Bull Market | Nifty: ETMarkets Fund Manager Talk: Biggest bull run for equities likely this decade if Nifty 500 tops 16100 pts: Turtle Wealth

How has Turtle Wealth maneuvered the volatility in equities and helped HNIs make money?
Our saga always have been ‘Deciding Exit First’, on that scale we have always been with the market trend and the sector, we believe in bottom up approach, and we have been finding investments by our PPP approach i.e. Price Profits and People. We don’t hold any big underperforming shares, we have changed our strategy from market to market, and we are on an average sitting on 25-35% cash at current levels, waiting for the right opportunity.

How do you expect equities as an asset class to perform over the next 2-3 months? What are the major downside risks?
The next 2-3 months looks very shaky. With the worldwide issues and Adani Saga, people have started losing confidence in markets and there is also the case of panic and despondency, as the market has not performed from the last 18 months.

For every 1 stock hitting a 52-week high, there are nine 52-week low stocks, and that’s the biggest problem in markets right now.

Our view is that consolidation and panic will prevail for 1-2 quarters, after that we will hit “THE BIGGEST BULL RUN OF THIS DECADE”, once Nifty 500 crosses 16100 levels, right now we are at 14400-odd levels.

Your 212 Growth Mantra fund has been underperforming for the last 6 months. Have you done any major rejig to this portfolio recently?
Growth Mantra is basically investing in small and mid-sized companies, and we don’t have exact benchmarking of small and mid-sized companies, so we have benchmarking as Nifty 500.

If you see the smallcap index, we have done much better than that. Also, we see underperformance by years and not in months. Though it is underperforming, the reason is we are not able to find great opportunities and the current business we hold didn’t demonstrate great success. But we hold good cash in our portfolio and are waiting for good business to buy out for the next 2-3 years.

The SVB crisis has become the talk of the town. Do you see any impact of this on India or the Indian banking system?
I believe it is a boon for India. Foreign investors, specially NRI/NRE/NRO, who were so much attracted to US markets, will again get attracted to Indian markets. The Indian financial system is extremely robust and the 1st recovery that will come will come 1st to India, and then the world.

But let’s understand that bad businesses are going to be punished whether in India or the US. There is no exception for the same.

Which are the sectors you are extremely bullish on over the next 1-2 years, and which ones are you bearish on? Could you also explain the reasons?
PSU, automobiles, metals and infrastructure are our top picks, especially PSU looks extremely a value buy. There isn’t much to lose into it, ironically all the other sectors we are bearish or neutral on.

Amid the current market situation, what kind of portfolio allocation will you recommend to investors?
Hold on your horses before breaking the discipline. Don’t exit, and be with a long-term objective. Market will test your patience but will reward your conviction. This is the best time for portfolio assessment. Remove the weeds and water the flowers.

More than 20 stocks will never make great wealth, so limit your portfolio to focused stocks and the best ones. Remember tough times don’t last, tough investors do.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)