Opinion | The takeaway from the winter meetings? The Blue Jays have some work to do

The Blue Jays didn’t make any moves during this week’s annual winter meetings, but a lot of other teams sure did.

Multiple top free agents went off the board over the last few days and there were even a couple of trades before front offices across Major League Baseball went their separate ways on Wednesday night.

The moves will have ripple effects throughout the American League. Here are some takeaways:

Pay now, or pay more later

Jays president Mark Shapiro and general manager Ross Atkins have long talked about how every contract extension requires compromises from both sides. A player gives up a bit of top-end earning potential in exchange for guaranteed money, the organization limits future expenses by taking on earlier risk for injuries or a drop in production. After seeing some of the contracts handed out in San Diego, the Jays might want to think long and hard about upping the offers to their young core sooner than later.

The Yankees and Red Sox had opportunities to lock up franchise players Aaron Judge and Xander Bogaerts earlier this spring. At one point, Boston reportedly offered a four-year deal worth $90 million (U.S.) while Yankees GM Brian Cashman offered Judge $230 million. Judge cashed in this week for $360 million while Bogaerts left Boston for $280 million.

The Jays are facing a potential doomsday scenario in three years when both Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette become eligible for free agency. If both players hit the market, it seems almost guaranteed at least one will leave. If the Jays get one signed before then, perhaps there’s a chance of keeping both. Either way, barring a major injury, the asking prices are only going up from here.

Starters move first

There was a slew of deals handed out this week to starting pitchers. Justin Verlander represented the top end of that market, but several tiers below is where most of the action took place as Andrew Heaney, Jose Quintana, Kyle Gibson and Jameson Taillon were among those to come off the board.

What does the early activity tell us? Well, with so many organizations desperate for arms it appears to be another indication that trading for starters is something that most teams would like to avoid because the costs are high and there aren’t a lot of great options available.

The Angels continue to insist that Shohei Ohtani isn’t going anywhere, and the Brewers reportedly aren’t trading Brandon Woodruff. The Marlins might be open to dealing Pablo Lopez but it’s a seller’s market and top pitching is hard to come by, which explains why even back-end starters are getting signed to long-term deals.

Clarity with the Cards

Willson Contreras’ $87.5-million deal ruled out the St. Louis Cardinals as a trading partner for the Jays, but several other teams should have renewed interest in their young catchers now that one of the top options is off the board. The Astros, Guardians, Diamondbacks and Minnesota Twins are among those still looking for help behind the plate.

It had long been assumed the Jays would try to trade Alejandro Kirk or Gabriel Moreno to the Cardinals for someone like outfielder Lars Nootbar but, according to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Dispatch, the most recent discussions centred around dealing Danny Jansen for closer Ryan Helsley. That would have fixed the Jays’ pen and likely would have resulted in the other roster holes getting filled via free agency.

From this vantage point, a deal with the Guardians still makes the most sense. Cleveland has excess pitching and a big hole behind the plate. One would think these tightly knit front offices would be able to work something out, but Oakland catcher Sean Murphy being on the block presents another potential obstacle.

Competitive balance tax

Considering the lack of transactions, the biggest development for the Jays this week might have been Shapiro boldly stating the tax would not be an obstacle for his team’s future payrolls. While Shapiro stopped short of saying when, or if, the Jays would cross the luxury tax threshold, it was the first time he expressed a willingness to do it.

If the Jays were adamant about avoiding the tax, they would be hard capped at $233 million next season, but after that the CBT rises to $237 million in 2024, $241 million in 2025 and $244 million in 2026. The tax has been around since 2003 and the Jays have never come close to paying before. Will they next year? I doubt it, but Shapiro wants to give the impression that it’s at least possible.

I don’t think this means much in the short term. But if the Jays have some success over the next couple of years, it could increase their ability to re-sign both Guerrero and Bichette down the road.

Outfielders still in play

Thursday began with a report that the Jays were in “love” with free-agent centre-fielder Brandon Nimmo. The fit has always made sense with Nimmo’s left-handed bat a perfect complement to the top of the Jays’ order, especially because his presence in centre would have allowed Toronto to slide George Springer over to right. It’s a moot point now because the day ended with word that Nimmo reached an eight-year deal worth $162 million with the Mets.

With Nimmo off the board, the Jays could re-engage the Arizona Diamondbacks about a possible trade for outfielders Daulton Varsho, Alek Thomas or Jake McCarthy. Free-agent possibilities include Michael Conforto, Michael Brantley and Kevin Kiermaier.

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