First to last: Where they will finish in Melbourne Cup

Form analyst Chris Vernuccio believes the rest of the field is racing for second and third as he predicts where every runner will finish from first to last.

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1st. INCENTIVISE

Saddlecloth number: 2 (Barrier 16)

He could be a freak. Trounced his Caulfield Cup rivals by 3½ lengths — the biggest winning margin since Might And Power — even after he was stuck five-wide past the winning post the first time. Can match the champion’s deeds and become only the 12th galloper to complete the Cups double.

2nd. SPANISH MISSION

Saddlecloth number: 3 (Barrier 14)

The best credentialed international in the field. He nearly held off champion stayer Stradivarius in the Lonsdale Cup, and while Stradivarius may be well past his prime that’s still a very high standard of competition.

3rd. GRAND PROMENADE

Saddlecloth number: 16 (Barrier 21)

Primed for The Bart Cummings and won comfortably, and looks like he’ll run out the two miles. He’s had a similarly long preparation like his stablemate Persan, who won the race last year before running fifth in the Melbourne Cup.

4th. VERRY ELLEEGANT

Saddlecloth number: 4 (Barrier 19)

Huge run in the Cox Plate when the widest runner turning for home. The six-year-old mare is following a similar program to 2013 Cup winner Fiorente.

5th. TWILIGHT PAYMENT

Saddlecloth number: 1 (Barrier 2)

History is against the defending champ — no nine-year-old has won the Melbourne Cup and the last winner to carry 58kg was Makybe Diva in 2005, which was also the last time a horse went back-to-back — but he’s rediscovered his form at the right time and there’s only a handful of internationals this year.

6th. PERSAN

Saddlecloth number: 12 (Barrier 11)

Tough effort on the speed in the Caulfield Cup and kept fighting to hold on for third. That will have him tuned up for the Cup, and his fifth placing last year proved the 3200m isn’t a concern.

7th. TRALEE ROSE

Saddlecloth number: 21 (Barrier 12)

Improving with each run this prep, culminating in a narrow victory in the Geelong with signs she is looking for more ground. Forget her run in the Adelaide Cup in March when she was at the end of her campaign.

8th. FLOATING ARTIST

Saddlecloth number: 22 (Barrier 10)

An unlucky second in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup — and that’s an understatement, he should have won by panels — and wasn’t ridden to his strengths in the Coongy Handicap. Has snuck into the field and he’s a smoky.

9th. SIR LUCAN

Saddlecloth number: 24 (Barrier 18)

Gai Waterhouse says her import is “probably a preparation away” but northern-hemisphere three-year-olds have an outstanding record in recent years and that must be respected.

10th. DELPHI

Saddlecloth number: 7 (Barrier 3)

Damien Oliver may have outsmarted himself when he tried to keep favourite Incentive off the track in the Caulfield Cup then had no option but to lead. May have raced flat after backing up from his Herbert Power Stakes win so he can rebound.

11th. THE CHOSEN ONE

Saddlecloth number: 6 (Barrier 5)

Coming off a disappointing performance in the Caulfield Cup but his form until then had been good. A third in last year’s Caulfield Cup followed by a fourth in the Melbourne Cup shows he does have the ability to run well.

12th. PONDUS

Saddlecloth number: 15 (Barrier 1)

Disappointing in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup on face value when heavily spruiked and backed accordingly. However, you can’t discount any runner from the Lloyd Williams camp.

13th. SHE’S IDEEL

Saddlecloth number: 19 (Barrier 20)

Honest mare who’s had a great prep with a third in the Winx Stakes before winning the Group 3 Kingston Town Stakes. May lack the class but has heart.

14th. GREAT HOUSE

Saddlecloth number: 23 (Barrier 7)

Had to dig deep to win the Hotham Handicap, which wasn’t a vintage edition of the race. Performed above market expectations when fifth in both the Caulfield Cup and The Metropolitan so he’ll give his all.

