Grizzlies vs. Spurs prediction: Memphis in good spot to cover

Rest and motivation are some of the biggest factors when handicapping the NBA. 

The Grizzlies are closing out a four-game road trip Wednesday night after having two days off. The Spurs will play their third game in four nights and the second leg of a back-to-back. 

The potential return of third-leading scorer Desmond Bane should provide another boost for Memphis. Bane missed three games due to health and safety protocols, which had a huge impact on a team that was already missing Dillon Brooks and Kyle Anderson on the wing. Bane is averaging 17.7 ppg while shooting 42 percent from behind the arc and it’s no surprise the Grizzlies’ offense is 4.4 points per 100 possessions better with him on the court (+114.4) vs. off (110.2). 

The Spurs defense allows 111.4 points per 100 possessions, which ranks 20th in the NBA. The Grizzlies shoot the seventh-highest frequency of field-goal attempts at the rim (33.9 percent) and the Spurs give up the second-highest frequency of shots, so expect the Grizzlies to attack the paint at will. 

The Spurs likely will lose the possession battle as they’re the fifth-worst defensive rebounding team in the league, rebounding just 27.8 percent of opponent misses, while the Grizzlies are second in offensive rebounding (31.5 percent). Expect the Grizzlies to outwork a tired Spurs team. 

The play: Grizzlies, -2.5.