2022 World Series odds and picks: Mets still valuable despite Braves’ triumph

On June 1, the Mets had a 10.5-game lead over the Braves to win the NL East and were among the shortest favorites to win the World Series. What a difference four months makes.

Even a week ago, New York was still dealing at 5/1 to win it all at BetMGM after watching that division lead all but evaporate ahead of a weekend series with Atlanta. Now, after the Mets were swept by their division rivals, their title odds have lengthened to 7/1 entering Tuesday’s action – ranking fifth behind the Dodgers (3/1), Astros (4/1), Yankees (5/1), and, yes, those pesky Braves (5/1).

Those five clubs are the only ones dealing at shorter than 15/1, with the regular season ending Wednesday ahead of the wild-card round. New York seemed clear of that hurdle months ago, but after this late-season collapse, the Mets will be hosting a three-game series this weekend against the Padres – while the NL East champion Braves enjoy a first-round bye and home-field advantage in the divisional series.

Here’s a look at the latest World Series odds at BetMGM and a few teams worth betting ahead of this weekend’s postseason openers:

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MLB World Series odds (via BetMGM)

Atlanta Braves (+500)

Doesn’t this all feel a bit too familiar? A year ago, the Braves were below .500 before ripping off a historic run en route to their first championship in 26 years. This team was similarly below .500 before winning 14 straight in June and posting a 77-33 record (70%) in its last 110 games ahead of Tuesday.

This year’s group returns many of the same elements from last year’s title-winning squad. Fan favorite Freddie Freeman has been replaced by Matt Olson, whose no-doubter sealed last week’s series sweep over New York and marked his 33rd home run of the season. Austin Riley has elevated his game to a near-MVP level, while perennial MVP candidate Ronald Acuna is healthy ahead of this year’s postseason run after missing the 2021 playoffs with a torn ACL.

Even rookies Spencer Strider and Michael Harris – who will almost certainly claim the top two spots in the NL Rookie of the Year race – have injected new life into this Braves team, which will likely enjoy a first-round bye after overtaking the Mets in the NL East. We’ve seen this story play out before, and there’s still value at this price on a similar ending.

New York Mets (+700)

As bad as the last few weeks have been for the Mets, this is still a team built to win the World Series. It’ll just take a longer path to get there.

Jacob deGrom has been bumpy as of late, but he’s still arguably the best pitcher on the planet and should be stretched out fully for his first postseason in seven years. The same goes for Max Scherzer, who owns a 2.40 ERA in his last 13 postseason appearances. New York has quality rotation depth behind those two, while closer Edwin Diaz has been arguably the most unhittable pitcher in baseball this season.

The bigger question: can New York’s bats heat up in October? This lineup ranks seventh in OPS (.741) but just 16th in home runs (165) entering Tuesday, and it’ll likely need more pop to carry this group through what will likely be four rounds of action. There’s some risk here, but the ceiling is still sky-high for one of baseball’s most talented groups.

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Seattle Mariners (+2500)

This season has already been a resounding success for the Mariners, who snapped the longest postseason drought (21 years) in all of North American professional sports with Friday’s win over the Athletics. That doesn’t mean this team doesn’t have an encore in store.

The addition of two-time All-Star Luis Castillo at the deadline gives the Mariners a legitimate three-man rotation with Castillo, reigning AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray, and standout youngster Logan Gilbert – all of whom rank among the top 15 qualified AL starters in strikeout rate and SIERA. And don’t sleep on this deep and versatile lineup led by rising star Julio Rodriguez, who is one of this team’s six qualified batters with an OPS+ above 100.

Add to that one of baseball’s most efficient bullpens and consistent defenses, and you can see the recipe for a storybook run in Seattle’s long-awaited postseason return. It won’t be easy starting with a three-game road series in the wild-card round, but if the M’s survive that one? Watch out.