15th. EXPLOSIVE JACK

Saddlecloth number: 5 (Barrier 4)

Won three Derbies earlier in the year and narrowly missed out on a fourth but hasn’t quite made the step up to open company just yet and was well beaten in the Caulfield Cup.

16th. PORT GUILLAUME

Saddlecloth number: 18 (Barrier 23)

The import hadn’t made much of an impression in his first three Australian starts but there was some hidden merit in his Caulfield Cup run.

17th. MIAMI BOUND

Saddlecloth number: 17 (Barrier 17)

Her first two runs this prep were ordinary but she made some inroads in her past two runs, which were on soft-rated tracks. She would need rain to have an impact.

18th. FUTURE SCORE

Saddlecloth number: 20 (Barrier 15)

The rank outsider but he’s far from the worst. Last spring won the Cranbourne Cup and ran third in the Hotham Handicap and Sandown Cup but hasn’t fired this time.

19th. MASTER OF WINE

Saddlecloth number: 14 (Barrier 6)

His third in The Bart Cummings has been the exception to what he has produced this spring. Last win was in March last year, which was his fourth in a row at the time, but hasn’t reached the heights expected.

20th. KNIGHTS ORDER

Saddlecloth number: 11 (Barrier 9)

Won the Brisbane Cup by a space in June but has been well beaten in his four spring runs.

21st. OCEAN BILLY

Saddlecloth number: 8 (Barrier 13)

Will need some Chris Waller magic after an average Australian debut in the Caulfield Cup.

22nd. CARIF

Saddlecloth number: 13 (Barrier 8)

Throws in the odd decent performance but form is otherwise uninspiring.

23rd. SELINO

Saddlecloth number: 9 (Barrier 24)

Has done nothing since his shock Sydney Cup win back in April.

24th. JOHNNY GET ANGRY

Saddlecloth number: 10 (Barrier 22)

Beaten a combined 48 lengths in his past two starts. That’s uncompetitive.

EVERY RUNNER RATED AND VERDICT

The fields is set for the 2021 Melbourne Cup.

But where should you be putting your money? Racing expert Stephen Brassel has the scouting report on the entire field.

Check out his in-depth preview below.

1 TWILIGHT PAYMENT (58kg)

9yo (G)

Starts: 36-1-8

Trainer: Joseph O’Brien

Jockey: Jye McNeil

Barrier: 2

Comment: Tough effort leading throughout to win last year with 55.5kg and rises 2.5kg but his form is arguably better this time around.

Verdict: No 9yo has ever won and 58kg makes it too tough. Place would appear best chance.

2 INCENTIVISE (57kg)

5yo (G)

Starts: 12-9-0-0

Trainer: Peter Moody

Jockey: Brett Prebble

Barrier: 16

Comment: Unbelievable journey from Sunshine Coast maiden in April to the Melbourne Cup, winning nine straight and getting better every time he goes to the races.

Verdict: Will go forward and be there throughout. He’s the one they have to beat. Yes.

3 SPANISH MISSION (57kg) 

6yo (H)

Starts: 18:6-4-3

Trainer: Andrew Balding

Jockey: Craig Williams

Barrier: 14

Comment: High-quality English stayer who was beaten narrowly by champion galloper Stradivarius in the Lonsdale Cup at York last start. His previous form was impressive, too.

Verdict: Right in the mix with ‘Willo’ aboard. Yes.

4 VERRY ELLEEGANT (57kg)

6yo (M)

Starts: 33:14-7-3

Trainer: Chris Waller

Jockey: James McDonald

Barrier: 19

Comment: Nine-time Group 1 winner and Australian Horse Of The Year. Great run last year when charging home for seventh and good in last week’s Cox Plate.

Verdict: Sensational mare, but she’s weighted right up there. No to win, but could place.

5 EXPLOSIVE JACK (54kg) 

4yo (H)

Starts: 12:5-1-2

Trainers: Ciaron Maher, David Eustace

Jockey: John Allen

Barrier: 4

Comment: Won Tasmanian, Australian and South Australian Derbys earlier in the year and had been ticking over nicely early in the prep, but poor last time in the Caulfield Cup.

