Renowned seismologist says Turkey-level disaster is possible in California

As the world continues to reel from the devastating earthquakes that killed tens of thousands of people in Turkey and reduced buildings to rubble, a renowned seismologist is warning that the same destruction can happen to cities sitting on the San Andreas fault line. 

“I want people to understand, that even here in California, we are not building buildings you can use after the earthquake,” said seismologist Dr. Lucy Jones, who has been dubbed the “Earthquake Lady.”

According to Jones, only 1% of the buildings in Los Angeles will collapse following a tremblor similar to what struck southern Turkey and northern Syria — but far more will be rendered uninhabitable. 

“In addition to the 1% collapsed, there would be another 10% that will be so badly damaged they will have to be torn down and another 40% damaged enough that we won’t be able to use them after the earthquake,” she said. 

In part, Jones blames the potential loss of over 50% of the buildings in all of Los Angeles on the state’s current building code, which, in her opinion, was created to keep a building from killing someone while allowing construction costs to stay as low as possible.

“If the building’s a total financial loss and you have to tear down afterwards, well that was your choice to make,” she said. “Like all of the new condos in downtown Los Angeles, there is nothing in the code that says we should be protecting the investment of those people who purchased those condos. It’s solely to make sure you can crawl out alive. And even then make mostly sure that you’re gonna crawl out alive. We can’t be perfect.” 

For years, she’s been urging lawmakers to adopt building codes that mandate developing structures that can be repaired. The aim is for more than human survival but also for a community’s recovery. 

“There was, in fact, just a building built in San Francisco, of affordable housing where he owners chose to go for the functional recovery standard,” Jones said. “Get a building a we can use after the earthquake, and it added .25% to the cost of the building. 

Two bills in the past five years proposed the higher building code standard in California, according to Jones. Both failed.