 1. The Bengals beat the Chiefs, 34-31, in Cincinnati on Jan. 2 to help deny Kansas City the first-round bye. That’s a meaningful result. 2. The Chiefs often fail to cover when they win.

My response is that this game is at different time, in a different place, with stakes that are much higher. And yes, the Chiefs for a few seasons have had the straight-up win/spread loss pattern, including four times in 2021, but they did have a string of six straight win/covers late in the season. And they covered the spread in the AFC Championship each of the past two seasons — beating the Bills, 38-24, as three-point favorites last year and the Titans, 35-24, as 7.5-point favorites the year before.

So I’m putting my trust in Mahomes and defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo to bring this one home over the number and under the total.

Chiefs, 34-17.

San Francisco 49ers (+3.5) over LOS ANGELES RAMS; Under 45.5

One of my favorite handicapping angles is to try to avoid teams playing in their third consecutive road game. It’s something that makes sense, even though I don’t think I’ve ever seen the trend showing the ATS results for such situations.

Here, we have the 49ers playing a fourth road game in a row. They beat the Rams, 27-24 (coming back from an early 17-0 deficit), at SoFi Stadium on Jan. 9 as three-point underdogs. Then they refueled the NFL meme machine with a 23-17 win at Dallas at +3 in the wild-card round, before knocking off Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, 13-10, in the (redundant) frozen tundra at +5.5 in the divisional round.

The question of wear-and-tear is a real one for the 49ers — as there are injury concerns about QB Jimmy Garoppolo (thumb, shoulder), OT Trent Brown (ankle), RB Elijah Mitchell (knee) and others.

But there are two things that might mitigate here, and it’s that last week, the Rams had to make the cross-country trip to and from Tampa. And the 49ers have the benefit of a little extra rest, having played Saturday night and the Rams on Sunday afternoon.

Looking at the line, home field is generally deemed to be between 2 and 2.5 points in the NFL these days, down from the long-accepted 3. The Rams are laying an additional 1-1.5 points here based on their perceived edge in the power ratings. If you disagree with that calculation, then there’s your value in betting the underdog.

Both teams come in hot, as teams normally do in the championship round. The 49ers are 9-2 SU and ATS in their last 11 games and the Rams 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in their last eight.

Probably the biggest clues come from the recent series history. The 49ers have won the past six meetings over three seasons, encompassing both the Jared Goff and Matthew Stafford eras. Kyle Shanahan always seems to be a step ahead of Sean McVay. McVay is an excellent coach, and some day he’ll figure out how to turn the tide. If that day is Sunday, 49ers backers would still have a bit of a buffer thanks to the spread. Also, if this game comes down to a kick, San Francisco’s Robbie Gould has never missed one in postseason (20-for-20 field goals, 32-for-32 PATs).

49ers, 23-21.

Last week: 5-3 (sides 2-2, Over/Unders 3-1)
Lock of the week: Chiefs (Locks 11-8 in 2021-22).