Manchester United failed January transfer swap highlights David de Gea strength

Manchester United’s Dean Henderson has struggled to oust David de Gea as the club’s no.1 goalkeeper this season.

In fact, his lack of game time almost resulted in a loan move in the January transfer window. The MEN understands that Newcastle United attempted to land the English goalkeeper until the end of the campaign, but the switch fell through because Martin Dubravka rejected a move in the opposite direction.

The Slovakian wanted to be reassured about minutes on the pitch – which was the reason behind his decision to remain on Tyneside – but if he’d moved to Old Trafford, the Red Devils would have added one of the few goalkeepers who seems able to compete with De Gea’s remarkable shot-stopping.

It is difficult to truly capture the influence of a goalkeeper, but Expected Goals (xG) can be applied in order to gauge some form of understanding.

xG offers an insight into the likelihood of an attempt being scored by considering aspects such as shot location, and it tends to provide an accurate summary of whether a team deserved fewer or more goals based on their shots.

Post-shot xG can be applied to goalkeepers as it specifically focuses on shots that hit the target and takes into account the quality and trajectory of the shot, thus relating to shot-stopping.

Dubravka has been expected to concede around 165.9 goals in the Premier League based on the shots on target he’s faced since 2017, but the Toon no.1 has actually shipped just 148 excluding own goals.

That essentially means he’s saved shots to an above average standard, overperforming expectation by an impressive 17.9 goals.

Over the same period, Manchester City’s Ederson has overperformed by 5.9 goals, and Jordan Pickford has largely performed just below expectation, underperforming by a marginal amount of 1.4 goals.

In the cases of Ederson and particularly Pickford, the pair of goalkeepers are closer to an average standard in terms of shot-stopping than Dubravka, who has saved to a high level.

De Gea has been equally as strong over the period in question. The Spaniard has saved 18.8 goals more than expected, which places him above Dubravka and amongst the best, and explains why he’s United’s first-choice goalkeeper.

Thankfully, despite Dubravka’s failed transfer, Ralf Rangnick still has De Gea at his disposal.