Cup favourite will win ‘by 100 yards’

The Peter Moody-trained galloper is set to start one of the shortest priced favourites in the history of the great race.

Incentivise is an easing favourite with TAB Fixed odds currently offering $2.80 after the Caulfield Cup winner opened at $2.30 on Saturday afternoon following the barrier draw for the 166th running.

In the past 165 editions of the Melbourne Cup, 26 horses have started at odds of $3.20 (9/4) or less with just three of those favourites adding their names to the honour roll.

The most recent being the legendary Phar Lap in 1930 when he started the shortest priced favourite in the history of the race that stops the nation at 8/11 ($1.73).

The other two winners were Revenue 120 years ago in 1901 when the five-year-old gelding saluted at 7/4 ($2.75) and when inaugural Melbourne Cup winner Archer became the first multiple winner of the race, claiming back-to-back victories in 1862 as the 2/1 ($3) favourite.

The last horse to start a short priced favourite in the Melbourne Cup was the great So You Think in 2010.

Punters sent him off at $3 (2/1) but he couldn’t give the late great Bart Cummings a 13th Melbourne Cup win, finishing third behind international galloper Americain and local stayer Maluckyday.

Based on past performances of Melbourne Cup favourites that have started at $3.20 (9/4) or shorter – Incentivise should be a $9.67 chance on Tuesday.

HERE ARE THE 26 HORSES THAT HAVE STARTED AT $3.20 (9/4) OR LESS IN THE MELBOURNE CUP AND HOW THEY HAVE PERFORMED.

2010 – So You Think ($3) 3rd

1992 – Veandercross (9/4 – $3.20) 2nd

1971 – Gay Icarus (7/4 – $2.75) Unplaced

1970 – Voleur (9/4 – $3.20) Unplaced

1969 – Tails (2/1 – $3) Unplaced

1963 – Summer Regent (9/4 – $3.20) Unplaced

1958 – Yemen (9/4 – $3.20) Unplaced

1956 – Redcraze (7/4 – $2.75) 2nd

1955 – Rising Fast (2/1 – $3) 2nd

1948 – Howe (7/4 – $2.75) Unplaced

1940 – Beau Vite (7/4 – $2.75) Unplaced

1930 – Phar Lap (8/11 – $1.73) WINNER

1929 – Phar Lap (Evens – $2) 3rd

1928 – Strephon (9/4 – $3.20) 2nd

1926 – Pantheon (9/4 – $3.20) 3rd

1925 – Manfred (7/4 – $2.75) 2nd

1924 – Spearfelt (9/4 – $3.20) 3rd

1917 – Lanius (7/4 – $2.75) Unplaced

1912 – Duke Foote (6/4 – $2.50) Unplaced

1908 – Alawa (9/4 – $3.20) Unplaced

1901 – Revenue (7/4 – $2.75) WINNER

1874 – Goldsborough (2/1 – $3) Unplaced

1869 – Circassian (2/1 – $3) Unplaced

1863 – Musidora (2/1 – $3) 2nd

1863 – Rose Of Denmark (2/1 – $3) 3rd

1862 – Archer (2/1 – $3) WINNER

WHAT MAKES INCENTIVISE THE FAVOURITE?

By Ray Thomas

Staying sensation Incentivise’s frontrunning, take-no-prisoners style of racing has drawn inevitable comparisons with the great Might And Power.

Incentivise likes to lead or race on-pace and dominate his rivals with a combination of his high-cruising speed, superior stamina and sheer ability.

The Peter Moody-trained Incentivise’s extraordinary Caulfield Cup win last month, when he raced wide without cover but still powered away to win by nearly four lengths is the reason he is the shortest priced Melbourne Cup favourite since Phar Lap in 1930.

Might And Power had a similar racing pattern to Incentivise in 1997 when he completed the coveted Caulfield Cup-Melbourne Cup double.

Incentivise was penalised 1.5kg for his Caulfield Cup win and must shoulder 57kg in the $7.75m Lexus Melbourne Cup (3200m) at Flemington on Tuesday.

The marathon Cup distance represents a whole new pain barrier for Incentivise.

He hasn’t raced beyond 2500m in his 12-start career and the only horse to shoulder 57kg or more and win the Melbourne Cup in more than 40 years was the legendary Makybe Diva with 58kg when she completed her Cup three-peat in 2005.

But it could be argued Incentivise covered plenty of extra distance in the Caulfield Cup given the run he overcame during the race and Might And Power’s jockey Hall of Famer Jim Cassidy is adamant the gelding is better equipped to run the 3200m of the Melbourne Cup than Might And Power.

Cassidy pointed out that Incentivise seems to settle better in his races than Might And Power and is convinced he will have no trouble staying a strong 3200m in the Melbourne Cup.

“Incentivise will lead and relax for Prebble – this horse will stay for sure,’’ Cassidy said.

“The thing that impressed me about him in the Caulfield Cup was the way he broke away from them in the last 100m. He was so strong through the line.

“He gets into a nice rhythm and he loves it, he had his ears pricked the other day, it was amazing to watch.

“Put it this way, I wouldn’t want to be riding anything else in the Melbourne Cup than Incentivise.’’

Cassidy was on a roll now and asked this writer what the record winning margin was for the Melbourne Cup.

When I replied “eight lengths” – held jointly by Archer (1862) and Rain Lover (1968) – Cassidy predicted Incentivise could break the record on Tuesday.

“Whatever beats him will win the Melbourne Cup but what can beat him?’’ Cassidy said.

“I made a statement to the boys at trackwork this morning that Incentivise could win this by 100 yards!

“The further this bloke goes the further he will get away from them. This will be a chase, not a race.

“Incentivise first, daylight second. He will lead and sh– in!”

Originally published as Melbourne Cup 2021 favourite Incentivise win ‘by 100 yards’