It doesn’t get much bigger than this.
Not only does the 2022 World Cup final feature two soccer powerhouses, but the two teams are led by generational talents at opposite ends of their career.
On one side stands Lionel Messi and Argentina in what will likely be the all-time great’s final match for his nation, and on the other side is 23-year-old Kylian Mbappe, looking to lead France to their second consecutive title.
Adding to the drama is the fact the bookmakers are having an awful time separating these two teams. As it stands right now, France is a slight -112 favorite to lift the trophy, but this is as close to a pick ’em as you can get in soccer.
And it does make sense that the betting market views both of these teams as equals. In fact, you could argue there are a lot of similarities between La Albiceleste and Les Bleus.
The most obvious similarity is that they’re both led by two generational superstars. It’s an oversimplification to say that whoever has the better game between Messi and Mbappe will decide who wins the match, but it’s definitely a big part of the equation.
And to that end, it does seem like Mbappe should have the better matchup. Though Messi tends to operate in the middle of the pitch and work his magic from there, Mbappe’s speed and ability to stretch defenses is perhaps his greatest power. The French midfield, led by Antoine Griezmann and Aurelien Tchouameni, should stand a decent chance of containing Messi, while the flanks of the Argentinian defense aren’t as well-equipped to slow down Mbappe.
There’s also some more general stylistic concerns for Argentina in this matchup. La Albiceleste want to be on the ball and dictate tempo in possession, while France performs at its peak when it can defend and counter through Mbappe or Ousmane Dembele out wide. And though Argentina has got the talent to pick apart any team, they’ve yet to face an elite side like France. Argentina’s toughest opponent, the Netherlands, gave it a host of issues defensively.
In fact, though Argentina’s defensive numbers look strong in this tournament, the two teams that really tried to get balls in behind their defense — Saudi Arabia and the Netherlands — exposed some cracks in the sky blue and white armor.
The French also have some defensive concerns of their own, but they’ve been most vulnerable against counterattacks, which really isn’t how Argentina will play this one. If you allow France to get organized, you’ll find it tough to break them down.
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As the odds suggest, this will be a match decided by the finest of margins. But France’s ability to contend with Messi and Argentina in the midfield gives them enough of an edge that they should be a bigger favorite.
Back the French to become the first country since Brazil in 1962 to win back-to-back World Cups.
Bet France to win (-110, BetMGM).
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