‘Massive question mark’: Expert’s emphatic Cup prediction

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Cup favourite Vauban and his stablemate Absurde should run well, but I think there is a couple of others who will beat them home.

Gold Trip is a year older and carrying a kilo more, but I actually think he is going better than he was last year.

I can’t see him not having a big say in this Melbourne Cup.

Soulcombe has been his own worst enemy, but with a little less pressure of early speed in a Melbourne Cup, if he can get away OK I think he is a horse that is made to run competitively in a Melbourne Cup.

Here’s my comprehensive analysis on every 2023 Melbourne Cup runner, as well as my final predictions below.

1. GOLD TRIP (barrier 2)

Weight: 58.5kg

Trainer: Ciaron Maher and David Eustace

Jockey: James McDonald

Career: 24: 3-5-5

Last 6: 0x4135

Win range: 2000-3200m

Earnings: $7,342,739

Odds: $4.80 (courtesy of TAB as of Sunday November 5)

Simon O’Donnell says: Last year’s winner, and form is even better going into the race this year. You can’t question his commitment in the Caulfield Cup and the Cox Plate. A year older and an extra kilo of weight I don’t think is going to worry him. One of the genuine top-three chances in the race.

2. ALENQUER (barrier 9)

Weight: 56.5kg

Trainer: Michael Moroney

Jockey: Damien Oliver

Career: 18: 5-2-1

Last 6: 00×059

Win range: 1408-2406m

Earnings: $1,502,333

Odds: $61 (courtesy of TAB as of Sunday November 5)

Simon O’Donnell says: A good closing effort in the Moonee Valley Cup. His best is competitive in this race, but he would have to be at his best. I don’t think a fast-finishing three-and-a-half length loss in a Moonee Valley Cup gives me the confidence to see him winning a Melbourne Cup at his next start.

3. WITHOUT A FIGHT (barrier 16)

Weight: 56.5kg

Trainer: Anthony and Sam Freedman

Jockey: Mark Zahra

Career: 22: 10-3-4

Last 6: x11x61

Win range: 1800-2787m

Earnings: $4,411,620

Odds: $6.50 (courtesy of TAB as of Sunday November 5)

Simon O’Donnell says: The Caulfield Cup champ. Failed miserably in this race last year, and I think that puts a massive question mark over his ability to run two miles. A mile and a half I think is his best trip, but his question mark now is whether he can go the extra 800m. A sticky draw doesn’t help when he may have to cover some extra ground over the two miles at Flemington.

4. BREAKUP (barrier 18)

Weight: 55kg

Trainer: Tatsuya Yoshioka

Jockey: Kohei Matsuyama

Career: 22: 5-3-4

Last 6: 0340×8

Win range: 2200-2500m

Earnings: $2,200,392

Odds: $18 (courtesy of TAB as of Sunday November 5)

Simon O’Donnell says: After winning the Golden Eagle on Saturday with Obamburumai you can never underestimate any horse coming from this racing jurisdiction. They have the best quality stayers in the world racing in Japan week in, week out. This guy finished the Caulfield Cup solidly, but I think will actually get better over the two miles. I have no problem in having confidence he can get a top-five finish.

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5. VAUBAN (barrier 3)

Weight: 55kg

Trainer: Willie Mullins

Jockey: Ryan Moore

Career: 14: 7-3-1

Last 6: 34211x

Win range: 2200-3382m

Earnings: $788,178

Odds: $3.50 (courtesy of TAB as of Sunday November 5)

Simon O’Donnell says: Drawn well in gate three. Has been the hot topic of conversation ever since he arrived in Australia. His last 12 months on the racetrack, both over jumps and on the flat, have been nothing short of superb, and Willie Mullins knows the type of horse it takes to be competitive in a Melbourne Cup. Expect him to be right in the finish.