Verdict: Head scratcher on last run. On his best he could place.

6 THE CHOSEN ONE (54kg)

6yo (H)

Starts: 35:6-5-3

Trainers: Murray Baker, Andrew Forsman

Jockey: Damian Lane

Barrier: 5

Comment: If you can forgive one bad run, he’s right in this as his form prior to an ordinary Caulfield Cup run was excellent. Fourth in this race last year, and he’s going just as good this time around.

Verdict: Doubt he can win, but place chance.

7 DELPHI (53.5kg)

5yo (H)

Starts: 10:5-1-0

Trainers: Anthony & Sam Freedman

Jockey: Damien Oliver

Barrier: 3

Comment: Lightly raced import impressive winning at Caulfield before failing in the Cup when had to do a lot of work from wide gate to lead.

Verdict: 2020 Irish St Leger winner and can improve with softer run. Place hope.

8 OCEAN BILLY (53.5kg)

6yo (G)

Starts: 25:7-1-1

Trainer: Chris Waller

Jockey: Damien Thornton

Barrier: 13

Comment: Raced wide with cover in the Caulfield Cup and finished midfield. His previous run over 3200m was a win in the Auckland Cup, so he can stay. But this is a completely different level to that race.

Verdict: Despite Waller’s magic, doubt he’s got the class.

9 SELINO (53.5kg)

6yo (G)

Starts: 20:3-5-2

Trainer: Chris Waller

Jockey: Fred Kersley

Barrier: 24

Comment: Sydney Cup winner last prep when he improved dramatically as he stepped out to 3200m. Well beaten in Caulfield Cup last time, though. Would need to improve dramatically to figure.

Verdict: Just not good enough on form.

10 JOHNNY GET ANGRY (53kg)

4yo (G)

Starts: 11:1-1-2

Trainer: Denis Pagan

Jockey: Lachlan King

Barrier: 22

Comment: Story of the spring when he won the Victoria Derby last year, but four runs this time around have been awful. Has been beaten a combined 48 lengths across his past two efforts. Did work well earlier in the week though.

Verdict: No fairytale for Denis this year.

11 KNIGHTS ORDER (53kg)

7yo (G)

Starts: 20:7-0-2

Trainer: Adrian Bott, Gai Waterhouse

Jockey: Daniel Stackhouse

Barrier: 9

Comment: Led throughout to win the Brisbane Cup, earning him a Cup slot. Beat five rivals then. Three runs since have been below par.

Verdict: Will set the record as the longest priced winner in Cup history if successful. Won’t happen.

12 PERSAN (53KG) 

5yo (G)

Starts: 27:7-5-3

Trainer: Ciaron Maher, David Eustace

Jockey: Luke Currie

Barrier: 11

Comment: Has been ticking over nicely and brave after racing on the pace when third in the Caulfield Cup. Meets the winner 1.5kg better and last year was fantastic when fifth.

Verdict: Looks to be going just as well as last year. Don’t underestimate.

13 CARIF (52.5kg)

6yo (G)

Starts: 37:3-8-1

Trainer: Peter & Paul Snowden

Jockey: Blaike McDougall

Barrier: 8

Comment: Plodder who finished second behind Knights Order in the Brisbane Cup. Was beaten nearly five lengths, and this time around has done little to enthuse over.

Verdict: Has his moments, but doubt this will be one of them.

14 MASTER OF WINE (52.5kg)

7yo (G)

Starts: 28:5-5-4

Trainer: Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes

Jockey: Fred Kersley

Barrier: 6

Comment: Looked a star early in 2020, but hasn’t won in 14 starts with just two placings in that time. Well beaten in Caulfield Cup and although his previous run was OK, he’s impossible to have.

Verdict: Hard to get enthused on what he’s doing these days.

