The best way to avoid a repeat of this fading Yankees lineup in 2023

Here in this little corner of Post Sports+, we always strive to be timely. And I can hardly think of anything more timely than …

The 2023 Yankees.

Particularly their position-player group.

What is timely about that? Well, have you been watching the Yankees hitters in the second half? Have you seen the formula of injuries, inadequacies and inexperience? That isn’t just a 2022 second-half problem.

Actually, we should start where we always start a Yankees discussion in 2022: with Aaron Judge. He is going to have (in all likelihood) an AL MVP award, 60-plus homers and every Yankees fan on this planet screaming at Hal Steinbrenner not to lose the best, most popular player on the team. So it isn’t exactly as if he needs much more negotiating ammunition. But this season has supplied it in many ways. His representatives should show up at the first negotiating session after this season holding a 2023 Yankees roster in one hand and a blank check in the other.

Because if you haven’t noticed, pretty much all of the Yankees’ good lefty hitters are due to be free agents, and what remains among the positional group is some combination of overly right-handed, addicted to the IL or trying to prove they belong in the majors — not the fabric of a New York club with championship aspirations.

In this world, Judge has been a giant in a land of lineup munchkins as injury and/or production decreases have struck Josh Donaldson, Aaron Hicks, DJ LeMahieu and Giancarlo Stanton. Each is under contractual control through at least next season. Do you think the concerns about them will lessen or worsen? Before you answer: Donaldson will play at age 37 in 2023, Hicks at 33, LeMahieu at 34 and Stanton at 33, and each has battled major or chronic health issues in the past few years.

That could raise the question of whether the Yankees should invest a few hundred million dollars to sign Judge through his 30s and what ultimately will include his decline phase. So the Yankees could walk away, but what would they be left with?

At this moment, these are the Yankees’ starters for 2023, including just players under control:

Catcher — Jose Trevino
First base — DJ LeMahieu
Second base — Gleyber Torres
Shortstop — Isiah Kiner-Falefa
Third base — Josh Donaldson
Left field — Aaron Hicks
Center field — Harrison Bader
Right field — Oswaldo Cabrera
DH — Giancarlo Stanton

Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe will be factors at some point, maybe even at the start of the season.

As cores go, that is not impressive. Even with Judge, the Yankees would have to figure out how to add a better group of insurance policies.

So why don’t we use 3Up to investigate three issues that we are seeing percolate that promise to be part of the 2023 roster decision-making. These issues are not going away even if Judge accepts, say, an eight-year, $313.5 million extension (note the Judge-favored symbolism of getting exactly $100 million more than the Yankees offered in the offseason and a positional record of $39.19 million per season):

1. The lefty issue

The Yankees finally conceded at the 2021 trade deadline that being too right-handed was a detriment, and they traded for Joey Gallo and Anthony Rizzo. Gallo proved another point that should help Judge in contract negotiations — not everyone is built to play in New York for the Yankees. Judge, like Derek Jeter, actually feeds off of the environment.

Gallo was traded at this year’s deadline. Rizzo signed a one-year extension last offseason with a $16 million option for 2023. Does Rizzo opt out? He has had a fine season, but he will play at 33 next year. He is currently on the injured list due to migraines that stem from care for a lower back issue that has beset the first baseman for years. So is it certain he can recreate even just the $16 million in the free-agent market? Might the Yankees tack on a $16 million team option for 2024 with some buyout dollars to convince him to stay? Do they want him to stay?

Matt Carpenter was a godsend uncovered during the year. He hit lefties and righties. He hit good pitching. He hit in the clutch. He capitalized on Yankee Stadium’s dimensions with his lefty power stroke. But he will be 37 next year. Will some other team be seduced by what was seen in 154 Yankees plate appearances to sign him for multiple years? Would the Yankees, coming off of a foot fracture that makes him iffy to return for the playoffs? If he returns, he could be part of a solution to replace Rizzo at first. Or if Rizzo returns, Carpenter could fill the utility role that he was excelling at before his injury.

Andrew Benintendi shook off a bad first week with the Yankees, and was hitting .303 with an .827 OPS in his past 24 games before suffering a broken hamate bone that makes his return this year dubious. Do the Yankees try to re-sign him?

The Yankees have had eight hitters take at least 30 plate appearances from the left side this year. Carpenter has a 1.138 OPS, Rizzo .832, Benintendi .734, Gallo .621, Hicks .611, Marwin Gonzalez .561, Cabrera .418 and Estevan Florial .337. Carpenter, Rizzo, Benintendi and Gonzalez are free agents. Gallo was traded. The returning lefties for 2023 are the switch-hitting Hicks and Cabrera plus the lefty-swinging Florial. The best major league-ready prospects, Peraza and Volpe, are righties.

This is why first baseman Freddie Freeman and shortstop Corey Seager were such appealing free agents last offseason for the Yankees. Both were big-game-proven lefty hitters at positions of need who could provide protection if Judge were to leave while improving the team’s championship possibilities in 2022. The coming free-agent market is without a lefty hitter of that ilk. The best of the bunch is likely Brandon Nimmo, who if he leaves the Mets would cost considerably more than Benintendi.

If the Yankees were to keep at least two of three from among Benintendi, Carpenter and Rizzo and add a versatile lefty swinger such as Jace Peterson in free agency or Arizona’s Josh Rojas in a trade, that really would help in 2023 as the Yankees wait hopefully for the lefty bats of outfielder Jasson Dominguez (a switch-hitter) and catcher Austin Wells, and the further-away duo of Spencer Jones and Trey Sweeney to arrive from the minor leagues.