6. SOULCOMBE (barrier 4)

Weight: 53.5kg

Trainer: Chris Waller

Jockey: Joao Moreira

Career: 15: 5-1-1

Last 6: 2×1437

Win range: 1700-2787m

Earnings: $792,306

Odds: $10 (courtesy of TAB as of Sunday November 5)

Simon O’Donnell says: The barrier is the key issue with this fellow, but is a genuine hope. Has been bred to run these sort of trips, he’s been in excellent form but his barrier manners have let him down each start this preparation. If Moreira can get him away cleanly, he’s a genuine chance of winning the Melbourne Cup.

7. ABSURDE (barrier 8)

Weight: 53kg

Trainer: Willie Mullins

Jockey: Zac Purton

Career: 15: 4-6-2

Last 6: 7×1261

Win range: 2000-4023m

Earnings: $704,905

Odds: $19 (courtesy of TAB as of Sunday November 5)

Simon O’Donnell says: Comes through a last-start win in the Ebor which has always been great form for the Melbourne Cup over the journey. Not as high-profile as Vauban but will be expertly conditioned to run the two miles, and I think bringing Ebor form in, the trainer, and a good draw is going to see Absurde being very competitive in this year’s event.

8. RIGHT YOU ARE (barrier 15)

Weight: 53kg

Trainer: Ciaron Maher and David Eustace

Jockey: John Allen

Career: 26: 10-4-4

Last 6: 1×2505

Win range: 1410-2400m

Earnings: $1,095,805

Odds: $51 (courtesy of TAB as of Sunday November 5)

Simon O’Donnell says: Ran out of his skin in the Caulfield Cup, a superb effort from him. One of the two Australian bred horses in the race. Expect him to do what he always does and give them his best. I’m just not sure the class is there for a top-three finish, but expect him to be in the first 10.

9. VOW AND DECLARE (barrier 19)

Weight: 53kg

Trainer: Danny O’Brien

Jockey: Billy Egan

Career: 37: 5-7-4

Last 6: 60×022

Win range: 1800-3200m

Earnings: $7,103,920

Odds: $26 (courtesy of TAB as of Sunday November 5)

Simon O’Donnell says: The second of the Australian bred runners, a former Melbourne Cup winner, his fourth appearance here. In really vintage form leading into the race, but I think since his 2019 victory the race has moved on a little. A competitive effort yes, a winning chance no.

10. CLEVELAND (barrier 23)

Weight: 52kg

Trainer: Kris Lees

Jockey: Michael Dee

Career: 15: 3-3-0

Last 6: x49621

Win range: 1811-3749m

Earnings: $841,873

Odds: $31 (courtesy of TAB as of Sunday November 5)

Simon O’Donnell says: Another of the Irish-bred gallopers and is coming off a win in the Mooney Valley Cup last start which was impressive. Hit the line really strongly and had impressive sectionals over the last 600m in the Moonee Valley Cup. Has the master colours of Lloyd Williams to carry, which that in itself gives him an excellent chance of being competitive in a Melbourne Cup. I expect him to be somewhere thereabouts.

11. ASHRUN (barrier 11)

Weight: 51.5kg

Trainer: Ciaron Maher and David Eustace

Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy

Career: 17: 4-3-1

Last 6: 10×762

Win range: 2200-2500m

Earnings: $578,819

Odds: $41 (courtesy of TAB as of Sunday November 5)

Simon O’Donnell says: Has had a number of soundness issues of recent times. He’s basically on the comeback trail, his effort in the Geelong Cup was outstanding for the racing he’s been able to do in recent times. He has class, I’m just not sure whether he can be conditioned enough to be a top chance in the Melbourne Cup this year.

12. DAQIANSWEET JUNIOR (barrier 12)

Weight: 51.5kg

Trainer: Phillip Stokes

Jockey: Daniel Stackhouse

Career: 27: 7-1-2

Last 6: 0x0074

Win range: 1600-3200m

Earnings: $798,642

Odds: $81 (courtesy of TAB as of Sunday November 5)

Simon O’Donnell says: Ran a top-10 finish in last year’s Melbourne Cup. A horse that genuinely stays the two miles, but whether he has the class to improve on last year’s effort to be a top-three finish will be his challenge. Trained differently this year with a lighter build-up to the race, trying to keep his legs a little fresher will genuinely give him his best chance.

