National Hurricane Center monitors

The National Hurricane Center began monitoring a large area of disturbed weather in the Atlantic on Sunday. 

The disturbance extends a couple hundreds miles northeast of the Bahamas, according to NHC forecasters. It’s expected to move generally north-northeastward over the southwestern Atlantic at 5 to 10 mph during the next couple of days. 

The disturbance, which began a little more than a week before the start of Atlantic hurricane season, has just a 10% chance of becoming a formation in the next 48 hours, NHC experts said Sunday morning. Hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30. 

In 2022, Agatha became the first hurricane of the season. It formed in late May, shortly before the official start of hurricane season.

The strength of the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season will depend on El Niño, a recurring climate pattern, experts from Colorado State University said in a report released in April. Researchers predicted in the report that there 13 named storms in the Atlantic region, including six hurricanes, two of which would be major, in the upcoming season.

The number of tropical storms and hurricanes could vary depending on how strong El Niño is, according to the Colorado State University report. Above-average temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean could also mean that “the potential still exists for a busy Atlantic hurricane season.”