Bay Area ends May in midst of 6th COVID-19 surge

SAN JOSE – The Bay Area’s current sixth COVID-19 surge is still going strong, according to latest case counts, but may crest in the coming weeks, experts said.

In San Francisco, the 7-day rolling average is up sharply at about 500 new reported cases per day, up from 79 in late March. Hospitalizations are up sharply, currently at 98, up from 18 six weeks ago.

In Santa Clara County, the 7-day rolling average of reported cases is now at 1,050 per day, up from 140 in mid-March. Hospitalizations are up slightly, with 176 patients that have COVID, up from 79 in late April.

Dr. Bob Wachter, Chair of Department of Medicine at UCSF, tweeted about the San Francisco numbers over the Memorial Day holiday, saying it was a “big-time surge” and that the true number was likely greater than 2,000 cases per day”.

Wachter added, “If you’re trying to stay well, time to up your game.”

“The cases that we’re recording are likely underestimates,” said Dr. Vit Kraushaar, Santa Clara County Assistant Health Officer.

As to when the current surge might begin leveling off, Kraushaar has been monitoring prediction models from the State of California.

“Those models are predicting that the peak of a surge may come in mid-June. There’s a famous quote that says all models are wrong. So, we use this for planning purposes, but they’re not really a crystal ball to predict the future. So I wouldn’t place any money on that,” said Kraushaar. “When cases are going down I think people can perhaps be a little more relaxed but now that cases are going up now is really a great time to buckle down and take those steps to protect yourself.”

Genevieve Sanchez came in for PCR testing at Santa Clara County’s mass testing site at the fairgrounds after many of her eight grandkids tested positive. Sanchez said the family was careful throughout the pandemic, but ultimately couldn’t avoid the virus.

“They’re missing their last days of school! I really feel bad for the kids because they were looking forward to it. Last day of school is the best time,” said Sanchez.