2023 RBC Canadian Open odds, predictions, PGA picks, and best bets at Oakdale

Anything big happen in golf recently?

The professional golf world was shaken Tuesday by the bombshell news that LIV Golf – stuck in a civil war with the PGA Tour – would be merging with their rival, the Saudi Public Investment Fund (PIF), bankrolling the new entity.

It’s obviously massive news that will dominate the golf landscape for the next several months, but beneath it all, there is still golf left to be played this week at the RBC Canadian Open – and money to be made for bettors.

The tournament, which is Canada’s national championship and the third-oldest event continuously run on Tour, will take place at Oakdale Golf and Country Club in Toronto – the first time the course has hosted the event (or any event period).

There won’t be any course history to look at, but with course data widely available, we can still get a general sense of how it will play as we try to make our picks.

Without further ado, here are our outright picks:

Matt Fitzpatrick (+1400, FanDuel)

If you were to hold a gun to my head and ask me to pick the winner of the Canadian Open, I would say, Tyrrell Hatton, who has finished inside the Top 20 of five straight events and has gained at least 6.68 strokes on the field in all of those tournaments.

But, 11/1 for a guy with only one PGA Tour win to his name – the 2020 Arnold Palmer Invitational, which featured wild and wacky weather conditions – seems a bit too short for me to bet him outright.

I still would have my hesitations about betting someone at 14/1 in a field of 156 players, but if you want to make an outright bet in this range, why not Matt Fitzpatrick?

The Englishman appears fully back to form after struggling through injury earlier this year, having placed Top 10 in three of his last six events – including a win at the RBC Heritage just under two months ago.

Over the last 36 rounds, Fitzpatrick is No. 1 in the field in putts inside 10 feet, which players will need to make on a course that is expected to have easy scoring conditions.

He’s also in the Top 10 in this field in weighted strokes gained both off the tee and on approach.

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Adrian Meronk (+4500, FanDuel)

I think most of the guys in the top 10 of the odds board have a good chance to win – Shane Lowry and Corey Conners are other plays I would consider at +2200 – but I generally don’t like making outright bets on guys who would normally be in the 40/1 range at a full-field event.

It’s more likely for a lesser-known player to win an event like this (though it’s hardly a weak field), so let’s look further down the board at Adrian Meronk, the 30-year-old, 6’6″ Polish star.

Meronk has three professional wins in the last 12 months, and while none of them have been on the PGA Tour, they’ve all been “country Opens” – the Irish Open, Australian Open, and Italian Open.

In all of those wins, Meronk fended off the world’s top players, beating Adam Scott by five strokes in the Australian and Ryan Fox by three in the Irish.

Could he add another one to the list in Canada?

He doesn’t rank out as high in the weighted strokes gained categories due to the competition he typically faces, but in raw total strokes gained, he is fifth in this field over the last 24 rounds.

In this year’s Honda Classic, which had a comparable (but slightly weaker) field, Meronk finished in a tie for 14th.

Eric Cole (+6600, BetMGM)

If you want to catch a guy in the middle of a hot streak, Eric Cole may be one to consider.

In what has been his first full season on the PGA Tour, Cole has seriously contended a number of times so far this year – including at the Honda, where he nearly won before losing a playoff to Chris Kirk in a wild finish.

And that performance wasn’t just a blip on the radar – in his last six events, he has four Top 25 finishes, including a T15 at the PGA Championship (a field that included all of the world’s best golfers).

The best part of his game has been around the green, which is not necessarily a stat I would weigh heavily at Oakdale (though, with no real course history, it’s hard to know for sure).

The appeal here comes from the fact that Cole has contended numerous times at similar-field tournaments this season and has some real win equity at 66/1.

Ben Martin (125/1, BetMGM)

Martin was quietly in the midst of an excellent season before recent stumbles at the Wells Fargo Championship (missed cut) and Charles Schwab Challenge (T57).

He lost strokes on the field in both of those events.

Still, he had gained in eight straight stroke play events before that, a stretch from February to late April that included Top 15 finishes at the Valero Texas Open, Corales Puntacana Championship, Honda Classic, and AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

Golf is a notoriously streaky game, and perhaps we may have missed our window to bet on Martin, but with his price depressing all the way to 125/1 following his recent struggles, I don’t see a reason not to sprinkle on him in Canada.

Martin is an excellent wedge player – 10th in this field in proximity from 75-100 yards – and is fifth in strokes gained on Par 4s between 350 and 400 feet.

With a number of short Par 4s at Oakdale – holes 1, 2, 8, and 10 are all in that range – Martin could rack up the birdies.