Inside Mail: O’Shea’s star is Running hot for The Hunter

TAB Fixed Odds punters have certainly sided with Lost And Running and Top Ranked with the sprinters holding more than half of all the money invested on The Hunter.

“They are the two the punters have come for,” TAB’s Andrew Georgiou said.

“Early in the week, the punters took the $6 we were betting about Top Ranked and Lost And Running eased in betting.

“But when Lost And Running got out to $3.20, the money came for him again.”

Lost And Running, who comes out of The Everest where he ran fourth to Nature Strip and then ran second to Eduardo in the Classique Legend Stakes, has been well backed including bets of $1500 at $3.20, $800 at $3.20 and $1000 at $3.10.

Former English sprinter Top Ranked makes his Australian debut in The Hunter and also been heavily supported with bets of $1209, at $4.80 and $500 at $4,80.

Late on Friday, Lost And Running was solid at $3 favourite with Top Ranked at $4.60.

THE BEST BARRIERS

The best barriers at Newcastle for the last 3 years (in order of wins)

900m: 2,3,5,1

1300m: 4,3,2,6

1400m: 4,1,6,8

1600m: 4,2,5,9

1850m: 1,3,6,2

2300m: 4,6,18

THE BIG BETS AND MARKET MOVERS

Race 1: Lord Of The Hunter $9.50-$7.50

Race 2: Ma And Pa $2.80-$2.70-$2.80 after bets of $1,200 at $2.80, $750 at $2.70, Charmmebaby $23-$14-$13, Sacred Command $4.40-$3.90 after bets of $500 at $4.40, $900 at $4.20, $500 at $4

Race 3: Casino Kid $9-$5.50-$6, Raoul $12-$5-$4.60 after bets of $400 at $12, $200x$400 e/w at $10/$3.30, $500 at $7, $1,000 at $6.50, $500 at $6.50, $2,000 at $5.50, $1,000x$2,000 e/w at $5.50/$2.10, $500 at $5, Satin Ruby $41-$23

Race 4: Ladies Gem $15-$12, Harvey’s Way $11-$3.90-$3.80 with bets of $200x$500 e/w at $11/$3.60, $300x$200 e/w at $7.50/$2.70, $2,000 at $4.80, $1,000 at $4.20

Race 5: Love Tap $6-$4-$4.20 with bets of $500 at $4.20, $500 at $4, Mightybeel $4.40-$3.80 with bets of $700 e/w at $4.40/$1.80, $500 at $3.70

Race 6: Shared Ambition $4.60-$4.20-$3.10 after bets of $500 at $4.60, $500 at $4.20, Torrens $11-$7.50-$8.50, He Runs Away $15-$9-$9.50

Race 7: Contributingfactor $10-$8 with bets of $500 at $10, $1,000 at $9, $500 at $8, Kokoro $9-$6.50, Festival Dancer $4.20-$4.40 with bets of $1,000 at $4.20, $500 at $4.20

Race 8: Lost And Running $2.90-$3.20-$3 after bets of $1,500 at $3.20, $800 at $3.20, $500 at $3.20 multiple times, $400 at $3.20, $1,000 at $3.10, $500 at $3.10, $500 at $3, Top Ranked $6-$4.80 after bets of $1,209 at $4.80, $500 at $4.80, Bandersnatch $8-$6.50-$7 with bets of $500 e/w at $6.50/$2.30, $500 at $6.50 twice, Dawn Passage $15-$13-$15, Criaderas $26-$21-$19

Race 9: Tinker McPhee $9.50-$7.50, Miss Einstein $23-$11, Grande Rumore $9.50-$8, Norwegian Bliss $3.80-$3.30

Race 10: Never Talk $15-$11-$12, Gravina $3.60-$3.90-$3.40-$2.70 with bets of $500 at $3.90, $400 at $3.70, $375 e/w at $3.60/$1.65, $400 at $3.50, $500 at $3, $600 at $2.90, $500 at $2.90, $500 at $2.70, Katalin $4.60-$3.90-$4 with bets of $500 at $4.60, $500 e/w at $4.60/$1.95, $400 at $4.20

