Partner Content | NFL Week 3 TD picks: Bet on Amon-Ra St.Brown to keep scoring
Bye weeks haven’t come into play yet in the NFL season, which means the pool of potential touchdown scorers is as expansive as it’s going to be all year.
The pregame narrative: Amon-Ra St. Brown has been perhaps the most consistent receiver in the NFL since the end of last season, Gabriel Davis is a red zone monster and Treylon Burks is establishing himself as the top target in Tennessee.
Check out our best NFL Week 3 TD picks for September 25.
Odds as of 2:15 p.m. on 09/23/2022.
NFL Week 3 TD picks
Best bet: St. Brown (+102)
A Detroit Lions passing offence led by Jared Goff isn’t always exciting — as evidenced by the quarterback’s 6.6 yards per attempt this season — but it effectively funnels the ball to St. Brown.
Only five receivers have more targets than the second-year receiver in 2022, and one of them (Amari Cooper) has benefited from an additional game played. Put another way, 33.8% of Goff’s passes have gone to St. Brown this year.
St. Brown doesn’t just get a lot of opportunities, he converts on them at an elite rate. He’s made at least eight catches in every single game since Week 12 of 2021 and he’s only failed to score a touchdown once — against an elite Denver Broncos secondary.
The Minnesota Vikings, St. Brown’s opponent on Sunday, have been up-and-down defensively in the early going, but they lack corner talent. The team’s starting corners are past-his-prime Patrick Peterson and Cameron Dantzler Sr., who is far from an impact player.
Based on his recent production, St. Brown should be expected to score in most of his starts and his touchdown props are an excellent value at plus odds.
Key stat: St. Brown has a touchdown in six consecutive games going back to 2021, with no fewer than 10 targets in any of those contests.
Davis (+128): Davis appears good to go after missing Week 2 due to an ankle injury. As long as Davis is on the field, he’s a good bet to score. In his last eight games, he’s produced 10 touchdowns and failed to score only twice.
Buffalo’s offence is an absolute freight train right now, and Davis is locked in as a starting wide receiver who gets special consideration near the endzone. Davis should get his fair share of opportunities against a Miami Dolphins team that allowed 38 points last week.
Burks (+240): Burks has yet to score an NFL touchdown but this could be the week he gets his first.
The rookie leads the Titans in targets (11) and receiving yards (107). He’s facing a defence (the Las Vegas Raiders) that’s allowed 549 yards and four passing touchdowns in two games.
While he hasn’t shown it at the highest level yet, Burks also has the skills to be a top-notch threat in the red zone thanks to his size (6-foot-3, 225 pounds) and physicality.
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