13. OKITA SOUSHI (barrier 20)

Weight: 51.5kg

Trainer: Joseph O’Brien

Jockey: Dylan Gibbons

Career: 13: 4-2-3

Last 6: 115130

Win range: 2149-3219m

Earnings: $181,538

Odds: $81 (courtesy of TAB as of Sunday November 5)

Simon O’Donnell says: Was disappointing in the Caulfield Cup, and I think that can be forgivable for an international horse having his first run in Australia. He is a better horse than that. He’s run a placing in an Irish St Ledger, and that form gives him a genuine opportunity to be competitive, and you can never underestimate any of the O’Brien stables coming over from Ireland.

14. SHERAZ (barrier 22)

Weight: 51.5kg

Trainer: Chris Waller

Jockey: Beau Mertens

Career: 23: 4-5-2

Last 6: 5×0808

Win range: 2200-3000m

Earnings: $645,502

Odds: $101 (courtesy of TAB as of Sunday November 5)

Simon O’Donnell says: A horse that appreciates some give in the ground generally. I would question he has the class to run in the top three of a Melbourne Cup, but could possibly poke his nose into some prizemoney with a top-10 finish.

15. LASTOTCHKA (barrier 21)

Weight: 51kg

Trainer: Mick Price and Michael Kent Jr

Jockey: Craig Williams

Career: 12: 4-2-1

Last 6: 1×2341

Win range: 1800-3100m

Earnings: $292,365

Odds: $26 (courtesy of TAB as of Sunday November 5)

Simon O’Donnell says: A mare bred in France, now trained by Mick Price and Michael Kent Jr. There’s not a lot to this mare, she’s small, but is a very sweet mover which helps her cover the ground well. A lot will depend on how she’s settled into the Australian environment, because she needs everything going her way with the physical challenges in front of her. She’s got a good rider on board, distance shouldn’t be a burden, and if she runs to her best can be very competitive.

16. MAGICAL LAGOON (barrier 7)

Weight: 51kg

Trainer: Chris Waller

Jockey: Mark Du Plessis

Career: 13: 3-1-0

Last 6: 06×906

Win range: 1609-2414m

Earnings: $778,496

Odds: $126 (courtesy of TAB as of Sunday November 5)

Simon O’Donnell says: Another coming through a brave Geelong Cup run last start. Her form prior to that was well below what I think is required to be competitive in a Melbourne Cup. Trained by Chris Waller means she will be given every opportunity to be conditioned to run the two miles, the class is my question mark.

17. MILITARY MISSION (barrier 5)

Weight: 51kg

Trainer: Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott

Jockey: Rachel King

Career: 27: 7-5-3

Last 6: 920141

Win range: 1900-2400m

Earnings: $798,895

Odds: $34 (courtesy of TAB as of Sunday November 5)

Simon O’Donnell says: They will use that barrier and are likely to lead the race, which is typical pattern for the Waterhouse-Bott stable. Will be hard fit. Has won a Newcastle Cup and shown a nice turn of foot. This is a different class of race, and I do still have a slight question mark over his ability to run the two miles.

18. SERPENTINE (barrier 1)

Weight: 51kg

Trainer: Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott

Jockey: Jye McNeil

Career: 21: 3-3-1

Last 6: 129243

Win range: 2012-2420m

Earnings: $919,079

Odds: $61 (courtesy of TAB as of Sunday November 5)

Simon O’Donnell says: An English Derby winner in his early career in the UK. Has been honest this preparation without really having the turn of foot to put paid to a race at any stage building into this Melbourne Cup. I think he can be competitive in a solidly-run race, but I don’t know whether he has the class to knock over the better chances for a top-three finish.

19. VIRTUOUS CIRCLE (barrier 6)

Weight: 51kg

Trainer: Liam Howley

Jockey: Craig Newitt

Career: 13: 2-2-1

Last 6: 2×0908

Win range: 1500m

Earnings: $687,700

Odds: $126 (courtesy of TAB as of Sunday November 5)

Simon O’Donnell says: Bart Cummings run two starts back was OK, the Geelong Cup run was probably just below fair. Would have to turn around his form quite significantly to be competitive in this.

