2022 NFL Week 6 predictions: Picks against the spread for every game

It was a trip to remember as the Giants completed the London Leap by defeating the Cheeseheads from Green Bay last Sunday. The cherry on top? Daniel Jones consoling Aaron Rodgers postgame — “Are you all right?” No, Daniel, he just had Kayvon Thibodeaux breathing down his neck all morning and lost as 8-point favorites.

The Ravens are 6-point favorites at MetLife Stadium this weekend, which seems high, but Vegas knows. They didn’t want to hang a 3.5 or 4 out there for us to smash into oblivion. Most of the advanced metrics say the Giants are winning on smoke and mirrors. They are bottom 10 in the league in run defense, pass rush, coverage, pass blocking and receiving, according to Pro Football Focus’ advanced team data. What that tells me is if they get behind with this lucky defense, they are dead meat.

In my inaugural bet in relief of the vacationing Dave Blezow, we are giving ’em the points. Lamar Jackson is more than familiar with the secondary blitzes of Wink Martindale, who was the Ravens’ defensive coordinator for years. No surprises this weekend.

The pick: Ravens -6

GREEN BAY PACKERS (-7.5) over New York Jets

Aren’t we getting a bit ahead of ourselves with an expected angry Packers team hosting? The Jets’ young weapons are solid, but they are still 21st in yards-per-play and ranked 32nd by PFFs standards. Do the implied odds really say the Packers would be just four-point favorites if this game were at MetLife? Let’s relax. The Pack is back, this week at least. They get the win easily here.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-8.5) over Pittsburgh Steelers

Why on earth are Kenny Pickett’s first two starts against Buffalo and Tampa Bay? The second-and third-ranked teams in terms of DVOA in the NFL get to feast on Pickett. The Steelers are 1-4 and needed five Joe Burrow turnovers to barely eke out a Week 1 victory. With Mike Tomlin making questionable decisions left and right, maybe he really does want to go to the college ranks and take some “big enough blank checks” from a few boosters. Take the road-favorite Bucs. This Steelers team has fallen, and can’t get up.

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CINCINNATI BENGALS (-2) over Saints

Jarvis Landry, Chris Olave, and Michael Thomas are all looking bleak to play this weekend for New Orleans. Would love to back the Saints at the Superdome, but it’ll be a bleak affair if none of them are a go. Joe Burrow is your guy this weekend, as this line could jump to 4 if those guys are ruled out.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-3.5) over Miami Dolphins

No, we don’t trust Kirk Cousins in Miami, but Skylar Thompson is not worth anyone’s hard-earned money. Buyer beware of a possible Teddy Bridgewater revenge game (43-21 ATS career) should he get past the concussion protocol. Given the scary scenes with Tua Tagovailoa a few weeks ago, I’ll assume he won’t play. Justin Jefferson has another field day against the third-worst passing defense in the NFL.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-5.5) over Atlanta Falcons

Marcus Mariota covered against Tampa Bay last week. Go figure. But the Buccaneers are just 29-29-2 ATS since Tom Brady signed with the team. The 49ers, on the other hand, are 35-25 since 2019. Their defense always shows up to play regardless of how poor their opposition is expected to be. The Niners are 8-4 ATS as favorites since Nov. 21. They show up, play hard and enjoy hitting bad teams’ quarterbacks. Chalk, chalk, chalk, it’ll end soon.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (+2) over Indianapolis Colts

Matty Ice, why have you gone so cold? If Frank Reich loses this one he will be on the chopping block as the next coach fired. Sure the Colts are at home, but where are they better than the Jaguars right now? The Colts are 32nd in offensive DVOA, backed by the 31st-ranked offense by Pro Football Focus. The Jags are about average — maybe slightly above at best — but the Colts shouldn’t be favored against anyone.

CLEVELAND BROWNS (-2.5) over New England Patriots

One of the toughest games of the week to bet. Can we just bet under 43.5? It seems that Bill Belichick is the only coach who could win games without a quarterback at all. New England is better than we thought, but still not better than the Browns. Nick Chubb lengthens his rushing-yards lead as he wears down the league’s 22nd-ranked run defense in rush yards allowed per game.

CAROLINA PANTHERS (+10) over Los Angeles Rams

The Rams are terrible, and the Panthers just got an upgrade at quarterback and (maybe) head coach. Coach Matt Rhule was a disaster and Baker Mayfield is the 36th-ranked quarterback (out of 36) by Pro Football Focus. The Rams’ Matthew Stafford isn’t much better (32nd), but the Panthers still have Christian McCaffrey and some receivers to spread the love to. Whether the Temple product PJ Walker can get the rock to his weapons is another question. The Panthers don’t win or ever flirt with winning, but I’ll take the big number for a hopeful backdoor spot.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (+2.5) over Arizona Cardinals

Whoa, Geno! Maybe this is what Ben McAdoo saw? Geno Smith has gone scorched earth on the NFL and has a team that really believes in him. PFF has him ranked as the top QB in the league by a lot. Look for a total shootout in Seattle that far surpasses the 50.5 expected total. With DeAndre Hopkins suspended for one more week, I’ll take the home dog in a coin-flip battle.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (+2.5) over Buffalo Bills

The bet of the week. All the Chiefs do as underdogs is cover. Since Mahomes replaced Alex Smith, they are 7-0-1 ATS as underdogs. Mahomes has also never been a home underdog. Sure, the Bills are furious that they lost this matchup last year and probably dropped a Super Bowl birth. They spent the whole offseason thinking about it, but that does not mean they would be worthy of a six-point spread if this game were in Buffalo. Arrowhead Stadium is a very difficult place to play, and the Chiefs are every bit the offensive juggernaut that they were when Tyreek Hill was running wild last year. Offensively, this should be a near stalemate, and the Chiefs’ defense is better than you think. Take the points at Arrowhead.

Betting on the NFL?

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-6.5) over Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys’ pass rush is dominant, but the Eagles have the best offensive line in the NFL. The top-ranked offensive line in pass blocking should do well here to slow down Demarcus Lawrence and Micah Parsons. Cooper Rush hasn’t been losing games for Dallas, but we know he can’t win them. Even if the pass rushers are running down Jalen Hurts, they won’t be able to keep up for long, as Rush leads another three-and-out.

Monday

CHARGERS (-4.5) over Broncos

Brandon Staley went from a favorite to win Coach of the Year to climbing odds for the first coach fired. This could very well be a loser-leaves-town match, as the media calls for both his and Nathaniel Hackett’s jobs. The Broncos are the better defense, but Russell Wilson is either injured or bad or both. Back the Chargers on ”Monday Night Football.” They have Keenan Allen back in the fold, and Austin Ekeler is the featured star of this team.

Blezow bye

Dave Blezow’s column is on its bye week. Here are his selections against the spread for Week 6:

Commanders, Giants, Jets, Buccaneers, Bengals, Dolphins, Falcons, Colts, Patriots, Panthers, Seahawks, Chiefs, Cowboys, Broncos.

Best bets: Jets, Patriots, Chiefs
Lock of the week: Jets (Locks 3-2 in 2022)
Last week: 9-7 overall, 2-1 Best Bets.