Seven of the 11 teams are projected to make the NCAA Tournament. Up to five of these schools feel like second-weekend threats. Multiple programs playing in the first round are capable of reaching the final night.
The Big East Tournament is back this week at the Garden, and it promises to be four memorable days after it was canceled two years ago and played before few fans last March. It is the premier event this week in town, as the ACC Tournament serves as the junior varsity at Barclays Center compared to the superior Big East.
Villanova is the betting favorite. Providence won the regular-season crown. Seton Hall enters the tournament red-hot. Connecticut, Marquette and Creighton are all capable of winning it all.
It all begins Wednesday afternoon at what will be a rocking MSG:
No. 1 Providence (24-4, 14-3)
Coach: Ed Cooley
Star: Sr. F Nate Watson (13.7 ppg, 5.5 rpg).
Watson had a better season statistically last year — averaging more points, rebounds and blocked shots — but they were hollow numbers in a disappointing season. Cooley has reduced Watson’s minutes and it has resulted in a better player late in games and at the end of the season, one of many smart adjustments the National Coach of the Year candidate has made.
X factor: Jr. G Jared Bynum (12.9 ppg, 4.5 apg).
It’s hardly a surprise that in Providence’s two worst performances of the season, lopsided losses to Virginia and Marquette, Bynum struggled. He’s been a revelation after a shaky first season at Providence following his transfer from St. Joseph’s, a lights-out 43.8 percent 3-point shooter who has been at his best when the game is on the line.
Strength: Clutch gene. Providence is a remarkable 14-2 in games decided by single digits. Simply put, it finds ways to win.
Weakness: Turnover margin. Providence is minus-two and is last in the league in steals per game at 5.1.
Can win title if: This week is a continuation of the Friars’ magical regular season. Picked seventh in the Big East, they won the league outright for the first time as one the nation’s biggest surprises.
BetMGM Odds: 5/1
No. 2 Villanova (23-7, 16-4)
Coach: Jay Wright
Star: Sr. G Collin Gillespie (16.3 ppg, 3.1 apg).
Who knows what March would have looked like last year for Villanova if Gillespie doesn’t tear his left MCL prior to the Big East Tournament. The Wildcats likely wouldn’t have lost to eventual champion Georgetown in the Big East Tournament, and may not have drawn Baylor in the Sweet 16. The fifth-year senior, the lone unanimous All-Big East first-team selection, has improved every season and shot a career-best 43.1 percent from deep this winter.
X factor: Soph. F Eric Dixon (9.6 ppg, 6.5 rpg).
Dixon’s emergence as a low-post option added a different dimension for the perimeter-oriented Wildcats. They are 12-3 when the southpaw scores in double figures. While undersized, the 6-foot-8, 255-pounder’s strength and variety of moves in the paint make him a tough cover.
Strength: Balance. Six players average at least 9.1 points per game, and three of them — Gillespie, Justin Moore and Caleb Daniels — are dangerous 3-point threats.
Weakness: Depth. Wright rarely goes more than seven-deep, which could be a factor if Villanova reaches the final on Saturday.
Can win title if: The cream rises. Villanova is the best team in the league, even if it did finish second. It swept regular-season champion Providence and has the league’s premier backcourt in Moore, Gillespie and Brandon Slater.
BetMGM Odds: +165
No. 3 Connecticut (22-8, 13-6)
Coach: Dan Hurley
Star: Sr. G R.J. Cole (15.8 ppg, 4.1 apg).
Pick a big moment for UConn, and Cole has been in the middle of it. He took a significant step forward in his second year in the Big East as the Huskies’ unquestioned answer in crunch time following the departure of James Bouknight to the NBA. He makes this team go.
X factor: So. G Andre Jackson (6.7 ppg, 7.1 rpg).
One of the Big East’s premier athletes, the 6-foot-6 Jackson is a terror in transition, an improving shooter and an elite perimeter defender.
Strength: Rebounding. The Huskies are plus-7.5 in rebounding differential, by far the class of the Big East in that category.
Weakness: Closing out games. Hurley’s team doesn’t get blown out, but has struggled late at times, losing seven games by six points or fewer.
Can win title if: The big three of Cole, Adama Sanogo and Tyrese Martin play like stars for three nights. UConn will defend, it will have plenty of support in the Garden, and few teams catch match its physicality. But its offense can go into hiding, especially late in games.
BetMGM Odds: 4/1
No. 4 Creighton (20-10, 12-7)
Coach: Greg McDermott
Star: Sr. F Ryan Hawkins (14.3 ppg, 7.7 apg)
One of the great stories in college basketball. Hawkins not only went from Division II to Division I, but he’s thriving. The versatile scorer is one of the keys behind Creighton’s unlikely top-four finish in the Big East and expected NCAA Tournament bid.
