Baylor vs. Oklahoma prediction: Unbeaten Sooners will fall

It has been ugly, so it has been beautiful. The worst collection of top teams (excluding Georgia) in recent memory is producing one of the most unpredictable seasons in years. Even the Bulldogs aren’t safe. Even if the top-ranked team continues strangling every opponent until the playoff, the long-suffering school will have to survive the pressure of two postseason games to win its first national title in four decades, a feat only two of seven No. 1-seeds in the playoff era have accomplished.

Last week, a pair of undefeated teams (Michigan State, Wake Forest) lost to unranked opponents. Another four playoff contenders (Alabama, Oregon, Ohio State and Cincinnati) could have easily seen their hopes erased in games against teams currently holding losing records. And perennial playoff participant Clemson has worn a toe tag for more than a month.

Last week was the rare weekend Oklahoma didn’t deprive its fans of oxygen. The Sooners were on a bye.

But disaster is near. The undefeated and unimpressive six-time defending Big 12 champs now return for their three toughest games of the season (four, if a conference title game appearance is included) when the Sooners face Baylor (7-2), Iowa State (6-3) and Oklahoma State (8-1).

It is amazing the Sooners still hold their season in their hands. They have won by a touchdown or less against four opponents with losing records. They beat West Virginia (4-5) by three. They beat Tulane (1-8) by five. They beat Nebraska (3-7) by seven. They trailed Texas (4-5) by 21. And they trailed Kansas (1-8) in the fourth quarter.

Before you bring up the quarterback switch to Caleb Williams, Oklahoma is still allowing more than 30 points per game on his watch. And before you bring up the freshman’s brilliance, attach some credit for his numbers to the defenses of Texas Tech (ranked 77th), Texas (101st), TCU (116th) and Kansas (126th).

Now, the Sooners must face the three best defenses they’ve seen all season, starting with the Bears, the most balanced team they’ll face in the Big 12, sporting the league’s second-ranked offense and third-best scoring defense. It will not be shocking if Oklahoma loses at BAYLOR (+5.5). It will only be stunning if the Sooners somehow finish the regular season unscathed.

Michigan (-1) over PENN STATE

If not for officiating errors in the game against Michigan State — which Jim Harbaugh said the Big Ten recently admitted to — the Wolverines would still be undefeated. Nevertheless, the playoff is still in sight, with offensive balance and a relentless pass rush set to keep Sean Clifford uncomfortable.

New Mexico State (+51.5) over ALABAMA

Always take 50-plus points. Always. In Nick Saban’s two previous scheduling embarrassments — including a matchup against New Mexico State two years ago — the underdog prevailed.

Mississippi State (+5.5) over AUBURN

Outside of a blowout against Alabama, Mississippi State hasn’t lost by more than three points this season. Sophomore quarterback Will Rogers leads the nation with a 75.2 completion percentage, and ranks third in passing yards (3,307).

Georgia (-20.5) over TENNESSEE

The Bulldogs have allowed fewer points in their first nine games (59) than any team in the past 27 years. Even if Tennessee becomes the Bulldogs’ first opponent to score two touchdowns, Georgia shouldn’t have trouble exceeding its scoring average (38.4) against the nation’s 105th-ranked defense.

Purdue (+20.5) over OHIO STATE

The Buckeyes have too many new pieces to pretend they are the same power as in years past. Are we to pretend Ohio State wasn’t held to single-digit victories in its past two games or that its only three blowout wins came against its division’s only three teams with losing records? The Boilermakers, shooting for their third top-five upset of the season, won’t have any trouble convincing themselves they belong.

Minnesota (+5.5) over IOWA

Remember when — I know, Tony (R.I.P.), it’s the lowest form of conversation — the Hawkeyes were the No. 2 team in the nation? Since then, the Big Ten’s worst offense has averaged 10.3 points per game. Thoughts and prayers for those who lay points with Iowa, featuring a quarterback (Alex Padilla) who will be making his first career start against a defense that allows 18.3 points per game.

Maryland (+13) over MICHIGAN STATE

The Terrapins are no threat to pull off the upset, but the nation’s worst secondary will make it difficult for the No. 7 team in the nation to run away with the game. After allowing 536 yards passing in last week’s loss to Purdue, the Spartans face Taulia Tagovailoa, who leads the Big Ten in passing yards (2,755), has thrown for more than 330 yards on five occasions this season and ranks second in touchdown passes (18) and completion percentage (70.5).

Texas A&M (-3) over MISSISSIPPI

The Rebels’ defense can make any skill player look like a Heisman Trophy contender. Now, it’s running back Isaiah Spiller’s turn as he rides three straight games of 100-plus rushing yards into a meeting with the nation’s 111th-ranked run-stopping unit.

North Carolina State (+2) over WAKE FOREST

The Demon Deacons’ undefeated season ended on a day when they scored 55 points. Against the best defense it has faced all season, Wake Forest’s better half won’t be able to bail out its teammates as it has nearly all season.

Notre Dame (-5) over VIRGINIA

The Fighting Irish have long struggled against the nation’s best teams, but Brian Kelly always wins when he is supposed to. Notre Dame running back Kyren Williams will destroy a defense that has surrendered 235 rushing yards per game, as well as 106 total points in Virginia’s past two games.

OKLAHOMA STATE (-13.5) over Tcu

The Horned Frogs showed impressive resilience after unexpectedly losing longtime coach Gary Patterson. Now, they return to Earth against a Cowboys defense that hasn’t allowed more than three points in its past two games.

Washington State (+14) over OREGON

Since a 1-3 start to the season, the Cougars — who are coming off a bye — have won four straight conference games, most recently knocking off Arizona State on the road. Maybe Nick Rolovich will land another Power Five job by 2032.

Best bets: Purdue, Notre Dame, Washington State
This season (Best bets): 69-79-2 (17-13)
2014-20 record: 904-866-15