Partner Content | Padres vs. Mets picks and odds: Joe Musgrove can help his Cy Young case in prime time
Two teams in great shape to make the playoffs will close the book on their season series with a Sunday Night Baseball matchup.
The pregame narrative: The New York Mets (58-37) host the San Diego Padres (54-42), looking to snap the Padres’ four-game streak in this head-to-head series. Mets starter Carlos Carrasco struck out 10 batters over seven innings when he faced the Padres in June.
Find all our Padres vs. Mets picks for July 24 below.
Padres vs. Mets picks overview
- Under 8 runs (-117)
- Padres moneyline, first five innings (-103)
- Jurickson Profar + Nomar Mazara over 0.5 hits apiece (+123)
Padres vs. Mets picks
Best bet: Under 8 runs
Sunday’s primetime matchup has one of the lowest run totals on the MLB slate, but that makes perfect sense for two teams who’ve consistently played low-scoring games recently.
Read more: Blue Jays vs. Red Sox picks
Six of the Padres’ past eight games have finished at or below this total, while the Mets have played to this total (or below) in nine of their past 10. That includes a pair of 4-1 victories for the Padres so far in this series.
Padres starter Joe Musgrove has been excellent both at home and on the road this year. That helps explain why he’s one of the leading candidates for the NL Cy Young Award.
| Situation | Record | ERA | WHIP |
| Home | 3-1 | 2.20 | 0.933 |
| Road | 5-1 | 2.59 | 1.000 |
As for Carrasco, his seven-inning, two-run start against the Padres last month gives us confidence that he can help keep tonight’s total low.
Then, of course, we have the two offences. Neither the Padres nor the Mets have performed well at the plate this month, scoring an average of 3.1 and 3.8 runs per game, respectively.
Key stat: In July, the Padres (89 wRC+) and the Mets (99 wRC+) have both fallen short of league-average offensive production.
Read more: Blue Jays vs. Red Sox prop picks
Quick picks
Padres ML, first five innings (-106): Even with Carrasco’s one stellar start against the Padres this season, we still believe Musgrove gives the Padres a great chance to succeed early in Sunday’s game.
Musgrove’s ERA is almost two runs lower than Carrasco’s, and the Padres righty is allowing just a .204 opponent batting average (fifth in NL). Also, the Padres have been leading or tied at the five-inning mark in seven of their past nine games.
Profar + Mazara over 0.5 hits apiece (+123): Profar and Mazara are a combined 9-for-18 in their careers against Carrasco. Pairing them together, to get one hit apiece, gives us a nice price on the prop market.
Carrasco ranks in the 40th percentile for expected batting average (.248), per Baseball Savant. This is a reasonable ask for two hitters in the top half of San Diego’s order.
Odds as of 11:21 a.m. ET on 07/24/22.
Disclaimer This content was produced as part of a partnership and therefore it may not meet the standards of impartial or independent journalism.
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