EARLY QUADDIE

Race 3: 2,5,8,13

Race 4: 4,8,11,13

Race 5: 1,2,3,6

Race 6: 1,3,4

QUADDIE

Race 7: 1,7,8,10

Race 8: 1,2,5,16

Race 9: 4,7,11

Race 10: 4,6,7,12

PRICE CHECK

Godolphin duo Gravina and Katalin dominate the betting for the Newcastle closer. Gravina has been costly this spring but punters are coming for him again with the sprinter firming from $3.60 into $2.70 favouritism after some big bets including $500 at $3.90, $500 at $3, $600 at $2.90, $500 at $2.90 and $500 at $2.70. But stablemate Katalin also has her supporters with bets of $500 at $4.60, $500 e/w at $4.60/$1.95 and $400 at $4.20.

TRIAL POINTERS

Uncorked (race 1) is a cleverly-named daughter of Pierro – which is a wine – and like the champion racehorse and stallion, is also trained by Gai Waterhouse together with Adrian Bott. Uncorked was bought for $130,000 at the Magic Millions Yearling Sale and can book her reservation in January’s $2 million Gold Coast feature should she win the $61,250 first prize in the Max Lees Classic (900m). Uncorked, like so many before of the stable’s two-year-olds before her, is primed for a winning debut off a sterling trial win in a 735m heat at Randwick on October 29.

Tinker McPhee (race 9) is a Chris Waller-trained mare bred in Australia but who has her first four starts in New Zealand including a third in a Group 2 at Te Rapa preceding her fourth in the NZ 1000m Guineas on this corresponding day in 2020. Granted the daughter of Nostradamus was underwhelming in her two starts in Australia but she seems to have got her groove back judging on her two trials, winning the most recent one at Warwick Farm a matter of 10 days ago. Market watch advised.

SECTIONAL STARS

Casino Kid (race 3) lines up for his fourth consecutive TAB Highway on The Hunter undercard. The Jan Bowen-trained son of Casino Prince won his first Highway attempt at Randwick on June 12 and has finished second, fourth and fifth respectively at his next three visits to Sydney. Casino Kid was his usual fast-finishing self in his most recent Highway at Rosehill on Golden Eagle Day, coming from 12th of 13 at the top of the straight to get within a diminishing three lengths of the winner, Brave Enough. Should appreciate the extra 100m this afternoon.

Kiss The Bride (race 6) can break through the $500,000 earnings barrier if she runs up to expectations in the $300,000 The Beauford (2300m). The rich staying feature is sponsored by New Zealand Bloodstock which is fitting given that Bjorn Baker bought the mare for $200,000 at the firm‘s Karaka Yearling Sale in 2017. Kiss The Bride is a daughter of champion Waikato Stud resident Savabeel out of the Group 1 winning mare, I Do, who was ridden by James McDonald when she broke her maiden on debut at New Plymouth. As for Kiss The Bride, she went back from her wide draw in the Rosehill Gold Cup only to charge late to finish third beaten a length.

BEST BET

Shared Ambition (race 6) didn’t get much peace mid-race when up on speed in the Rosehill Gold Cup but he was still there at the 200m fighting hard before fading slightly to run fifth to the outstanding Think It Over. He has held his form over an extended campaign this spring and I feel he’s looking for the 2300m of The Beauford now. Shared Ambition gets the advantage of Dylan Gibbons’ 3kg claim which brings him in with 56kg. The likelihood of a soft track suits Shared Ambition and he gets his chance to score an overdue win.

VALUE BET

Pandano (race 10) will be fitter for two unplaced runs this spring. Forget he went around in the Quantico race at Randwick on Cup Day as he raced wide without cover from his outside barrier. Also drawn a little awkwardly here but he excels when racing on his home track of Newcastle, the soft surface is deal and he has the advantage of the claim for Jenny Duggan. He’s over the odds at $21.

THE JUDGMENT

NEWCASTLE

R6: The Beauford (2300m)

Paul Joice (Sky Thoroughbred Central): “He Runs Away is capable of causing an upset. Coming off a dominant win last start and with no weight will run the journey right out. Torrens continues to hold his form and rates as the main danger while Shared Ambition has the class to give this a real shake.”

