Meta rallies as AI-powered ad sales drive ‘monster’ forecast

The Facebook owner was set to add over $70 billion to its market value, based on premarket movements, after strong second-quarter earnings encouraged 16 analysts to lift their target price on a stock that has already more than doubled this year.

“Meta (is) in a class-of-their-own in digital ads,” said Mark Shmulik of Bernstein, adding that its “monster guidance blew the doors off with an expected growth rate of +15-24% – numbers investors were hoping to maybe see as early as Q4.”

While Meta’s 12% rise in second-quarter ad revenue surpassed the 3% growth at Alphabet’s Google, earnings reports from both the digital ad behemoths reinforced a recovery in the sector.

Meta and Google are on track to add more than $170 billion to their combined market capitalization – a figure that is more than the individual market values of about 90% of the companies in the S&P 500 index.

Smaller rival Snap, however, disappointed on ad sales as advertisers stick to tried and true platforms.

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Meta’s results were also supported by improving monetization of Reels, a short-form video format that is the company’s answer to TikTok. CEO Mark Zuckerberg said Reels now has an annual revenue run rate exceeding $10 billion, up from $3 billion last fall. “Advertisers are gaining confidence in Meta’s enhanced and AI-powered campaign planning and measurement capabilities, and spending more. Unsurprisingly, Reels monetization keeps improving,” said Morningstar analyst Ali Mogharabi.

The positive analyst view reinforces how a focus on cost cuts and higher engagement through AI has helped Meta turn into a Wall Street darling this year after being derided for much of 2022 for its hefty spending on the ambitious metaverse.

Analysts have a median price target $342.50 on Meta, which represents an upside of 15% to its stock’s last close. The company has 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio of 21.28, higher than Alphabet’s 20.47 and the industry median of 15.18.

The accelerating revenue growth at Meta helped allay some concerns about an expected jump in expenses in 2024 due to legal fees and increased spending on infrastructure considered key to the tech sector’s feverish AI race.

“There is an element of uncertainty in CapEx spending growth for 2024. That said, we do also see a series of monetization opportunities that can be sprung out of these innovations,” said Mark Mahaney of Evercore ISI.