‘Only way’: Expert’s plea to Albo

While the northern hemisphere experienced their own Covid-19 battle during their winter — and are now dealing with Omicron sub-variants BA. 4 and BA. 5 like Australia — it seems we may be in for a tougher fight.

Cases are on the rise in 110 countries, causing overall global infections to increase by more than 20 per cent and more deaths, according to molecular virologist Vinod Balasubramaniam from Monash University in Malaysia.

Although they are similar to other Omicron sub-variants, BA. 4 and BA. 5 have mutations in their spike proteins that make it easier for them to infect human cells.

In addition, the natural waning of vaccine protection and the fact that many countries are lifting restrictions means the virus is likely to spread more easily.

How does Australia’s winter situation compare to the UK and broader Europe?

Gaetan Burgio, from the Australian National University, told NCA NewsWire that while Europe went through a similar wave in winter with the Omicron strain, the scenario was not comparable to Australia’s situation.

“Back in January, the third vaccine dose coverage was barely 30 per cent in Europe versus currently more than 70 per cent in Australia,” he said.

“While the vaccine coverage for the fourth dose is about 16 to 17 per cent, which is quite low, the variants BA. 4 and BA. 5 are more transmissible in a waning immunity scenario … which is currently happening in Europe.

“While in Australia we are not quite in a similar scenario to Europe back in January, the infection is significantly spiking at about 50,000 a day and there is always a possibility the number of cases spike significantly higher.”

Deakin University Associate Professor of epidemiology Hassan Vally told NCA NewsWire there was no doubt Australia was entering an extremely difficult period.

“We are not yet at the peak of infections and our health systems are already feeling the strain,” he said.

“Europe and the UK both experienced similar challenges during their winter, and it is clear that we are going to have to do everything that we can to slow down virus transmission over this challenging period.”

Is the “let it rip” approach dangerous?

Dr Burgio said complacency and the let it rip approach were not the best ways to tackle the virus.

“While I do get the fatigue in mask mandates and social distancing, a really important and devastating consequence of the infection is long Covid,” he said.

“While the prevalence of long Covid is still unclear and debated, the burden is massive to those that are affected and their families.

“We also need to be more proactive in protecting the vulnerable population, for example in aged care settings or the immunocompromised.”

Dr Burgio said the let it rip approach seen in other countries had been devastating, with more than 180,000 deaths and more than two million long Covid cases in the UK alone.

Dr Vally said Australia was not letting it rip and never had been, but people needed to take responsibility individually and as a community.

“We need to put in practice everything that we have learnt over the past couple of years, which include practising social distancing where we can, wearing high quality masks, practising good hygiene, avoiding crowds and working from home where we can,” he said.

“Most important of all, we need to make sure we are up to date with our Covid vaccinations and if you are eligible for a booster now is the time to get it.”

Dr Balasubramaniam told NCA NewsWire the let it rip approach was not based on science, but on a false sense of security that the current variants were just milder versions of the previous strains and it was just another flu.

“While the risk of hospitalisation and death from Omicron for people who are vaccinated is lower than it is from the Delta variant, it is not zero,” he said.

“The widely confirmed debilitating effects of long Covid should wipe all wrongheaded let it rip notions right out of our minds.”

According to an Oxford University study, more than one in three people experience “lingering post-Covid symptoms” up to six months after contracting the virus, he added.

“Experts have identified as many as 200 long-haul side effects associated with Covid, affecting 10 different organ systems,” he said.

Is the government taking the situation seriously enough?

Dr Burgio said he would have liked to see a mask mandate introduced.

“I found the position of the federal government disappointing,” he said.

“Covid is airborne transmitted and masks are effective against the transmission of the virus.”

But he said lockdowns would not be effective for this outbreak, except in aged care settings.

Dr Balasubramaniam agreed the government should enforce mask mandates, at least in indoor crowded public places, to reduce community transmission.

Dr Vally said the question of mask mandates was an emotionally charged topic.

“The assumptions for some of those advocating for this are that mask wearing alone can do the heavy lifting over this next few months, and the only way for us to achieve high rates of wearing masks is for this to be mandated,” he said.

“While it is unclear what the best path forward is, I think mask wearing alone can’t see us through this next few months.”

Can our hospitals cope with this new wave?

Dr Vally said hospitals were certainly going to be stretched in this next few months.

But Dr Burgio said looking back at the data, the number of hospitalisations and intensive care admissions was half of what we saw in January.

“As the healthcare system is better prepared after two-and-a-half years into the pandemic, I am confident the hospitals will cope with this new wave,” he said.

“I don’t think we will see an overflow of patients.”

Dr Balasubramaniam said while everyone was pandemic-weary, now was not the time to become complacent.

“The pandemic isn’t over and these new sub-variants are concerning,” he said.

“It’s likely that the Covid-19 virus will be with us for some years to come.”

Originally published as Health experts claim federal government has mishandled Covid-19