The Toronto Blue Jays have won eight of 10 and seek to keep it rolling against the middling Texas Rangers.
The pregame narrative: Bo Bichette has been on a tear in September, Kevin Gausman has a chance to rack up punchouts and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is faced with a pitcher who gives up a tremendous amount of hard contact.
Here are our Blue Jays vs. Rangers prop picks for September 10.
Odds as of 8:58 a.m. on 09/10/2022.
Blue Jays vs. Rangers prop picks
Best bet: Bichette over 1.5 total bases (-120)
Don’t overthink this one — Bo is on an absolute heater and should continue producing against Texas’ spot starter today.
Toronto’s shortstop has dominated at the plate in September, slashing .515/.541/1.171 over eight games. No, that’s not a typo and yes, those are the best numbers of any player this month.
Bichette’s otherworldly 386 wrC+ in September has been forged by 10 extra-base hits including six home runs. He’s either scored a run or driven in one in seven straight and has been instrumental in the Jays winning seven of their last eight.
Rangers’ starter Kohei Arihara shouldn’t inspire confidence in those looking to fade Bichette. He made three starts in August, giving up nine earned runs in 15 IP before being moved to the bullpen. Following the release of Dallas Keuchel, Arihara is returning to the rotation.
Arihara also pitched a fair bit for Texas last year before sustaining a shoulder injury — the numbers were just as underwhelming.
The Japanese right-hander had a 6.64 ERA in 40.2 IP and a hard-hit rate of 49.6%. For context, the league-worst hard hit % among qualified pitchers this year is 48.1% (German Marquez).
Key stat: Bichette has cleared this line in six of his past eight games.
Quick picks
Kevin Gausman over 6.5 Ks (-110): Gausman’s cleared this line in two of his last four outings while finishing with six punchouts in his other two.
His splitter remains among the league’s elite pitches, with a run value of -13 and strikeout rate of 42.6%.
We’re confident he cashes this prop against a Texas team that has the fifth-highest K-rate against righties (24.4%) since the All-Star break.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. over 1.5 total bases (-110): Vladdy has been struggling in September but Arihara should be the perfect bounce-back candidate for him. We mentioned how much Texas’ starter struggles with hard contact — Guerrero’s hard-hit % and average exit velocity are both in the 94th percentile in MLB.
Guerrero also cleared this prop last night, with two hits including a double. He can get hot quickly, so let’s jump on the train with near-even odds.
Disclaimer This content was produced as part of a partnership and therefore it may not meet the standards of impartial or independent journalism.
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