Ahead of Market: 10 things that will decide D-Street action on Thursday

Amid broad-based buying and expectation of a dovish policy action by the RBI Governor on Thursday, equity markets ended Wednesday’s session on a solid note, extending gains to the fourth consecutive session.

Aided by consumer goods, metals and realty stocks, the blue-chip Nifty 50 index was up 0.68% at 18,726, while Sensex closed 0.56% higher at 63,143. Both rose to more-than-six-month highs and were less than 1% off record highs. From the Nifty pack, top gainers included stocks like Britannia, Tata Consumer Products, BPCL, Nestle and HDFC Life.

Here’s how analysts read the market pulse:
“Investors are becoming more optimistic due to the anticipation of a positive revision in the RBI’s inflation forecast during the ongoing MPC meeting. It is expected that the RBI will maintain its pause on rate hikes, considering the significant improvement in inflation, which has now come within the RBI’s comfort zone. Furthermore, the participation of FIIs as net buyers, after a brief halt, contributed to today’s market rally, particularly driven by mid- and small-cap stocks,” Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services, said.

“On the daily charts, we can observe that the Nifty has closed above the previous swing high (18662), which indicates that it has started the next leg of the up move. It has the potential to target levels of 18800 and thereafter the all-time high of 18889. The daily momentum indicator has also triggered a positive crossover, which is a buy signal. In terms of levels, 18620-18580 shall act as the crucial support zone, while the hurdle zone is placed at 18800-18889,” said Jatin Gedia, technical analyst, Sharekhan by BNP Paribas.

That said, here’s a look at what some key indicators are suggesting for Thursday’s action:

US market
Nasdaq led Wall Street gains on Wednesday as technology shares rose, though investors refrained from making large bets ahead of inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting next week. Major technology and growth stocks, barring Microsoft and Amazon Inc, rose between 0.7% and 3.8%.

At 9:52 a.m. ET, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 38.17 points, or 0.11%, at 33,611.45, the S&P 500 was up 14.58 points, or 0.34%, at 4,298.43, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 83.28 points, or 0.63%, at 13,359.70.

European shares
European stock markets dipped on Wednesday and the U.S. dollar nudged higher as weak Chinese trade data had investors fretting about softening global demand, with attention turning towards next week’s pivotal inflation data and Federal Reserve meeting.

Meanwhile, Turkey’s lira plunged to a record low against the greenback as authorities appeared to loosen stabilising measures after the government signalled a pivot to more orthodox policies. The pan-European benchmark STOXX 600 was last down 0.2%. Germany’s DAX, France’s CAC 40 and Britain’s FTSE 100 were lower by 0.1%-0.4%.

Tech View: Long green candle
A long bull candle was formed on the daily charts with a gap-up opening. This indicates an attempt of an upside breakout of minor range movement, says Nagaraj Shetti, technical analyst, HDFC Securities.

Stocks showing bullish bias
Momentum indicator Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showed bullish trade on the counters of Vodafone Idea, Shree Renuka Sugar, IFCI, Adani Power and HPCL among others.

The MACD is known for signaling trend reversals in traded securities or indices. When the MACD crosses above the signal line, it gives a bullish signal, indicating that the price of the security may see an upward movement and vice versa.

Stocks signaling weakness ahead
The MACD showed bearish signs on the counters of Motherson Sumi Wiring, M&M Financial, Adani Enterprises, Tech Mahindra and Mphasis among others. Bearish crossover on the MACD on these counters indicated that they have just begun their downward journey.

Most active stocks in value terms
HDFC Bank (Rs 1998 crore), Suzlon Energy(Rs 1962 crore), Axis Bank (Rs 1543 cr), ICICI Bank (Rs 1546 crore) and RIL (Rs 1184 crore) were among the most active stocks on NSE in value terms. Higher activity on a counter in value terms can help identify the counters with highest trading turnovers in the day.

Most active stocks in volume terms
Suzlon Energy (Shares traded: 141.99 crore), Reliance Power (Shares traded: 23.42 crore), Vodafone Idea ( 3.55 crore), IRFC (Shares traded: 9.98 crore), and RVNL (7.77 crore) among the most traded stocks in the session on NSE.

Stocks showing buying interest
Shares of Suzlon Energy, Torrent Power, JBM Auto, Greenlam Industries and Max Healthcare witnessed strong buying interest from market participants as they scaled their fresh 52-week highs, signaling bullish sentiment.

Stocks seeing selling pressure
Shares of Viji Finance, Bombay Metrics, Sintex Plastics and Future Enterprises (DVR) among others hit their 52-week lows, signaling bearish sentiment on the counters.

Sentiment meter favours bulls
Overall, market breadth favoured bears as 2,259 stocks ended in the green, while 1,302 names settled with losses.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)

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