We’ve come to the end of the road with our NFL previews as we have just the NFC West that remains to finish up our division win totals. The timing couldn’t be any better, as, by next weekend, every NFL team would’ve already kicked off their training camps.
We’ll examine each team’s upcoming schedule and address the key personnel changes during the offseason.
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NFC West Win Totals
Provided by BetMGM
| NFC West Team | Over | Under |
| Seattle Seahawks | 5.5 / -140 | 5.5 / +115 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 8.5 / -115 | 8.5 / -105 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 9.5 / -140 | 9.5 / +115 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 10.5 / -105 | 10.5 / -115 |
At +120, Los Angeles is the favorite to repeat as division champions. San Francisco has the second shortest odds at +200. Arizona is priced at +300 while Seattle is the longshot on the board at +1600.
The final thing to note is the scheduling composition for the NFC West, as each team will face the following:
- Six games against divisional opponents.
- Four intraconference games against the NFC South.
- Four interconference games against the AFC West.
- One game against an AFC East team with a similar win-loss record from the previous season.
Seattle Seahawks Under 5.5 Wins (+115)
The Seattle Seahawks are coming off a seven-win season, and now they’ll have to navigate this campaign without their Super Bowl-winning quarterback Russell Wilson (73.9 PFF grade).
Seattle traded Wilson, and a fourth-round pick to Denver in exchange for quarterback Drew Lock (60.0 PFF grade), tight end Noah Fant (61.6 PFF grade), defensive lineman Shelby Harris (61.3 PFF grade), two first-round picks, two second-round picks, and a fifth-round pick.
Wilson wasn’t the only key player to depart as the Seahawks released linebacker Bobby Wagner (71.8 PFF grade) after ten years with the team.
Seattle’s other free agent moves included acquiring cornerbacks Artie Burns (79.5 PFF grade) and Justin Coleman (52.4 PFF grade), linebacker Uchenna Nwosu (64.3 PFF grade), center Austin Blythe (60.0 PFF grade), and defensive lineman Quinton Jefferson (51.5 PFF grade).
Seattle entered the 2022 NFL Draft with nine picks and selected Mississippi State offensive tackle Charles Cross ninth overall. Then, with back-to-back picks in the second round, Seattle selected Minnesota edge rusher Boye Mafe (40th overall) and Michigan State running back Kenneth Walker III (41st overall).
The Seahawks added another offensive tackle in the third round with Washington State’s Abraham Lucas (72nd overall). Seattle then used its next two picks on cornerbacks with Cincinnati’s Coby Bryant (109th overall) and Texas-San Antonio’s Tariq Woolen (153rd overall).
In the fifth round, Seattle added Ohio State edge rusher Tyreke Smith (158th overall) before adding two seventh-round wide receivers in Bo Melton (229th overall) from Rutgers and Lenoir Rhyne’s Dareke Young (233rd overall).
Despite its trove of picks in the draft, Seattle’s season will largely depend on the production it can get out of the quarterback position. For many years, Wilson could mask the inefficiencies of the Seattle offense, but without him, that task becomes more complicated.
Though the Seahawks’ defense should improve compared to last season, I counted only two games on their schedule where I’d expect them to have the edge at the quarterback position.
And while I think this win total is right around where it should be, my projections have Seattle winning no more than five games.
As a result, I like the value with the under at a plus price of +115.
Arizona Cardinals Over 8.5 Wins (-115)
After winning 11 games last year, bookmakers are projecting the Arizona Cardinals to take a step back, given their win total of 8.5 games. However, with three difficult games to open the season against the Chiefs, Raiders, and Rams, the Cardinals may struggle to avoid an 0-3 start.
Much of the lower expectations involving the Cardinals are due to the looming suspension of Cardinals wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins (79.8 PFF grade). Hopkins is set to miss six games for violating the league’s performance-enhancing drug policy, although he hopes for a reduction.
To help ease matters following the Hopkins suspension, along with the departure of free agent wide receiver with Christian Kirk (72.7 PFF grade), the Cardinals traded for another wide receiver in Marquise Brown (68.6 PFF grade).
The Cardinals added to their offense by signing Darrel Williams (67.2 PFF grade) at running back. On defense, linebackers Ben Niemann (47.1 PFF grade) and Nick Vigil (42.1 PFF grade) should provide additional depth,
If we turn to the NFL draft, the Cardinals didn’t pick until the second round after sending their first-round pick to the Ravens as part of the Brown deal. With the 55th pick, Arizona selected Colorado State tight end Trey McBride.
The Cardinals used their next two picks on edge rushers with San Diego State’s Cameron Thomas (87th overall) and Cincinnati’s Myjai Sanders (100th overall).
Arizona wouldn’t pick again until the sixth round, when they selected USC running back Keontay Ingram (201st overall) and Virginia Tech guard Lecitus Smith (215th overall).
