Analysis | Maple Leafs camp storylines: New netminders arrive with baggage, and who plays with John Tavares?

Everyone loves a redemption story, and the biggest believer in the hockey world just might be Maple Leafs general manager Kyle Dubas.

When it comes to the goaltending tandem of Matt Murray and Ilya Samsonov, that is.

As a reminder, the perennially cap-crunched Leafs found themselves looking to the scrap heap for goalie help when Jack Campbell left for the riches of the Edmonton Oilers. Dubas ended up with Murray (via trade) and Samsonov (free agency).

Murray won two Stanley Cups with the Pittsburgh Penguins and should be in the prime of his career at 28, but instead is coming off a couple of dismal seasons in Ottawa: 15-25-3 with an .899 save percentage and 3.22 goals-against average as a Senator.

Samsonov is 25, a 2015 first-round draft pick discarded by a Washington Capitals team tired of waiting for his promise to be realized. He was 23-12-5/.896/3.02 last season.

The Leafs’ goaltending wasn’t all that terrific last season, either, with five netminders combining for a .900 save mark and 3.04 GAA. So, when training camp opens Wednesday, the spotlight will be on Murray and Samsonov as they start to get a feel for the team, and vice versa.

Coach Sheldon Keefe’s defensive structure may lead to one or both having that comeback year they’re hoping for. Or the Leafs might have to outscore their problems in net. Or maybe one of the understudies, Erik Källgren or Joseph Woll, will break through.

The goalie situation is part of a training camp script with intrigue at every position.

Who plays with Tavares?

The top line of Auston Matthews between Mitch Marner and Michael Bunting is likely set in stone, but whatever chemistry centre John Tavares once had with William Nylander seemed to disappear halfway through last season. The free-agent departures of Ilya Mikheyev (Vancouver) and Ondrej Kaše (Carolina) mean the second-line wingers could be brand new.

Alex Kerfoot, a defensively aware forward who never seems to complain about an assignment, would be a safe choice with Tavares, who promises to arrive a bit leaner. So would newcomer Calle Järnkrok, a free-agent addition starting a four-year contract. No better way to make the veteran feel at home than playing with the captain. The 30-year-old Järnkrok typically scores 10 to 15 goals. The hope, however, is probably that Nylander and Tavares can rediscover their five-on-five magic.

Through camp, prospect Nick Robertson — due to break through after call-ups the last two seasons — will also get a chance to show what he can do. He seems destined for a long look in a top-six forward role, after scoring 16 times in 28 games with the Marlies last year. Denis Malgin scored 40 goals in Europe over the last two seasons. He’s a long-shot, but if you’re going to bring him back you may as well give him a chance. Another long-shot is Adam Gaudette, supposedly over the ailments that hampered his last two seasons. His career high is 12 goals in 59 games with Vancouver in 2019-20.

The bottom six

David Kämpf is back for the final season of a two-year, $3-million (U.S.) deal. He seems to enjoy preventing goals as much as some players like scoring them, and appears to be a lock as the third-line centre. Pierre Engvall and Nylander would give that line size, speed and scoring power. Järnkrok could land there as well, as could newcomer Nicolas Aube-Kubel and his Stanley Cup experience after a year with the Colorado Avalanche.

Among the other candidates, Joey Anderson’s defensive play will get a long look during camp. The 24-year-old played just five games as a Leaf last year, but scored 26 times in 56 games with the Marlies. But circle the name Pontus Holmberg, a sixth-round draft pick in 2018 who seems ready for prime time after playing for Växjö of the Swedish league. He’s 23 and looks like an all-rounder.

Returning veterans Kyle Clifford and Wayne Simmonds have fourth-line roles that are theirs to lose, and Zach Aston-Reese will be in on a tryout. If the veterans are pressed, it could be by improving Marlies with size (six-foot-eight Curtis Douglas), tenacity (Alex Steeves) and speed (Robertson).

The long-shot here is Roni Hirvonen, captain of Finland’s under-20 team. The 2020 second-rounder will attend his first Leafs camp and didn’t look out of place as a 19-year-old (nine goals in 46 games) with HIFK Helsinki in Finland’s top league.

On the blue line

The biggest question on the blue line concerns Rasmus Sandin’s contract. The promising but oft-injured defenceman is a restricted free agent and seems worried about playing time, with good reason. He hadn’t re-signed as of Sunday.

The Leafs have a veteran corps: Morgan Rielly with T.J. Brodie, Jake Muzzin with Justin Holl, Mark Giordano with Timothy Liljegren. Newcomer Victor Mete would be next in line, but don’t forget Jordie Benn and Carl Dahlström, veterans who could fill in at a moment’s notice.

Another long-shot is Hirvonen’s friend and countryman Topi Niemelä. The 2020 third-rounder, heading into his first Leafs camp, shoots right and can run a power play. Another year in Finland is probably in the cards, however, for both Niemelä and Hirvonen.

The waiver wire

The Leafs have 14 forwards, six defencemen and two goalies on the roster and are $1,493,116 over the $82.5-million salary cap, according to capfriendly.com. That’s without Sandin, and there are no players on injured reserve. By the time the regular season opens Oct. 12 in Montreal, they will probably have to shed two roster players — maybe three, depending on whether they re-sign Sandin and for how much. Barring a trade or injury, the way to do that is via waivers. Simmonds ($900,000) and one of Clifford (two years at $762,500 per), Anderson ($750,000) or Gaudette ($750,000) would add up. Last season, they lost Adam Brooks (twice), Michael Amadio, Ryan Dzingel and Harri Säteri on waivers.

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