There’s Jacob deGrom, then there’s everyone else.
The Mets’ ace was well on his way to a historic season and Cy Young award in 2021 before injuries curbed that plan. This year, the National League is once again loaded with pitching, but deGrom stands alone at the top.
Next up? His new teammate, Max Scherzer.
There’s plenty of intrigue on the NL Cy Young odds board heading into the season, so let’s take a look at some of the top contenders.
1. Jacob deGrom (+250)
DeGrom’s odds are significantly lower than anyone else’s because, well, when healthy deGrom is far and away the best pitcher in baseball. He’s the favorite until he’s not.
2. Max Scherzer (6/1)
Scherzer surged last season after a July trade to the Dodgers and ultimately finished third in National League voting. He has won this award three times in his career and is showing no signs of slowing down at the age of 37. He could be a hero in Queens in no time.
3. Corbin Burnes (9/1)
The reigning Cy Young winner broke out in a big way in 2021, beating his 99th percentile projected outcomes by PECOTA and other projection systems. He headlines a Brewers rotation that is deep and scary.
4. Walker Buehler (10/1)
The best pitcher on the best team in the league is always a relatively safe bet. Buehler finished fourth in Cy Young voting a year ago and headlines a Dodgers rotation that will be pitching with leads more often than not in 2022.
5. Zack Wheeler (12/1)
Last season’s runner-up somehow flew under the radar a bit while playing for another pedestrian team in Philadelphia. He led the league in both innings pitched and strikeouts. Duplicating that would go a long way toward his contending once again.
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6. Brandon Woodruff (12/1)
Overlooked thanks to the breakout of his rotation mates (Burnes and Freddy Peralta), Woodruff is a consistent force in that aforementioned Brewers rotation. A fifth-place finish despite a 9-10 record shows voters don’t care so much about that meaningless win stat anymore.
7. Aaron Nola (15/1)
Will the production match the talent? The Phillies’ Nola already has two top-seven Cy Young finishes in his career, but struggled in the run prevention department a year ago with a 4.63 ERA. His strikeout numbers were superb and he actually posted the best walk rate of his career, though, so he was a bit unlucky.
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8. Max Fried (15/1)
The best pitcher on the defending World Series champion Braves doesn’t post the gaudy strikeout totals of some of the other contenders, but he takes the ball every fifth day and keeps runs off the scoreboard. The definition of a stealth contender.
9. Logan Webb (18/1)
The Giants surprised as a whole last season and perhaps none more so than Webb, who posted a career year across the board, particularly in both strikeout and walk rates. Webb won’t catch anyone by surprise this time around.
10. Jack Flaherty (20/1)
It was something of a lost season for Flaherty a year ago, as injuries limited the Cardinal to just 15 starts and 78 ¹/₃ innings. He was great when on the mound and an excellent bounce-back candidate with solid value.
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