Covid-19 cases surge across Australia

Fewer people appear to be wearing masks and some are even failing to test themselves early to detect the virus.

With more than 550 million infections and 6.3 million deaths recorded worldwide, Covid-19 has become one of the most devastating pandemics in recent times.

After more than two years, most of the world – except China, where they are still striving for zero cases – is now trying to live with the virus by ditching restrictions and returning to travel.

But there can be no doubt Covid-19 has not gone away.

Should we be concerned about sub-variants and reinfection?

Gaetan Burgio, from the Australian National University, told NCA NewsWire BA. 4 and BA. 5 were now the dominant variants in Australia.

“These variants are highly transmissible and also more symptomatic than previous Omicron variants,” he said.

“These variants have quite evolved from the Delta and Omicron strains, and are therefore capable of vaccine escape, hence the increased incidence of reinfection.”

Dr Burgio predicts the latest outbreak will continue to spike over the next few weeks.

“As the virus is in perpetual evolution/selection, there will be additional variants coming,” he said.

“It is far from over. However, increased vaccine coverage and previous infections, even imperfect, protect against current and newly emerging variants and prevent transmission of the virus.”

Despite his belief the virus would not go away any time soon, Dr Burgio said people should not panic.

“I wouldn’t be too pessimistic and I don’t think we are in a ‘doom and gloom’ situation,” he said.

“The vaccine technology is improving at rapid pace and the technology evolves rapidly to promote sufficient immunity against the virus, even imperfect, against these variants.

“Without the vaccines, I would have been a lot more pessimistic.”

Molecular virologist Vinod Balasubramaniam, from Monash University based in Malaysia, told NCA NewsWire the virus would not be eradicated as long as it continued to mutate.

“Mutations are an essential evolutionary process particularly pertinent in the ever-changing nature of RNA viruses in adapting to their host. In other words, the virus’s genetic diversity increases over time,” he said.

“Viruses mutate because they’re constantly making copies of themselves in enormous numbers and each time it is transmitted from one person to another, the chances of making errors (mutation) are high.

“The longer the pandemic rages on, the more chances the virus has to evolve, especially in unvaccinated individuals.”

Will we see a return of tough restrictions and lockdowns?

Lockdowns remain common in China but it has left the country isolated.

It is also impacting China’s economy, with lockdowns and restrictions affecting the operation of traders to manufacturers.

The Australian government appears less inclined to follow China’s lead, instead effectively encouraging everyone to take responsibility for their own health.

Dr Burgio said he supported a return of some restrictions, such as wearing a mask to reduce the transmission rate and protect the vulnerable, but not full-scale lockdowns.

He also urged eligible people to get a fourth dose of a vaccine to reduce the severity and transmissibility of the variants, as well as the flu jab.

“It is really important to increase the vaccination coverage rate of the third and fourth dose to contain the outbreak,” he said.

“Localised lockdown measures, for example in aged care settings, could play an important role in reducing the transmissibility and infection rate to vulnerable people.

“However, I don’t believe a general lockdown, for example to an entire city or state, would be an adequate measure given the variants are now widely circulating.”

Dr Balasubramaniam said while infections were increasing steadily in Australia and other parts of the world, the mortality rate was not as high as the time when the Delta variant was at its peak comparatively.

“While our previous vaccinations still provide us with some form of immunity, if BA. 4 and BA. 5 continues to surge, booster doses are absolutely pertinent to reduce the burden in hospitals,” he said.

“As of now, the hospitals are still coping and there is no urgent need to reintroduce lockdowns similar to previous years.”

Dr Balasubramaniam warned current vaccines by themselves were insufficient to stem transmission, so increases in cases should be expected whenever public health and social measures were lifted, irrespective of vaccination coverage.

“I believe we should not let our guards down to continue with effective measures as we bring transmission under control,” he said.

“This includes, for example, wearing well-fitting masks in crowded areas, hand hygiene, proper cough etiquette, improving ventilation of indoor spaces, avoiding crowded spaces and being supported to stay home if unwell.

“Self-testing also plays an extremely important role in reducing community driven transmission. This actually has a direct impact to the number of cases and therefore mortality rates, especially in vulnerable groups.”

Was the federal government premature in scrapping the free rapid antigen test program?

Federal Health Minister Mark Butler this week confirmed the free RAT program for vulnerable groups, which was introduced by the Morrison government in January, would not be extended after July.

Concession card holders, including pensioners and seniors, have been able to access up to 10 free tests over three months from participating pharmacies.

Mr Butler said July was “about the right time” for the scheme to end, adding there were no longer supply shortages and the price of the tests had come down.

But Dr Burgio said the decision to dump the program was a counter-productive measure and likely to prevent a good control of the outbreak.

“Even imperfect, RATs are an excellent tool to prevent transmissibility of the virus,” he said.

“Waiting at least until the end of winter would have been more adequate to me.”

Dr Balasubramaniam agreed the government got it wrong with the free RAT program.

“Ending the free rapid test program sends the wrong message about the risk of the virus,” he said.

“The pandemic is still not over, and we are in the midst of unprecedented rates of transmission and infection with the new sub-variants.

“Providing necessary means for the public to self-test and isolate if infected is really important.

“The overall impact of this is that the overall numbers of people testing will be dramatically reduced.”

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese this week also denied his government had made a mistake by allowing pandemic leave payments to expire.

Originally published as Covid-19 cases surge across Australia