ET Now: What is the prediction for September? Also tell us about overall June to September.
DS Pai: As per our latest forecast, September is likely to be above normal. That would be more than 110% of the long-period average.
Good rainfall activity is predicted over central India, northwest India including Gujarat and along the west coast. These are among the regions which get rains during the month of August.
We are expecting that by end of this season the rainfall will be around the lower limit of the normal, i.e. around 96% of the long-period average. That is the prediction for June to September as of now.
Does it mean that the forecast is lowered, because you are saying it will be at the lower end of normal? What of the impact on sowing?
As per the latest information available, sowing activity up to July was totally okay — except for Gujarat, west Rajasthan and some northern parts. For all other regions, it was almost close to normal, or may be slightly less than normal.
Although less rainfall was received in August, regions that saw good rainfall up to July they were getting isolated rainfall everyday — though not of very large amounts. Therefore, I do not think there would be much impact on agriculture.
Besides, regions like Punjab have irrigation facilities. In Punjab and Haryana, so you can always go for preventive irrigation in case of less rainfall. I don’t think that was much impact except in Gujarat and Rajasthan.
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