Nasdaq closes out its first four-quarter slump since dot-com crash

The once high flying tech sector has endured a heavy selloff this year amid concerns that the sector’s growth could be curtailed by rising interest rates. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite is down more than 14%.

Chris Hondros | Newsmakers | Getty Images

A lot has changed in technology since the dot-com boom and bust.

The internet went mobile. The data center went to the cloud. Cars are now driving themselves. Chatbots have gotten pretty smart.

But one thing has remained. When the economy turns, investors rush for the exits. Despite a furious rally on Thursday, the tech-laden Nasdaq finished in the red for a fourth straight quarter, marking the longest such streak since the dot-bomb period of 2000 to 2001. The only other negative four-quarter stretch in the Nasdaq’s five-decade history was in 1983-84, when the video game market crashed.

This year marks the first time the Nasdaq has ever fallen all four quarters. It dropped 9.1% in the first three months of the year, followed by a second-quarter plunge of 22% and a third-quarter decline of 4.1%. It fell 1% in the fourth quarter because of an 8.7% drop in December.

For the full year, the Nasdaq slid 33%, its steepest decline since 2008 and the third-worst year on record. The drop 14 years ago came during the financial meltdown caused by the housing crisis.

“It’s really hard to be positive on tech right now,” Gene Munster, managing partner of Loup Ventures, told CNBC’s Brian Sullivan on Wednesday. “You feel like you’re missing something. You feel like you’re not getting the joke.”

Tech has been like a horror show this year, says Wedbush's Dan Ives

Other than 2008, the only other year worse for the Nasdaq was 2000, when the dot-com bubble burst and the index sank 39%. Early dreams of the internet taking over the world were vaporized. Pets.com, infamous for the sock puppet, went public in February of that year and shut down nine months later. EToys, which held its IPO in 1999 and saw its market cap grow to almost $8 billion, sank in 2000, losing almost all its value before going bankrupt early the next year. Delivery company Kozmo.com never got its IPO off the ground, filing in March 2000 and withdrawing its offering in August.

Amazon had its worst year ever in 2000, dropping 80%. Cisco fell 29% and then another 53% the next year. Microsoft plummeted by more than 60% and Apple by over 70%.

The parallels to today are quite stark.

In 2022, the company formerly known as Facebook lost roughly two-thirds of its value as investors balked at a future in the metaverse. Tesla fell by a similar amount, as the carmaker long valued like a tech company crashed into reality. Amazon dropped by half.

The IPO market this year was non-existent, but many of the companies that went public last year at astronomical valuations lost 80% or more of their value.

Perhaps the closest analogy to 2000 was the crypto market this year. Digital currencies Bitcoin and ether plunged by more than 60%. Over $2 trillion in value was wiped out as speculators fled crypto. Numerous companies went bankrupt, most notably crypto exchange FTX, which collapsed after reaching a $32 billion valuation earlier in the year. Founder Sam Bankman-Fried now faces criminal fraud charges.

The only major crypto company traded on the Nasdaq is Coinbase, which went public last year. In 2022, its shares fell 86%, eliminating more than $45 billion in market cap. In total, Nasdaq companies have shed close to $9 trillion in value this year, according to FactSet.

At its peak in 2000, Nasdaq companies were worth about $6.6 trillion in total, and proceeded to lose about $5 trillion of that by the time the market bottomed in October 2002.

Don’t fight the fed

The 'tech is dead' narrative will only last short term into 2023, says SVB's Shannon Saccocia

SPACs slumped in 2022

CNBC

‘Bargain basement’ shopping

Predicting a bottom, as all investors know, is a fool’s errand. No two crises are alike, and the economy has changed dramatically since the 2008 housing collapse and even more since the 2000 dot-com crash.

But few market prognosticators are expecting much of a bounce back in 2023. Loup’s Munster said his fund is holding 50% cash, adding that, “if we thought we were at the bottom we’d be deploying today.”

Duncan Davidson, founding partner of venture firm Bullpen Capital, expects more pain ahead as well. He looks at the dot-com era, when it took two years and seven months to go from peak to trough. As of Friday, it’s been just over 13 months since the Nasdaq hit its record price.

For private equity investors, in 2023, “I think we’re going to see a lot of bargain basement snarfing up of companies,” said Davidson, who got started in tech investing in the 1980s. To get to the market bottom, “we may have two years to go,” he said.

WATCH: The IPO market is as bad as it was in 2001

The IPO market is as bad as it was in 2001, and quick improvement is unlikely, says Bullpen's Davidson

For all the latest Technology News Click Here 

 For the latest news and updates, follow us on Google News

Read original article here

Denial of responsibility! TheDailyCheck is an automatic aggregator around the global media. All the content are available free on Internet. We have just arranged it in one platform for educational purpose only. In each content, the hyperlink to the primary source is specified. All trademarks belong to their rightful owners, all materials to their authors. If you are the owner of the content and do not want us to publish your materials on our website, please contact us by email – [email protected] The content will be deleted within 24 hours.