In the seventh round, the Cardinals used their three remaining picks on Valdosta State cornerback Christian Matthew (244th overall), Penn State linebacker Jesse Luketa (256th overall), and Oklahoma guard Marquis Hayes (257th overall).
However, the Cardinals’ most significant offseason move was a five-year extension with quarterback Kyler Murray (84.0 PFF grade). At worst, Murray is the second-best quarterback in the division, so the Cardinals will always have a chance if he’s healthy.
Last season, the Cardinals went 4-2 in the division, which included a two-game sweep against the 49ers. But with Wilson’s departure from Seattle and the 49ers possibly making a quarterback change, I think there are enough winnable games for the Cardinals to go over their win total.
San Francisco 49ers 9.5 Wins (Pass)
In 2021, San Francisco opened with a win total of 10.5 games before sharp money bet the number down to 10. The move to the under proved to be sound as San Francisco finished with exactly ten wins in the campaign.
This season, the 49ers’ win total remains relatively flat at 9.5, and I suspect we’re not seeing much change due to the uncertainty about who their starting quarterback will be.
As a result, I don’t see any reason to delve deeper into the analysis if we cannot don’t definitively say who the signal caller will be.
If Jimmy Garoppolo (74.9 PFF grade) is to remain with the team, I think you have to look to the over. However, the 49ers recently granted Garropolo permission to seek a trade, so it’s entirely possible he could still be on the move.
And with only a limited sample size of second-year quarterback Trey Lance (59.9 PFF grade), this is an easy pass for me.
Betting on the NFL?
Los Angeles Rams Under 10.5 Wins (0.5 units, -115)
After winning the Super Bowl, the Los Angeles Rams will have a target on their back for the entire season.
And while I never quite felt the Rams were the best team in the league at any point last season, I must admit that I am surprised their win total of 10.5 games suggests they could take a step back. After all, the Rams will no longer have to face a Seahawks team with Wilson as their quarterback.
Moreover, the Rams also might not face Garoppolo if he’s traded.
According to our Action Labs database, Garoppolo is a perfect 6-0 straight-up against the Rams during the regular season.
Let’s first begin by evaluating their key departures to better understand their prospects of exceeding their win total.
The Rams lost key players to free agency, such as edge rusher Von Miller (88.7 PFF grade), lineman Sebastian Joseph-Day (61.6 PFF grade), and cornerback Darious Williams (65.3 PFF grade).
On offense, left tackle Andrew Whitworth retired while guard Austin Corbett (68.8 PFF grade) moved on to the Panthers. They’re also without wide receivers Robert Woods (75.7 PFF grade) and Odell Beckham Jr. (67.8 PFF grade).
The Rams traded Woods to the Texans for a sixth-round pick, while Beckham Jr. remains unsigned after tearing his ACL in the second quarter of the Super Bowl.
As for incoming players, the Rams beefed up their offensive line by signing centers Brian Allen (80.0 PFF grade) and Coleman Shelton (57.7 PFF grade).
They also added a tackle in Joseph Noteboom (76.0 PFF grade).
Allen Robinson (66.9 PFF grade) should help to fill the void at wide receiver, but their most significant move might be landing Bobby Wagner (71.8 PFF grade) as a free agent.
Due to their trades for Matthew Stafford and Von Miller, the Rams entered the draft without a first or second-round pick. When it was finally their turn to pick in the third round, they selected Wisconsin guard Logan Bruss (104th overall).
In the fourth round, they added South Carolina State cornerback Decobie Durant (142 overall). They then selected Notre Dame running back Kyren Williams (164th overall) in the fifth round.
The Rams’ next two picks were in the secondary, with UCLA safety Quentin Lake (211th overall) and Georgia cornerback Derion Kendrick (212th overall).
In the seventh round, Los Angeles added Montana State linebacker Daniel Hardy (235th overall), Kansas State safety Russ Yeast (253rd overall), and Michigan State tackle AJ Arcuri (261st overall).
The Rams have a unique approach to the NFL Draft in that they’re not afraid to trade their early-round picks early in the draft in exchange for a player they genuinely covet.
According to Rams beat writer Jourdan Rodrigue, their strategy is not to identify “complete players” but instead “athletes” to complement their superstars.
For example, since moving up to get Jared Goff in 2016, the Rams have traded their first-round picks in each subsequent draft. However, Rodrigue noted that this Rams strategy has failed to reveal an overwhelming edge regarding the success of their late-round picks.
Based on a study by our Action Network predictive analyst Sean Koerner, the Rams will still need to overcome the third most difficult schedule.
Keep in mind that despite winning the NFC West, the Rams went just 3-3 inside the division. I project they’ll continue to have their issues against the 49ers. It’s also possible the 49ers won’t be able to trade Garoppolo with training camp right around the corner.
At the same time, I think bookmakers have overadjusted the Cardinals’ power ratings in response to the Hopkins suspension. As a result, I don’t see many easy games inside the division for the Rams.
And when you factor in a challenging schedule against non-divisional opponents, I think the under is worth a look for a half-unit.
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