March Madness picks: Two predictions for NCAA Tournament Sweet 16

It’s been an exciting NCAA Tournament so far and we close out the Sweet 16 on Friday night.

I thought the lines were pretty tight this round, so I bet only two games overall, both on Friday. 

One thing to remember is live betting is a great way to get out of a bet.

For example, I took the Duke moneyline against Tennessee.

However, I saw five minutes into that game I was on the wrong side.

When Duke got up by six, I was able to hit Tennessee +3.5 to get out of my original wager. 

Just something to consider when betting games this late in the season where oddsmakers don’t make many mistakes. 

San Diego State (+7.5) over Alabama

Betting against the top overall seed probably won’t lead to early retirement but I like San Diego State to keep this game close. 

Not many teams in the country have the athletes to stay with Alabama.

The Aztecs have a lot of long, athletic players who helped them finish fifth in defensive efficiency and first in effective field-goal percentage defense.

While those metrics could be a bit overblown because San Diego State plays in the Mountain West Conference, no one can argue this isn’t a very good defensive team. 

One thing to watch is these are two of the top 3-point defenses in the country.

The difference is San Diego State doesn’t shoot many 3s (266th), while Alabama takes the eighth most 3-pointers per game, according to KenPom. 

This is a big edge for the Aztecs.

In Alabama’s five losses, it shot just 30.7 percent from 3.

If San Diego State can hold the Crimson Tide to around 30 percent in this game, it not only has a good chance to cover 7.5 points, the Aztecs might pull the outright upset. 

San Diego State is one of the most experienced teams in the country and if it can limit turnovers and just shoot average from the field, I think the Aztecs can stay within the number in a lower-scoring slugfest. 

Betting on College Basketball?

Xavier team total over 72.5 points vs. Texas 

I picked Texas to win the title but this should be an exciting, up-and-down game. 

Texas is one of those teams that can play any style. It is comfortable slowing the game down in the half-court or getting out in transition, depending on the opponent.

Friday’s opponent, Xavier, likes to play fast. The Musketeers rank 33rd in adjusted tempo, according to KenPom. 

Given their recent results, there might be a misconception that the Longhorns will try to grind out a win.

However, Texas ranks 100th in adjusted tempo.

While that’s not as fast as Xavier, it shows Texas doesn’t mind getting up and down the court quickly with all of its athletes. 

The pace of this game really sets up for both teams scoring in the 70s.

I’m going with the over Xavier team total here because I have it projected at 76, so I see value in the 3.5-point difference.

It’s true that the Horns are a very good defensive team but they will be facing a Xavier offense that can shoot the lights out, ranking 12th in effective field-goal percentage and third in 3-point field goal percentage.

This should be a competitive game throughout and while I expect Texas to advance, look for Xavier to score at least 73 points in one of the more entertaining Sweet 16 matchups.