15 PONDUS (52.5kg)

6yo (G)

Starts: 19:3-7-1

Trainer: Robert Hickmott

Jockey: Rachel King

Barrier: 1

Comment: Only beaten a length when fourth in Moonee Valley Cup, but the run was still a shade disappointing considering he was a short-priced favourite. Can improve.

Verdict: Certainly not the roughest, but hard to be confident of winning.

16 GRAND PROMENADE (52kg)

6yo (G)

Starts: 19:8-4-2

Trainer: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace

Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy

Barrier: 21

Comment: Raced his way into the Cup via The Bart Cummings. This gelding is right up there with the chances having won four times with four seconds in past nine starts. He’s simply tough as teak.

Verdict: Can put himself into the race and be there for a long way. Big chance.

17 MIAMI BOUND (52kg)

5yo (M)

Starts: 26: 5-0-5

Trainer: Danny O’Brien

Jockey: Patrick Moloney

Barrier: 17

Comment: Won the 2019 VRC Oaks at Flemington and also Moonee Valley Cup last year. Placed in the Tancred and Sydney Cup and recent fifth in the Moonee Valley Cup was a pass.

Verdict: Would need it wet to have any chance of placing.

18 PORT GUILLAUME (52kg)

5yo (G)

Starts: 10:4-0-0

Trainer: Ben & JD Hayes

Jockey: Harry Coffey

Barrier: 23

Comment: Has shown a couple of little glimpses in four Australian starts and beat the smart Gold Trip in France last year. Pass mark when plodding home in the Caulfield Cup.

Verdict: Could place at big odds.

19 SHE’S IDEEL (52kg)

6yo (M)

Starts: 25:6-6-5

Trainer: Bjorn Baker

Jockey: Craig Newitt

Barrier: 20

Comment: Has generally had a good preparation and solid effort down along the fence when seventh in the Caulfield Cup, though clearly beaten.

Verdict: Honest, but question her at 3200m.

20 FUTURE SCORE (51.5kg)

7yo (G)

Starts: 22:6-2-4

Trainer: Matt Cumani

Jockey: Dean Yendall

Barrier: 15

Comment: Three runs this preparation have for the best part been ordinary, and plodding effort when sixth in the Moonee Valley Cup. One plus is he races well at Flemington when a winner and thereabouts twice.

Verdict: Doubt he’ll be troubling the scorer.

21 TRALEE ROSE (51kg)

5yo (M)

Starts: 15:6-4-2

Trainer: Symon Wilde

Jockey: Dean Holland

Barrier: 12

Comment: Lightly raced mare who has been beautifully prepared. Fourth in the Adelaide Cup when there were excuses and four runs this time in have been perfect lead-ups including Geelong Cup win last time.

Verdict: With no weight, she’s right in it.

22 FLOATING ARTIST (50kg)

6yo (G)

Starts: 16:5-2-1

Trainer: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace

Jockey: Teo Nugent

Barrier: 10

Comment: Comes into this after finishing a desperately unlucky second in the Moonee Valley Cup when a certainty beaten. Has no weight on his back and highly talented galloper who is not without a chance.

Verdict: He was the last horse into the race but deserves his spot, unlike a few others. 

23 GREAT HOUSE (50kg)

5yo (G)

Starts: 14:4-2-3

Trainer: Chris Waller

Jockey: Michael Dee

Barrier: 7

Comment: Consistent type who has had a good preparation and turned in a solid effort when fifth in the Caulfield Cup after similar finish in The Metropolitan.

Verdict: Certainly genuine, but whether he has the necessary class is questionable.

24 SIR LUCAN (50kg)

4yo (H)

Starts: 8:2-1-0

Trainer: Adrian Bott, Gai Waterhouse

Jockey: Glen Boss

Barrier: 18

Comment: Least experienced horse in the race but does have plenty of ability. Worthy of respect with no weight on his back.

Verdict: Fits the profile of Rekindling and Cross Counter as northern hemisphere three-year-old, but only a place hope for mine.