Heat, Lakers’ playoff runs prove how meaningless NBA regular season has become

Only once in the history of the NBA playoffs had a No. 7 seed reached the conference finals. The same could be said for a No. 8 advancing all the way to the sport’s biggest stage, the NBA Finals. 

This postseason has already seen the former happen (the No. 7 Lakers), and entering Sunday night, it was two wins away (the No. 8 Heat) from the latter occurring. 

It speaks to the parity of a sport often criticized for being too top-heavy, the rare instance April and May are full of unpredictable results. But it also creates a problem for the league that isn’t going away: The NBA’s regular season has never mattered less. 

Between load management and the lack of defense that is played, it is clear that games from October to April aren’t held in high regard or mean anything come springtime. 

If the Heat continue their winning ways against the Celtics, they will join the 1998-99 Knicks as the only No. 8 seeds to reach the NBA Finals, and that Knicks run can at least be partially attributed to the lockout-shortened season that year. The Lakers, facing a sweep at the hands of the top-seeded Nuggets, are the second No. 7 seed to ever reach the conference finals, along with the 1986-87 SuperSonics. 

The Lakers and Heat were both incredibly average during the regular season. The Lakers were 16th in NET rating, outscoring the opposition by 0.7 points per 100 possessions. The Heat, at minus-0.5, were 21st. They were both in the bottom third of the league in defensive rating and had losing records on the road. This was partly done by design. Heat star Jimmy Butler missed 18 games. Key reserve Kyle Lowry appeared in only 55 contests. The Lakers’ duo of LeBron James and Anthony Davis combined to play in 111 of a possible 164 games. 

Some of this can be attributed to good fortune. The second-seeded Grizzlies were without big men Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke due to injury in their first-round series loss to the Lakers. The No. 1 Bucks didn’t have two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo for most of the first three games in the opening round against the Heat, and he wasn’t the same upon returning. Knicks All-Star Julius Randle missed Game 1 of the second round against the Heat, a Miami victory that set the tone for that series. Then again, sharpshooting guard Tyler Herro fractured his right hand in Game 1 of the Bucks series, and that hasn’t stopped the Heat. 

Then, there is the nature of the game, the playoffs compared to the regular season. It just isn’t the same game at all. During the regular season, 11 teams averaged at least 116 points and 10 produced an offensive rating of at least 116 (points per 100 possessions). In the playoffs, just two teams have scored 116 points and five managed an offensive rating of 116. The league average in scoring during the regular season was 114.7. It is 110.5 in the playoffs. 

It’s like everyone realizes defense is suddenly important once the postseason begins. 

The question begs to be asked: Is this postseason the beginning of a trend? Are the Heat and Lakers a preview of future unexpected playoff runs from underwhelming regular-season teams? Are they an anomaly? 

It’s easy to see other teams mimicking the formula set by both of the teams, which is to say treat the regular season like a series of scrimmages. Rest your stars. Don’t go all out for seeding. 

It obviously doesn’t always work. It didn’t happen for the Clippers, who are known for resting their star players, though injuries to Paul George and Kawhi Leonard obviously were a major detriment to their chances. So many teams practice load management without these kinds of results. The Heat and Lakers may encourage those that stay away from it, however. 

The benefit of being fresh for the postseason clearly outweighs that extra home game. Being forced to play your way into the playoffs didn’t hurt anyone this year. The Heat, despite playing two play-in games, are on the doorstep of the NBA Finals. The Hawks, who beat the Heat in the play-in tournament, took two games off of the heavily favored Celtics. The Lakers went from the play-in to the conference finals. 

The play-in tournament has many pluses. It gives the NBA an NCAA Tournament feel, a win-or-go-home vibe. It adds extra teams to the mix. But it does reward mediocrity. The idea behind it was by extending the playoff field, more teams would be resistant to tanking. Obviously, Mark Cuban and the Mavericks didn’t get that memo. One negative by-product is that it lessens the importance of the regular season. For teams that treat the 82-game marathon as they should, which is to say try to win each game, there isn’t enough of a reward. One extra home game isn’t enough. Four teams pulled opening-round upsets and two lower-seeded teams advanced in the following round. 

The Lakers and Heat have shown that all that really matters is getting in. Anything can happen from there. A strong regular season has never meant less.