Mets vs. Cubs prediction, odds, pick: Carrasco’s road splits create value

On Wednesday, the New York Mets took care of business as they clinched a series win over the Braves with a dominant 7-3 victory. The Mets will now look to finish strong before the All-Star break with a four-game series against the Cubs in the Windy City.

Carlos Carrasco will get the start while Chicago will counter with Keegan Thompson.

After opening as a -145 favorite, the Mets have been bet down to -130. We’ll assess the matchup and examine what’s behind the line move before handing out our best bet.

Mets vs. Cubs MLB odds

Odds provided by BetMGM

Moneyline: NYM (-130) vs. CHC (+110)

Spread: NYM -1.5 (+125) vs. CHC +1.5 (-155)

Total: Over 7.5 (-105) | Under 7.5 (-115)

Mets vs. Cubs probable pitchers

Carlos Carrasco (4.55) vs. Keegan Thompson (3.04)

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Mets vs. Cubs prediction

Carrasco comes into this game at 9-4 with a 4.55 ERA. The right-hander has sometimes struggled on the road, given his 6.11 ERA. However, his advanced numbers point to some positive regression if you consider his 3.59 FIP and 3.55 xFIP.

While Carrasco has undoubtedly been spotty on the road, I’m surprised the Mets are just a short favorite against a Cubs team mired in a six-game losing streak. New York still boasts one of the more potent offenses as it ranks second in the National League with an above-average wRC+ value of 110.

I think the Mets will be somewhat buoyed by Wednesday’s performance against a quality pitcher like Charlie Morton. And with Atlanta trailing by just 2.5 games in the division, New York can ill afford a letdown against a Cubs team that’s 20 games under .500.

There’s no question that Thompson has been the Cubs best starter. The second-year pitcher is 7-3 with a 3.04 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. Nevertheless, his advanced metrics suggest he could be a candidate for regression, given his 3.62 FIP and 4.06 xFIP.

After pitching 53 1/3 innings in his rookie season in 2021, the Cubs are trying to manage Keegan’s workload in his second year. The right-hander has already thrown 77 innings, so there’s always a chance he will exit the game prematurely. If that’s the case, then Chicago’s bullpen could play an even more prominent role in this game.

If we look at the head-to-head matchups, Thompson could have the edge, given that the Mets’ current lineup has only eight plate appearances against him. It’s also worth noting that New York went hitless in each of those at-bats.

While sharp bettors are primarily responsible for the line moving down from -145 to -130, I think there should also be a correlation with the total going over. However, the market moved against me as the total’s been bet down from 8 to 7.5.

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After running the numbers, my model has a slight lean to the over with a projection of 7.86 runs. The total is 5-1-1 to the over in Carrasco’s last six outings, and his two career appearances against the Cubs also went over the total.

I’ve said before that I’m always reluctant to play totals. However, given the circumstances, I think the over remains the best play on the board.

I’ll be risking a half unit of my bankroll with the hopes we get a high-scoring game on Thursday at Wrigley Field.

Mets vs. Cubs pick

Over 7.5 runs -105 (0.5 units)