X factor: Fr. G Trey Alexander (6.4 ppg, 2.0 apg).
The four-star prospect was thrust into a major role when Freshman of the Year favorite Ryan Nembhard suffered a broken right wrist on Feb. 23. And he will now have to deal with “Havoc” in his Big East Tournament opener on Thursday against Marquette. Good luck, kid.
Strength: Defense. Creighton holds opponents to 40 percent shooting from the field, the 28th-lowest figure in the country.
Weakness: 3-point shooting. This isn’t the Creighton you’re accustomed to seeing. It is last in the league, tied with Butler at 31 percent shooting from distance.
Can win title if: It’s unlikely, especially without Nembhard. Creighton is a two-point underdog against Marquette. But it wasn’t even supposed to be in the NCAA Tournament mix. It wasn’t expected to finish in the top half of the Big East. Don’t count out these Bluejays, who feature one of the best frontcourts in the league in Hawkins, impressive freshman Arthur Kaluma and Big East Defensive Player of the Year Ryan Kalkbrenner.
BetMGM Odds: 12/1
No. 5 Marquette (19-11, 11-8)
Coach: Shaka Smart
Star: Soph. F Justin Lewis (17.1 ppg, 8.0 rpg)
The Big East’s Most Improved Player, Lewis blossomed under Smart, more than doubling his scoring average from a year ago and developing into a dangerous 3-point threat.
X factor: Fr. G Tyler Kolek (6.8 ppg, 5.7 apg).
The George Mason transfer has slumped of late, and Marquette closed the regular season by going 3-4. It’s not a coincidence.
Strength: Theft. Marquette notches 7.9 steals per game, led by Kolek’s 1.4 per game.
Weakness: Rebounding. Marquette is a distant last in the league with a minus-4 rebounding differential.
Can win title if: Marquette finds its defense that has gone somewhat missing in recent weeks. That end of the floor is what enabled the Golden Eagles to overachieve in Smart’s first season, and the recent lapses led to an uneven finish to the regular season.
BetMGM Odds: 14/1
Coach: Kevin Willard
Star: Sr. F Jared Rhoden (16.2 ppg, 6.9 rpg).
The Long Island native has followed in the footsteps of recent Seton Hall stars, starting as an unsung recruit and developing into a full-fledged go-to guy by his senior year. The uber-intense wing has hit his stride in the Pirates’ five-game winning streak, averaging 20 points and 7.8 rebounds while shooting 45 percent from 3-point range.
X factor: Soph. G Kadary Richmond (8.8 ppg, 4.3 apg).
Bryce Aiken’s near two-month absence due to a concussion has created extra responsibility for Richmond, and the multitalented Brooklyn native has responded. Seton Hall likes to run offense through the gifted 6-foot-6 Richmond in the post, and allow him to find shooters when double teams inevitably arrive.
Strength: Defending the 3. Seton Hall holds opponents to 30.8 percent shooting from the 3-point line, the best mark in the Big East.
Weakness: Playmakers. Seton Hall averages a league-low 10.5 assists, in part due to losing Aiken.
Can win title if: The last few weeks are an indication of a team that is ready to take off. Seton Hall closed the regular season winning eight of its last 10 and five in a row, ensuring its fifth trip to the Dance in the last six tournaments.
BetMGM Odds: 14/1
Coach: Mike Anderson
Star: Jr. F Julian Champagnie (18.9 ppg, 6.6 rpg)
When he’s on, the Brooklyn native has the ability to dominate a game. He scores at all three levels, but is at his best creating space and shooting over defenders with his 6-foot-8 frame.
X factor: Sr. F Aaron Wheeler (10.2 ppg, 4.7 rpg).
The Purdue transfer can fill it up from the perimeter and finish above the rim, providing a needed third scoring option behind Champagnie and point guard Posh Alexander. When he’s making shots, St. John’s becomes that much more dynamic offensively.
Strength: Forcing mistakes. St. John’s pressing style creates 16 turnovers per game, the 19th-highest number in the nation.
Weakness: Free-throw shooting. St. John’s shoots free throws at a 67.5 percent clip, one factor in so many of its narrow defeats.
Can win title if: The ball finally bounces St. John’s way. After so many poor finishes in close games, little things that eluded them, the Johnnies get key stops, make the right plays in the clutch and Champagnie discovers his inner Mariano Rivera.
BetMGM Odds: 28/1
No. 8 Xavier (18-12, 8-11)
Coach: Travis Steele
Star: Jr. F Jack Nunge (13.1 ppg, 7.5 rpg).
An inside-out force, the 7-foot Iowa transfer can do damage from the perimeter and in the paint. He blocks shots, doesn’t turn it over much and shoots a high percentage. Xavier couldn’t have asked for more from Nunge.
