Either the Miami Hurricanes or UConn Huskies will be playing in the national championship come Monday night.
The pregame narrative: Adama Sanogo has been a force for the Huskies and we’re expecting him to have another monster night. We’re also backing Nijel Pack to record a pair of helpers and are taking a chance with a huge plus-money parlay.
Here are our best Miami vs. UConn Final Four prop bets for April 1.
NCAA basketball odds as of 12:06 p.m. on 04/01/2023.
Miami vs. UConn prop bets
Best Bet : Sanogo over 17.5 points (-110)
There’s dominant, and then there’s what Sanogo has been doing.
UConn’s 6-foot-9 power forward bulldozed through the Huskies’ first three games of the tournament, averaging 23.3 points on 75% shooting. He cleared this mark in each of those games.
The big man suffered a hiccup against Gonzaga, scoring just 10 points, but that didn’t matter much as UConn won by 28 points.
We’re expecting Sanogo to wreak havoc against the Hurricanes tonight.
Miami isn’t a great defensive team. It ranks 104th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency (101.4) and has the 218th-ranked scoring defence (71.9). The Canes specifically struggle inside the arc and allow opponents to shoot 51.6% on 2-point attempts (246th).
That’s right where Sanogo is best. In fact, he doesn’t even try to shoot from deep and has attempted just one 3-pointer this entire tournament.
Both of Miami’s starting big men — Jordan Miller and Norchad Omier — are 6-foot-7. They’re not bad defenders, but that’s a physical mismatch that Dan Hurley will surely want to exploit. Expect a steady diet of Sanogo in the paint all night long.
Key stat: Sanogo has gone over this total in four of his past five games.
Quick picks
Pack over 1.5 assists (-127) : We’re asking Miami’s starting point guard to rack up a pair of assists, which doesn’t seem like much.
Pack has cleared this total in each of the Hurricanes’ past three games with exactly two helpers in each contest. That’s a reflection of Miami’s play style. The team only assists on 50.6% of field goals made (174th) with an average of 14.6 helpers per game (55th).
That said, this is a low number and we’re willing to take slightly juiced odds on Pack to clear it.
Sanogo and Wong to score 20+ points each (+620) : We’re willing to take the plunge on this plus-money play. We’ve explained why Sanogo is poised to eat up Miami’s interior, so let’s turn to Wong.
The veteran shooting guard has recorded 20-plus points in three of his last five games including half of Miami’s tournament games. He also had two games with 20-plus points in last year’s tournament.
UConn’s defence has been great, but Wong has shown up time and time again in the biggest moments and we like his chances of pulling this bet over the finish line.
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