Cowboys vs. Buccaneers odds, prediction, betting trends for NFL’s Thursday night Week 1 opener

The Buccaneers will open their Super Bowl 55 title defense against the Cowboys, a team that has gone 25 years since earning its last NFL championship ring. When Tampa Bay hosts the traditional Thursday night opener (8:20 p.m. ET NBC) against Dallas, the quarterbacks light up the marquee most (per usual) as Tom Brady duels Dak Prescott.

While Brady is coming off offseason knee surgery, Prescott hopes to be fully healed from the scary ankle injury that cut short his 2020 season and a shoulder issue that popped up in 2021 training camp. The Bucs’ loaded defense, which shut down Patrick Mahomes in its last game, will try to pick up where it left off against Prescott and an explosive overall Cowboys offense.

Brady will try to get the job done working against a rebuilding defense with plenty of weapons, led by wide receivers Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown. Prescott counters with CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup, along with backfield mate Ezekiel Elliott.

Will the Bucs make an early statement as they look to repeat? Or will the Cowboys pull of a shocker that sparks a confident turnaround with Prescott this season? Here’s the betting breakdown:

NFL WEEK 1 PICKS: Against the spread | Straight up predictions

Cowboys vs. Buccaneers odds for Thursday night

• Spread: Buccaneers by 8.5
• Over/under: 51.5
• Moneyine: Cowboys +310, Buccaneers -390

The Buccaneers have held firm as touchdown-plus favorites as they return their starting lineup (and then some) ntact. For the Cowboys, there have been some concerns about Prescott going into a hostile environment and a defense that may not be able to befuddle Brady much.

Cowboys vs. Buccaneers all-time series

This will be the 20th meeting between the teams. The Cowboys have dominated the previous 19 games, going 15-4. They have won of seven of the past eight matchups going back to 2006. But the Buccaneers haven’t been this dominant in a while when facing Dallas. In the past two games, in 2016 and ’18, the Cowboys won one-possesson contests by the simliar scores of 27-20 and 26-20.

Three trends to know

—66 pecent of bettors are siding with the Cowboys to keep the game within a touchdown and cover the spread.

—Only 51 percent of bettors are confident the game will go over the high point total, given the potential of the Bucs’ defense.

—The Buccaneers went 9-7 against the spread last season. The Cowboys were only 5-11 ATS during a mostly Prescott-less 2020.

Three things to watch

The Buccaneers’ run defense vs. Ezekiel Elliott

Whatever metric you use, the Bucs are nasty on opposing rushing attacks. They have had the No. 1 run defense in consecutive seasons, allowing a league-low 1,289 rushing yards at 3.6 yards per carry in 2020. That strong front seven is intact, which might mean tough sledding for Elliott, especially without stalwart right guard Zack Martin (COVID-19 list).

Elliott looks to be in great shape coming off his least efficient season, in which he averaged only 4.0 yards per carry. Prescott opening up things in the passing game will help, but don’t expect Elliott to help Dallas win via ball control.

The Cowboys’ pass defense vs. Tom Brady

Dallas finished with the No. 11 pass defense in 2020. That’s misleading, because the Cowboys were so bad against the run — No. 31 in yards allowed per game, No. 30 in yards allowed per carry — that opponents didn’t need to throw a ton to beat them, especially when Prescott wasn’t there to duel their QBs. The Cowboys are stronger at linebacker with first-round rookie Micah Parsons and a healthy Leighton Vander Esch but despite some pass-rush promise are suspect in the secondary away from young cornerback Trevon Diggs.

Brady will pick apart the back end by getting rid of the ball quickly and the Cowboys will be challenged with coverage mismatches created by the Bucs toggling between 11 personnel (with wideouts Evans, Godwin and Brown) and 12 personnel (featuring tight ends Rob Gronkowski and O.J. Howard).

Stat that matters

107.3

That is Brady’s combined passer rating in his previous four season openers, all with the Patriots. He went 3-1 in those games, averaging 299 passing yards with 9 TDs to only one INT. He did lose the last kickoff in New England in 2017, a shocking 42-27 upset loss vs. Kansas City, of all teams. Brady will be motivated to make sure there’s no surprise or any hint of a Super Bowl hangover for the Bucs.

Cowboys vs. Buccaneers prediction

The Buccaneers will control the game with Brady out of the gate with the offense looking sharp and causing problems everywhere for the Cowboys. Look for the Bucs to build a nice lead by halftime and stay unrelenting with passing and running so there’s little chance of Dak finishing the comeback with limited help from Elliott. Tampa Bay wants the party to continue as the strong favorite to win the NFC again. That means delivering a intimidating early message to the rest of the NFL.

Buccaneers 34, Cowboys 24