X factor: Jr. F Zach Freemantle (9.8 ppg, 5.1 rpg).
The Teaneck, N.J., native was one of the best players in the league last year and one of the most disappointing ones this season. October foot surgery clearly played a role. Xavier needs its star back. A run here isn’t possible otherwise.
Strength: Protecting the defensive glass. Xavier is the best in the Big East in defensive rebounding percentage at 74.2 percent.
Weakness: Momentum. Xavier enters the tournament having lost seven of its last nine games, and four of those by double figures.
Can win title if: The last month is irrelevant. Despite strong metrics and quality wins, Xavier hasn’t looked like an NCAA Tournament team in weeks, let alone a group capable of advancing past Thursday.
BetMGM Odds: 18/1
No. 9 Butler (13-18, 6-14)
Coach: LaVall Jordan
Star: Sr. G Aaron Thompson (8.2 ppg, 3.9 apg)
Butler’s offense runs through the southpaw playmaker. He was more effective last year, averaging more points, assists and shooting a higher percentage, which has been a major factor in Butler’s struggles.
X factor: Sr. G Bo Hodges (10.5 ppg, 6.4 rpg).
Injuries limited Hodges to just 15 games, severely hindering the Bulldogs. With Hodges in the lineup, Butler beat Creighton and Marquette, and nearly knocked off Providence twice and Seton Hall.
Strength: Nothing to lose. A forgettable regular season is over, and Butler isn’t expected to last past the opening night. It can play loose.
Weakness: Scoring. Butler averages a league-worst 63.1 points per game and is next-to-last in the Big East in field goal percentage (41.8) and tied for last in 3-point shooting percentage (31.0).
Can win title if: Gordon Hayward, Shelvin Mack and Matt Howard gain an extra year of eligibility and miss the Big East Tournament enough to return. In other words, Butler didn’t need to pack for more than a day or two.
BetMGM Odds: 35/1
No. 10 DePaul (15-15, 6-14)
Coach: Tony Stubblefield
Star: Sr. G Javon Freeman-Liberty (21.9 ppg, 7.3 rpg).
If not for a groin injury that cost him seven games, the senior would’ve been an All-Big East first-team selection. He led the conference in scoring and was 12th in rebounding despite his 6-foot-4 frame while significantly improving his perimeter jumper.
X factor: Soph. G Jalen Terry (8.5 ppg, 3.1 apg).
When he plays under control, and his jumper is falling, DePaul is a different team. He was at his best in the Blue Demons’ three best wins, over Marquette, Seton Hall and Xavier, averaging 19 points in those victories and hitting 8 of 20 3-point attempts.
Strength: Wing scorers. Freeman-Liberty, David Jones and Brandon Johnson — DePaul’s three leading scorers — are a handful to deal with on the perimeter.
Weakness: Shooting. DePaul is in the bottom fourth in the league in free-throw shooting (69.0), 3-point percentage (32.1) and field goal percentage (43.2).
Can win title if: No jokes this year, even if DePaul cutting down the nets Saturday night is as likely as a local team reaching the Final Four. This program took a step forward this year under Stubblefield. If not for nagging injuries to Jones and Liberty-Freeman, it could have finished in the top seven.
BetMGM Odds: 50/1
No. 11 Georgetown (6-24, 0-19)
Coach: Patrick Ewing
Star: Fr. G/F Aminu Mohammed (13.8 ppg, 8.1 rpg).
The five-star recruit didn’t quite live up to expectations in his first year under Ewing, but the raw talent is there. The jump shot needs work — Mohammed shot just a shade above 30 percent from 3-point range — and he will in time gain consistency. A building block for the future at Georgetown — granted he sticks around.
X factor: Sr. G Kaiden Rice (11.2 ppg, 2.5 rpg).
A sharpshooting transfer from The Citadel, Rice has in-the-building range and a ridiculously quick release to match. He spreads the floor, opening up driving lanes for Mohammed and point guard Dante Harris.
Strength: Room for improvement. It can’t get any worse on The Hilltop than a winless league season.
Weakness: Defending the 3. Opponents shoot 37 percent from beyond the arc. Only 23 teams in the country are worse.
Can win title if: Nope. Not going to happen. This would be too unrealistic for a fantasy.
BetMGM Odds: 150/1
Braziller prediction
Big East Champion: No. 1 Providence
Most Outstanding Player: Providence junior guard Jared Bynum
The Friars have a terrific draw, are well-rested and will play with a chip on their shoulders. They didn’t have a player selected to the league’s first team despite finishing first and believe lock-down wing defender Justin Minaya — the son of former Mets general manager Omar Minaya — was robbed of Defensive Player of the Year honors. After losing twice to Villanova during the regular season, Providence gets the better of the Wildcats in the title game, as Bynum takes over in the final minutes of a thrilling come-from-behind victory.
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