Boise State vs. Colorado State prediction: Rams can keep up

Don’t look now, but Colorado State is on a roll — relatively speaking, of course. After starting the season 0-4, including a 31-point loss to Sacramento State, the Rams have won two of their last three games and actually sit at 2-1 in the Mountain West despite holding a 2-5 record overall.

A win over Boise State on Saturday and the Rams could fancy their chances of going to the Mountain West title game. The only problem? Colorado State is a 25.5-point underdog on the Blue Turf on Saturday night.

Boise State, too, started the season in pedestrian fashion, dropping two of its first four games. But since losing to UTEP by 17 points, the Broncos have turned things around and now find themselves with a 5-2 record and a perfect 4-0 ledger in the Mountain West.

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Everything is pointing to a Boise State rout on Saturday. But if you look hard enough — I mean really squint (and pray) — you can start to see a path to a cover for Colorado State.

The first thing that bodes well for the Rams is the game’s Over/Under, which sits at 42.5 points. Covering a four-score spread in a contest with a low total is not easy. Part of the reason for such a low total is the dreadful Colorado State offense, but there’s also a pace issue here. Both the Rams and Broncos rank outside the top-90 in terms of seconds per play, with Colorado State an absolute snail at 121st nationally. It’s no wonder that all seven of the Rams’ games have gone under the total this season.

More good news for us brave souls willing to back Colorado State is the fact both of these teams rush the ball more than 56 percent of the time, which should shorten the game and make it harder for Boise State to run away and hide.

And while the Colorado State offense has been terrible all season, the Rams’ defense is starting to round into form. After getting lit up for 169 points in its first four games (Michigan, Washington State, Sacramento State and Middle Tennessee State), Colorado State has given up just 44 points over its last three contests (Hawaii, Utah State and Nevada).

Colorado State’s overall metrics — the Rams rank 81st in rushing success rate and 88th in passing success rate — still look poor, but Pro Football Focus ranks this unit as the 25th-best in the country at the pass rush and 34th in pass coverage.

The other side of the matchup is quite ugly, as Boise State’s defense grades out as one of the best units in the Group of 5. There is a sliver of good news for the Rams, however, as they got quarterback Clay Millen back from injury last week. Millen paces the Mountain West in completion percentage (73 percent), so at least you can count on him to manage the game and keep it from getting way out of hand.

Betting on College Football?

It’s hard to imagine there will be many people rushing to the window to bet a terrible Colorado State team against the surging Broncos, but this is a good (albeit absolutely disgusting) sell-high spot with Colorado State catching Boise State in between Air Force and BYU.

Take Colorado State +25.5.