Analysis | The road ahead is long for the Raptors. But it won’t determine their playoff fate

It has been some time since the Raptors played a significant late-season game against the Cleveland Cavaliers, yet here they are heading into a key matchup that could have serious post-season repercussions.

But it’s not like these are two hot teams that will face each other in Cleveland on Sunday night.

The Raptors have lost two straight and four of six out of the NBA’s all-star break, and for every step forward they take, they stumble back one or two.

The Cavaliers were one of the biggest surprises in the first half of the season, but are plummeting back to earth — losers of six of their last seven.

It’s left Cleveland clinging to a two-game lead over the Raptors in the race for the sixth and final guaranteed post-season spot in the East, and Toronto needing a win to have any chance at a tiebreaker advantage if the teams finish the regular season with the same record.

However, as the final quarter of the season descends, the thing the Raptors need more than anything is a good overall performance to take away the sting of consecutive disastrous offensive outings in losses to Detroit and Orlando.

“It’s kind of weird. We just didn’t seem to come out that good out of the all-star break, and I don’t know what to attribute that to,” coach Nick Nurse said after Friday’s 103-97 loss to the Magic. “Maybe too much rest? What’s that old saying: (A) body in motion tends to stay in motion and a body at rest tends to stay at rest? Well, we had ours in motion pretty good and we’ve got to go a little bit.”

The offensive woes are being chalked up to poor long-distance shooting and poor court spacing with key bits Fred VanVleet and OG Anunoby out with injury.

That is certainly a factor. The Raptors aren’t going to win many games when Gary Trent Jr. shoots as poorly as he has (a combined 6-for-25 from the field and 3-for-24 from three in two games) and the team as a whole goes a combined 19-for-63 (30 per cent) from beyond the arc. And without the ball-handling, shooting and spacing provided by VanVleet and Anunoby, the half-court offence does tend to bog down.

But there is so much more at play, factors than can be corrected far more quickly.

The Raptors are missing far too many makeable short shots that would more than offset their three-point shooting woes. Against the Magic, Toronto went 20 for 44 (44 per cent) on shots in the paint, about 10 per cent below the league average. Converting even a handful more might have been enough to get them a win, despite the three-point deficiencies.

“I’m seeing a lot of opportunities within three or four feet of the basket, and I’m seeing a lot of open threes,” Nurse said. “I’m not seeing heaves out there that nobody has a chance to make. We might have had a couple (against Orlando) — we always have a couple — (but) I’m not that disappointed with some of the looks.”

The game in Cleveland starts their last long road trip of the season, with five more games in the 10 days to follow. But with nine of their last 13 games at home, to put too much emphasis on this trip probably isn’t wise. In the jam-packed Eastern Conference, the final playoff seedings are going to come down to the last week of the season and there’s still plenty of time for the Raptors to make a move.

They should get VanVleet back some time on the trip since he’s now had a week of rest to get his bruised right knee healthy, and Anunoby should return well before the end of the season. So, holding serve on the road would likely be enough to allow the Raptors to put on a strong finishing kick.

“The sixth place? Well, I watch the standings. I don’t know if I’m zeroed in on sixth place or whatever,” Nurse said. “I watch (the standings) and know that it’s really wild. The team that’s seventh place in the East is closer (to first) than the team in second place in the West.”