2. Are the kids alright?

A favorite pastime of fan bases, including the Yankees’, is to scream for their club to summon top prospects and/or players who are performing well in the minors. This is akin to when the fan base screams for the backup quarterback who, when finally inserted into the lineup, shows everyone why he was the backup quarterback.

Miguel Andujar and Florial performed well at Triple-A, but they haven’t capitalized when given brief chances in the majors. Cabrera has shown no fear, a bit of a flair, a high baseball IQ and versatility. But will he hit eventually, or is he a 26th man? Can shortstop and/or second base just be handed to Peraza or Volpe next year? 

The Yankees really, really like Peraza and love Volpe, and they have made huge bets on them. They didn’t get into an elite free-agent shortstop class last year in part because they thought Peraza and Volpe would be in play no later than 2023. That would suggest they will not delve into the upcoming free-agent shortstop market for Xander Bogaerts, Carlos Correa, Dansby Swanson or Trea Turner. That could mean the Yankees would have minimum wage earners at one or two key spots, thus making it an easier sell for Hal Steinbrenner to spend what is necessary to retain Judge. That had to be part of the calculus in protecting Peraza and Volpe at this year’s trade deadline.

But is either a version of Jeter, a player who can be a high-end offensive contributor in his rookie year?

In the years between the arrivals of Jeter and Judge, there have not been many homegrown position-player success stories for the Yankees. Instead there too often have been meteors who then flamed out, quickly losing their value to the Yankees and in the industry. Andujar, Greg Bird, Clint Frazier and Gary Sanchez were supposed to join Judge to form a sustained championship nucleus. So was Gleyber Torres. Now the Yankees also are going to have to decide what to do with Torres in the offseason. Keeping him, trading him (what is the market for him?) or even non-tendering Torres has some possibility.

But this track record should make the Yankees hesitant to overly rely on Peraza and Volpe.

3. Will the defense rest?

The Yankees’ run prevention has remained generally strong even during their second-half regression. That attribute plus Judge’s bat has enabled the Yankees to win enough to retain first place in the AL East.

The Yankees do not want to get away from that. An outfield of Benintendi, Bader and Judge would be high-end. Peraza likely would be a defensive upgrade over Kiner-Falefa at short.

The defense of Jose Trevino and Kyle Higashioka behind the plate has been an important backbone of the team. Yankees catchers far and away lead all teams in Fangraphs’ version of defensive runs saved. Among the 114 catchers Baseball Prospectus ranks with their defensive metric, entering Thursday’s games, Trevino was first and Higashioka 10th. That is way more important than what they bring offensively.

Still, Trevino’s offense has cratered in the second half after his uplifting first half. And Higashioka has pretty much shown he will not hit in the majors. In fact, the only Yankees in history with at least 600 career plate appearances and a lower batting average than Higashioka’s .186 are pitchers: Lefty Gomez, Fritz Peterson, Mel Stottlemyre, Whitey Ford, Allie Reynolds and Eddie Lopat.

The Yankees can switch out Higashioka for the strong defensive reputation of Ben Rortvedt next year, but Rortvedt, though he hits lefty, projects to hit as badly or worse than Higashioka. Does that motivate the Yankees to invest even more prospect capital to try to land Sean Murphy from the A’s? A high-end, two-way catcher is a rarity in the sport these days, and two — Baltimore’s Adley Rutschman and Toronto’s Alejandro Kirk — are going to be in the Yankees’ division for a while.

What to do at third? In the best possible world, the Yankees would love to make the $29 million they owe Donaldson next year between salary and a 2024 buyout disappear. The same with the three years at $30.5 million owed Hicks. But no club is taking that on unless the Yankees eat a substantial portion and/or take back bad contracts. The Yankees very well may have to decide whether they want to release either. Do they bring one or both back and protect themselves with better security blankets? Hicks already is a fourth outfielder when the Yankees are closer to full strength.

Donaldson brings a downside, but he has helped the defense. LeMahieu also played well at third this year. But Donaldson, Hicks, LeMahieu and Stanton, plus Carpenter and Rizzo if they return, all provide that age/injury concern. At this point, it would be a bigger surprise if all six did not spend time on the injured list next year over even two staying off the IL all season.

Can the Yankees find more offense in the marketplace without a huge risk of injury and without a defensive downside? That is expensive if it is even available, and I don’t see Steinbrenner muscling up financially for Judge and another piece near the top of the market. Will Shohei Ohtani become available in a trade this offseason? He provides a starter whom the Yankees would love to have, but positionally he is a DH and what do the Yankees do in that event with Stanton, who at best can play the outfield a few times a week?

The Yankees owe Stanton $130 million over five years after this season, and — as with Donaldson and Hicks — I am not sure his contract is tradeable, certainly not without eating a huge chunk or absorbing bad contracts back. Plus, Stanton has a full no-trade clause, which he previously used to block deals from Miami to St. Louis or San Francisco and direct himself to the Yankees.

Thus, even if the Yankees keep Judge, there is a pretty good chance he will be surrounded again mostly by older and injury-prone or young and unproven players. We are, in real time, watching that future now.

For it to be more encouraging, the Yankees really are going to need Peraza and Volpe to emulate Judge — by coming from the system, being able to handle New York and delivering an immediate impact.