The NBA Finals start this week, as the Denver Nuggets and Miami Heat battle for the Larry O’Brien Trophy.
Denver is a sizeable favourite (-385), but you don’t have to deal with that much juice when betting on this series. In addition to an outright winner market, NorthStar Bets has odds for series spread, top individual scorer and more.
We’ll dive into some of our favourite picks in this Heat vs. Nuggets betting preview for the NBA Finals.
Heat vs. Nuggets betting preview
Miami’s NBA Finals odds went from +1,600 to +300 overnight with its Game 7 win in the Eastern Conference finals against Boston. But that still means the Heat are substantial underdogs against the No. 1-seeded Nuggets.
The underdog role is obviously nothing new for No. 8 Miami, which navigated the play-in round and defeated both the Bucks and Celtics en route to its second Finals appearance in four years.
NBA odds as of 4:50 p.m. ET on 05/30/2023.
Series spread
Best Bet : Nuggets -1.5 games (-175)
With a 12-3 record so far in the playoffs, Denver is making it look easy. And that’s why we’re still seeing a pretty juiced line for the Nuggets to win in six or fewer games.
If you’re a firm Nuggets believer — or perhaps a Jimmy Butler hater — take a look at Denver -2.5 games (+120). Denver has covered that line in two of three series, including a Western Conference finals sweep against the Lakers.
At -1.5, though, we can back the Nuggets at a number they’ve covered in all three playoff series. This has been the most dominant outfit of the playoffs, posting a +8.0 net rating across all games.
Denver is also the only unbeaten home team in the playoffs (8-0), so having home-court advantage should be huge.
If the Nuggets can hold serve at Ball Arena in Games 1 and 2, they’ll have a great shot at cashing this.
Heat vs. Nuggets player markets
Best Bet : Jamal Murray leading scorer (+250)
Jokic is a -10,000 favourite, respectively, to lead the series in assists and rebounds. Instead of hunting for a long shot in those markets, we’ll back his teammate at a nice number to lead the NBA Finals in scoring.
Murray was behind Jokic as the second-leading scorer on the Nuggets during the regular season, but the former actually took more shots per game (16.0 versus 14.8).
During the playoffs, they’ve been neck-and-neck in terms of shot volume and production:
| Player | PPG | FGA/G | FG% |
| Jokic | 27.7 | 21.2 | 53.8% |
| Murray | 29.9 | 21.3 | 48.0% |
Murray has actually been the Nuggets’ leading scorer in two of their three series so far. In the Western Conference finals, he averaged 32.5 PPG on 52.7% shooting. He also attempted 10 more shots than Jokic.
If you’re bullish on Denver’s two-time MVP filling the bucket more than anyone else, Jokic is +110 to be the leading scorer in the Finals. But we like Murray’s value at more than double that price.
Total games
Best Bet : Under 5.5 games (+105)
This is a riskier version of our pick for the series spread. If either team (more likely Denver) finishes things up in Game 4 or 5, this plus-money bet will cash.
Again, Denver has home-court advantage and has been thoroughly dominant in that setting so far during the postseason. In fact, that’s a continuation of its regular-season dominance, as the Nuggets were a staggering 34-7 at home this year.
| Game 1 & Finals outcome | Odds |
| Nuggets win Game 1, Nuggets win Finals | -250 |
| Nuggets win Game 1, Heat win Finals | +600 |
| Heat win Game 1, Nuggets win Finals | +600 |
| Heat win Game 1, Heat win Finals | +700 |
Denver hasn’t played since May 22, while Miami has played four times since then. That kind of steep rest advantage plays into the Nuggets’ hands, as they’re an NBA-best 18-4 with a rest advantage this year (regular season and playoffs).
To be even spicier, you could bet on the Nuggets’ exact series outcomes. They are +250 to win 4-1 (the shortest odds of any exact outcome) and +475 to earn a sweep.
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Disclaimer This content was produced as part of a partnership and therefore it may not meet the standards of impartial or independent journalism.
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