AI could predict Alberta forest fires before they start

Alberta, following a record-breaking summer of wildfires in Canada, is trying to use AI to predict where wildfires will break out. If wildfires can be predicted, their spread and damage can be more effectively managed.

The project is an extension of GovLab, a public AI lab formed through a partnership of the Alberta government, software company AltaML, and non-profit innovation hub Mitacs.

Predicting where wildfires will start is nothing new.

Wildfire officers are in charge of managing resources — people and equipment — while predicting where they’ll be needed most the next day. The danger is evaluated based on the weather and forest conditions, among other factors. The officers are also using their own years of personal experience and knowledge of the local communities.

The AI is meant to aid these officers, not replace them. It means more information at their fingertips, which allows them to make decisions more quickly.

“Working with AltaML has given us an opportunity to bridge the knowledge gap from an experienced person to maybe a less experienced duty officer able to have that tool available to them,” Ed Trenchard said.

Trenchard is a wildfire management specialist. He told The Canadian Press that the AI’s predictions aren’t perfect yet, but that each year, more data is added to improve it over time.

Studies regarding the use of AI for wildfire prevention have been ongoing for some time. Researchers at the University of Alberta had success with a similar project in 2019, one of whom, Mike Flannigan, has been working on this technology since 2016.

In addition to stopping the spread of wildfires, the AI might also save taxpayers up to $5 million a year. That’s because, according to Graham Erickson, the senior lead machine learning developer with AltaML, Alberta is very “risk averse.”

It spends money on resources that it doesn’t need, which costs between $2 million and $5 million per year.

Image credit: Shutterstock

Sources: Microsoft, CBC (The Canadian Press)

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