20. MORE FELONS (barrier 24)

Weight: 50.5kg

Trainer: Chris Waller

Jockey: Jamie Kah

Career: 14: 4-2-0

Last 6: 657285

Win range: 1609-3381m

Earnings: $193,746

Odds: $34 (courtesy of TAB as of Sunday November 5)

Simon O’Donnell says: Another with strong Geelong Cup form coming into this race. Geelong Cup form is generally held in high regard for the Melbourne Cup. Has been well beaten by some of his other overseas competitors in this race, which tends me to think his chances are limited to win this year.

21. FUTURE HISTORY (barrier 13)

Weight: 50kg

Trainer: Ciaron Maher and David Eustace

Jockey: Hollie Doyle

Career: 16: 6-4-1

Last 6: 721213

Win range: 1800-2520m

Earnings: $585,188

Odds: $26 (courtesy of TAB as of Sunday November 5)

Simon O’Donnell says: A good win in the Bart Cummings to give him his golden ticket to the Melbourne Cup two starts back. A solid effort in the Moonee Valley Cup, his last outing prior to this race. The Maher-Eustace camp are in scintillating form as they always are come carnival time, and he will be trained to the minute to give him his best chance of showing his maximum ability, which he needs to take into this race to be competitive.

22. INTERPRETATION (barrier 13)

Weight: 50kg

Trainer: Ciaron Maher and David Eustace

Jockey: Teo Nugent

Career: 16: 4-1-2

Last 6: x32591

Win range: 2012-2816m

Earnings: $587,850

Odds: $81 (courtesy of TAB as of Sunday November 5)

Simon O’Donnell says: Has a great profile from a breeding perspective to win this race – by Galileo out of a lovely staying family in France. Didn’t get through the race in 2022, but showed he was back to his best by winning the Bendigo Cup last start. His best form genuinely required to be competitive here, and whether the Bendigo Cup has turned him around enough to give a bold showing here is hard to recommend.

23. KALAPOUR (barrier 14)

Weight: 50kg

Trainer: Kris Lees

Jockey: Zac Lloyd

Career: 19: 5-3-4

Last 6: 3L7331

Win range: 1500-2551m

Earnings: $587,076

Odds: $61 (courtesy of TAB as of Sunday November 5)

Simon O’Donnell says: Winner of the Lexus on Saturday. I think as the years have gone on it’s become harder and harder to run on Saturday and be competitive on Tuesday. He looked brilliant in the mounting yard on Saturday and ran accordingly. A big challenge from Kris Lees now to get him up three days later to be competitive in a Melbourne Cup.

24. TRUE MARVEL (barrier 10)

Weight: 50kg

Trainer: Matthew Smith

Jockey: Ben Thompson

Career: 53: 8-7-5

Last 6: 138080

Win range: 2100-3800m

Earnings: $766,340

Odds: $126 (courtesy of TAB as of Sunday November 5)

Simon O’Donnell says: Drawn OK in barrier 10 for Matthew Smith. Placed in a Sydney Cup, competitive in a Brisbane Cup. But his form this preparation looks to be well short of a horse that could take out the 2023 Melbourne Cup.

SIMON O’DONNELL’S 2023 MELBOURNE CUP TIP

1st Gold Trip 2nd Soulcombe 3rd Vauban 4th Absurde

How the race will play out: I think everyone will be looking for Gai’s horse Military Mission to lead.

There will be other horses that will have no problems sitting on speed – some of those who don’t have as much chance, they have to put them into the race.

There will be enough early pressure, but I think our winner is going to come from three to six pairs back, so just off the leading pack to midfield.

I think it’s going to be a really solidly run Melbourne Cup, so if anything has a question mark over its ability to run two miles that will come to the fore.

That’s where I am with Without A Fight. Some of these horses – and he is one of them – with a tough-run two mile I’m not sure they are going to be in the final 200m.

I’m sticking to the old faithfuls because I think it will be a really tough two miles.