After Max Verstappen took the lead in the F1 driver’s championship on Sunday, Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc needs a bounce-back performance at the Monaco Grand Prix to keep last year’s champ from pulling away.
The pre-race narrative: Leclerc won pole at Monaco last year despite driving a car that wasn’t in the same league as the 2021 Mercedes or Red Bull. A driveshaft issue prevented him from starting that race but he could make up for that lost opportunity with a better-equipped car this time around.
Here are our best F1 Monaco Grand Prix picks for May 29.
F1 Monaco Grand Prix picks overview
- Leclerc to win (-106)
- Mercedes to land a driver on the podium (+120)
- Leclerc to set fastest lap (+125)
F1 Monaco Grand Prix picks
Best bet: Leclerc to win (-106)
Although you’d hope to get positive odds on an outright bet, it’s understandable that Leclerc is the clear favourite here.
Not only does he have a home-track advantage, but he’s also extremely well suited to this race.
Read more: How to bet on F1
That’s because Monaco’s most distinctive feature is that it’s extremely difficult to overtake. Entering last year’s edition, there were an average of just 12 overtakes per race, and just one took place in 2021.
That’s an extremely low number considering the average is in the 30s at races like the Brazilian and Bahrain GP. Because of the circuit’s narrow roads, there simply isn’t enough room to pass on the vast majority of it.
The processional nature of the Monaco race puts outsized importance on qualifying, and that’s where Leclerc shines. He’s earned pole position in four of the six races this season, including the last two.
If Leclerc was able to win pole in an inferior car in 2021, a repeat isn’t too much to ask — and it should be smooth sailing from there.
Key stat: The driver starting first has won three straight Monaco GPs while Leclerc has qualified first in his last two races — and three of his last four.
Quick picks
Mercedes to land at least one driver on the podium (+120): After struggling out of the gate, Mercedes seems to be finding its bearings as a team. At the Spanish Grand Prix, the duo of George Russell and Lewis Hamilton qualified fourth and sixth, by far their best collective performance of the season. If that momentum carries over to Monaco, Mercedes will be in good shape.
While overtaking Ferrari and Red Bull might be a tall task, Mercedes has had both cars finish every race, and that reliability gives it a good shot of taking advantage of any missteps by the frontrunners.
Leclerc to set fastest lap (+125): Although Red Bull has had the fastest lap in three straight races, we like Leclerc to get the most out of his Ferrari on streets he knows far better than his opponents. His three fastest laps on the season still lead the field, and Monaco isn’t known for the kind of massive straightaways that would allow Red Bull to capitalize on its raw pace advantage.
Odds courtesy of Sportradar, via NorthStar Bets, as of 12:48 p.m. ET on 05/24/2022.
Disclaimer This content was produced as part of a partnership and therefore it may not meet the standards of impartial or independent journalism.
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