Glenn Munsie (Sky Sports Radio): “I’m very keen on Kiss The Bride here getting out to 2300m after solid efforts at his last five runs. Went back from a wide draw last start at Rosehill behind Think It Over and made nice ground to finish third. Looking at a better draw here to allow to settle closer following leaders and very hard to beat for mine.”

Grant Palmer (bookie): “There has been a very strong push for Shared Ambition here who is one of the best backed runners all weekend. Opened at $4.20 and the punters hit us quickly. Into $3.20 now and he will only have to carry 56kg after the claim for Dylan Gibbons. King’s Charisma is the interesting runner for mine. Three starts in Australia and he hasn’t exactly set the world on fire but will finally strike a soft track here and I think that is the key to him. He goes on top for mine.”

Michael Sullivan (bookie): “Hard to recommend anything here but King’s Charisma comes out of a high rating Hotham where he was very well supported. Had to jump 2000m-2500m on that occasion so better set-up for this assignment. Shared Ambition the best backed early.”

Andrew Georgiou (TAB): “Shared Ambition has come in for support over the past 24 hours. Torrens was specked early when double figures were available.”

Verdict: Shared Ambition

R7: Spring Stakes (1600m)

Paul Joice (Sky Thoroughbred Central): “Arnaqueur should get the final shot at them. Expecting a truly run mile around Newcastle to really suit this colt. Lease can improve with the blinkers coming off and has the right formlines. Holstein also right in the mix.”

Glenn Munsie (Sky Sports Radio): “Extremely open race with seven last start winners engaged. War Eternal backs up from last Saturday when down the track in an open BM 78 against older horses where he covered plenty of ground. Bjorn Baker has shown no concerns by sending him around again and is well overs currently being at $14. Arnaqueur gets me in every start and this is by far his easiest assignment for a very long while.”

Grant Palmer (bookie): “Festival Dancer has won three in a row so we opened her as favourite but the punters haven’t warmed to her as yet. Kokoro is one they have come for, backing him into $6.50 after opening at $9. He ran on okay from the back on debut before putting them away with ease last start and he can go on with it here.”

Michael Sullivan (bookie): “Incredibly even race with good speed on paper. Loch Eagle looks the value in the race. He improved with the blinkers second up and now finds James McDonald. Gets the right run here and think he’ll appreciate the mile.”

Andrew Georgiou (TAB): “Open affair with Contributingfactor and Festival Dancer the first two horses backed when markets opened. War Eternal could go better with the sting out.”

Verdict: Arnaqueur

R8: The Hunter (1300m)

Paul Joice (Sky Thoroughbred Central): “Lost And Running will need some luck from the outside barrier but Hugh Bowman is the right jockey to have onboard. Clearly carries the best form into the race. Bandersnatch maps to enjoy the run of the race while Standout can figure with a good track.”

Glenn Munsie (Sky Sports Radio): “Today has to be the day where they press the button with Lost And Running and adopt his free-running style. Draws wide with a short run to first corner so expecting Hughie to carve across and be with lead. Class runner dropping back significantly in grade without the likes of Nature Strip and Eduardo to chase.”

Grant Palmer (bookie): “Lost And Running is the favourite here on the back of some good runs this preparation including last start where he ran second to Eduardo. He has drawn the carpark however and I won’t be diving into the $3. Dawn Passage is one who catches my eye at the $14 mark. He sat three wide no cover on a bog track in the 2020 Golden Eagle and still had the audacity to finish a length behind Collette and Icebath. If he can replicate that form here, he will be winning.”

Michael Sullivan (bookie): “We think Top Ranked is the best horse in the race just whether or not the 1300m will be too sharp. With that said, taken by the way he has jumped out for his Australian debut and he’s in the right hands with Annabel Neasham.”

Andrew Georgiou (TAB): “I like The Everest form and Lost And Running is the on topper for me. Holds slightly more early money than Top Ranked with the pair responsible for 52 per cent of the market.”

Verdict: Lost And Running

Originally published as Inside Mail and The Judgement: Expects give their final word on Newcastle