When Philadelphia 76ers team president Daryl Morey pulled off the blockbuster Ben Simmons-James Harden trade with the Nets, the basketball world and sportsbooks were forced to take notice.
The 76ers’ odds to win the NBA championship immediately shortened from 12/1 to +750 with their odds to win the East dropping to 3/1 as of Feb. 10.
Harden didn’t make his debut until after the All-Star break, and the 76ers have gone 16-8 since. Despite having the seventh-best Net Rating during this span, the 76ers have seen their championship odds drop back beyond where they were before the trade at 16/1 at BetMGM with their odds to win the Eastern Conference currently sitting at 8/1.
The market seems to believe that the 76ers haven’t improved as much as anticipated with the Milwaukee Bucks, Brooklyn Nets, Boston Celtics and Miami Heat as front-runners to win the East.
Are the 76ers headed for another disappointing early postseason exit? Or can we trust the process to make a deep postseason run?
NBA titles are won with superstars and the 76ers may have found their very own Shaquille O’Neal and Kobe Bryant with Joel Embiid and Harden.
In their first 20 games with Embiid and Harden in the lineup together, the 76ers had a 13-7 record with a Net Rating of +6.9 which is a substantial improvement over the +4.1 Net Rating the 76ers had in games with Embiid and Seth Curry. Although the 76ers did go 24-12 in games with Embiid and Curry, they’ve seen their Offensive Rating jump from 115.2 to 123.6 with Harden taking his place on the team.
Embiid has been a dominant force this season, averaging 30.6 ppg on 49.9 percent shooting while also grabbing 11.7 rebounds and dishing 4.2 assists, number that would garner him the league’s Most Valuable Player Award in most seasons. Those numbers have gotten even better since the addition of Harden.
A big part of that success is the Harden-Embiid pick-and-roll, which has been deadly, generating 1.10 points per possession on direct plays in which Harden, Embiid or another player they pass to ends the possession. This number puts the 76ers in the top 10 per Second Spectrum and we’ve seen the rest of the starting lineup benefit from Harden’s play-making ability.
— There are some concerns about the shooting on this roster and whether it can translate to the postseason. Tobias Harris is making $36 million to be a spot-up shooter, a role he’s not particularly suited for.
Although Simmons got the bulk of the blame for last year’s postseason collapse, Harris was the 76ers’ No. 2 scoring option as they de-emphasized Simmons’ offensive contributions. Needless to say, Harris didn’t deliver, shooting 2 of 11 in a critical Game 5 loss to the Hawks and 8 of 24 in Game 7.
Since being traded to the 76ers, Harden is shooting just 40.2 percent from the field and has shot under 40 percent from the field in eight of his 21 games with the team.
He’s also shooting 47.6 percent on 2-pointers and 32.6 percent from behind the arc, marks that put him in bottom half of all NBA players.
With Harden taking half of his field-goal attempts from behind the arc, consistently knocking down the 3 is key to his success. He’s shot under league average (36.8 percent) in 13 of his 21 games with the 76ers while also shooting under 30 percent from deep in 11 games.
And according to ESPN’s Brian Windhorst, Harden’s “blow-by percentage” has decreased from the 89th percentile to 58th. Harden is still scoring 1.06 points per possession in isolation but it’s not uncommon to see more plays than usual where he can’t beat the big on the switch.
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Doc Rivers is one of the most decorated coaches of all time and is 98-53 in his tenure with the 76ers.
Despite coaching some of the best talent in NBA history, Rivers’ teams have been on the wrong end of the NBA’s most historic collapses. They have blown three separate 3-1 leads, three 3-2 leads and one 2-0 lead. He’s lost a Game 7 at home four times.
Conclusion: The 76ers should beat up on the inferior teams in the conference and while they won’t be an easy wins for the Bucks, Celtics or (gasp) Nets, unfortunately there’s not enough around Embiid and Harden to make this team a legitimate contender.
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